Baseball Musings: NL East Preview

April 02, 2006

NL East Preview

Here's my predicted order of finish for the NL East:

New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
Atlanta Braves
Washington Nationals
Florida Marlins

Last year, this division was the toughest to call. All five teams had a chance of winning, and it was a close race for much of the season. This year, it looks like two races; the Mets, Phillies and Braves going for first, while the Marlins see if they can surprise and pass the Nationals.

The Nationals played very well in their new city for half a season. The team had some talent, they were playing in front of large audiences again and those combined to propel them into first place. What they lacked was stamina and depth. That hasn't changed.

They hurt themselves both offensively and defensively with the Soriano trade. At the moment, they possess no superstar; the players that might aspire to that role keep getting hurt. If Nick Johnson, Jose Vidro and Jose Guillen play a full season, things might be different, but does anyone really expect that to happen?

Zimmerman is their rookie third baseman, and Washington fans can get excited about his chase for Rookie of the year. Unfortunately, he'll be starting next to Royce Clayton. Guzman goes down with an injury, and they can't improve the position?

Once again, the pitching will look better than it is due to the ballpark. Hernandez and Patterson are fine at the front of the order, but with injuries they are not deep. And when the offense and pitching get tired halfway through the season, there's no one to take up the slack. Whoever ends up owning the team is going to need to solve this depth issue before the team can reach the next level.

No one expects Florida to compete this season. They are taking the idea that a player in his twenties can play as well as a player in his thirties to the extreme. I actually think the starting pitching is going to be pretty good. In assembling this staff, the Marlins looked for all the right things. It just may be that the offense can't even support a good staff.

One thing they will be is prepared. Joe Girardi's been the most important acquisition for the Marlins. From the reports I've read out of spring training, he's relishing the opportunity to mold this team. The players will know what to expect from the opposing pitchers when they go to the plate, and the pitchers will be coached in how to get the batters out. Then it's just a matter of execution. There's some talent here, they need time to develop.

The Mets, for the second year in a row went out and added real talent to the team. Wagner and Delgado are two pieces of the puzzle New York failed to address last year. With their young stars maturing, Reyes getting coached by Rickey Henderson, and two more impact players in place, the Mets look like the team to beat in the NL East.

They are the best balance team in the division. While their offense may not match Philadelphia, it's only a hair behind. And their combination of starters and closer is clearly the best in the division. My only concern is the age of Glavine and the injury history of Martinez and Trachsel.

The Phillies lack offense at third base, but they don't need it. With Ryan Howard looking like the second coming of Dick Allen (at least between the lines), the Phillies may boast five players with over 20 win shares this season. The Phillies are close to the Mets, and two young players might put them over the top. If Ryan Howard and Ryan Madson do emerge as stars, that should close the gap with the Mets. The pitching will also be helped by Rowand in centerfield, who seems to catch everything between the gaps.

I'm just not overly impressed with the Braves. How well they do this season depends on further development by Langerhans and Francoeur. Neither has an outstanding OBA, so the runs they produce are costly in terms of outs. But they still have Giles, Jones and Jones anchoring the offense, and Smoltz and Hudson holding down the rotation. It's been a real dumb move betting against Atlanta over the last 15 years, but I just don't see them being as strong as the Phillies and the Mets this season.

On top of that, the Braves pitching depth chart shows six red crosses. Are they already feeling the lack of Leo?

So I see it as a close race between the Mets and the Phillies, with the youngsters for Philadelphia making the difference one way or another. Atlanta doesn't have the talent to compete with these two, but somehow they always manage to find some. The Nationals were in disarray over the off season, and that might lead to a young Marlins team with a little bit of talent moving into fourth place. The odds of that, look pretty low, however.

Posted by David Pinto at 08:15 AM | Predictions | TrackBack (0)

Comments

The Mets look good on paper, and the Phillies have some talent too. I'm not betting against the Braves until one of the other four teams makes me though. Somehow, they'll win it again.

Posted by: Pat D at April 2, 2006 10:15 AM

As usual, Met fans and Phillies fans don't seem to realize that the Braves success over the past decade and a half is due to pitching strenth. The Braves still have it-the Mets and Phillies do NOT. Every year the Mets go out and spend a fortune on overpaid fading superstars and then wonder why the get beaten again. The Phillies go out and build a home run hitter's ball park, then wonder why their substandard pitching gets teed off on. The Braves still have the best pitching staff in the National League and their offense is good, too. Anyone who bets against the Braves until they finally lose the division lead is sadly disillusioned as usual.

Posted by: Lew at April 2, 2006 11:59 AM

I disagree. The Mets does not have a good enough starting rotation to win the East. With Pedro's toe, Zambrano's lack of control, Glavine past his best and Bannister being 7th round pick rookie with average stuff I predict The Mets will finish around 500 which is not good enough to win the east. It will be the Phillies and Braves with the Phillies moving foward from last years showing to win the east.

Posted by: Tony at April 2, 2006 01:24 PM

The Braves have always had great pitching under leo mazzone -- that has changed. McDowell isn't gonna have the reclamation project that Mazzone managed every single year (last year was sosa for example).

The Mets haven't brought in anyone who's shown any signs of fading -- beltran/pedro were great the year before they got them, as were wagner/delgado. The worry with the Mets is the starting pitching, although that might be neutralized with the bullpen which could be dominant.

Posted by: Eric F at April 2, 2006 02:34 PM

I'm scared of Philadelphia this year, but good pitching always beats good hitting. Mets, will win that division by 2 games....and that 2 game difference, will be seen in the season series between the Phillies & Mets.

Posted by: Pregame Stats at April 2, 2006 07:07 PM

If the Mets can outhit their pitching I look for them to take the NL East. They have an awesome batting order especially if Beltran regains his 2004 form. If Pedro is not healthy all bets are off. Glavine should have a better record in 2006 with more offense added this season as he closes in on 300 wins. Don't know if Adam LaRoche is ready to play everyday but they do have Brian Jordan for backup if needed. Chipper will probably be the only infielder with much power. Whether Jeff Francoeur can regain his batting eye after starting well then tapering off at end of season will be interesting to watch.

Posted by: Andrew Godfrey at April 2, 2006 07:20 PM

David, thanks for the link to SportsLine. I didn't realize they had such excellent (read: up-to-date & accurate) depth charts!

Posted by: Jason at April 2, 2006 08:47 PM

RE: hurt Braves pitchers, 4 of the 6 date back to 2005. Hampton, Reitsma, Thomson, Boyer. If a pitching coach gets blamed, it would be Leo rather than McDowell.

Posted by: high&tight at April 3, 2006 08:26 AM

David -

Did you cite Ricky Hendreson's tutelage as a good thing? The guy is a sure HOF'er but he doesn't strike me as great coaching material. Hey, I could be wrong.

Posted by: crg@msn.com at April 3, 2006 11:15 AM

When Rickey was playing in the Atlantic League (Independent), I heard how much the players loved having him around. He was more than happy to coach and teach.

I don't know if Rickey has the personality to manage a team, but all reports are that he's good at teaching hitting and running.

Posted by: David Pinto at April 3, 2006 11:21 AM

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