Florida Marlins

Andrew Miller
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The chance of the Marlins losing over 100 games stands very high. The starting rotation might be one of the worst I've ever seen. Andrew Miller might be good this year, or he might need another year or two to develop. Henderickson is just bad. He's had a chance to prove he can pitch in the majors and failed. Olsen pitched poorly in 2007, as did Vanden Hurk. Nolasco is trying to come back from an injury. There's not a lot of upside on the mound.

The offense at least boasts Hanley Ramirez, an MVP candidate in 2007. But outside of Willingham and Uggla, there is no one else who contributes that many wins. The replacement of Cabrera with Cantu should cost the Marlins about nine games off the 71 they won in 2007. With just a terrible team, 62 wins is going to be an optimistic goal for the team.

Marlins Cheerleaders practice distracting the opposition.
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Washington Nationals

Matt Chico
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Washington Trots out a backward rotation this season. Lannan is projected to post the best ERA, but he's been temporarily sent to the minors. Chico is projected to pitch the most innings, and he's the fourth starter. The two best Washington pitchers from 2007, Redding and Hill are nursing injuries. They'll start Odalis Perez to open their new ballpark. Perez's 2007 ERA: 5.57. Still they'll probably perform better than the Marlins.

The offense isn't great, but there's room for optimism here. Nick Johnson takes over at first base. Manny Acta seems to be committed to putting the players with the best OBAs on the field, and Johnson does that very well. It would be easy to give Young the position and make Nick earn it, but Acta wants the selectivity in the lineup. Dukes and Milledge represent the Washington version of Moneyball. They pick up "problem" players cheaply. It worked with Dmitri Young last year. If it works in 2008, the Nationals might end up at the high end of their win expectation, between 70 and 75 wins.

Manny Acta and Fredi Gonzalez make for an interesting pair of managers to watch. Both came into the league the same year, both from coaching other AL East teams. Acta did a good job getting the most from his players, while Gonzalez seemed to let the Marlins slip into mediocrity. We'll see how both perform this season.

Atlanta Braves

Jair Jurrjens
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Some are predicting the Braves to make the playoffs, but I just don't see it. Their offense is good, but not as good as either the Mets or the Phillies. The rotation is a bit better than the Phillies, but nowhere near as good as the Mets. On top of that, the rotation is old. Smoltz already suffered an injury and starts the season on the disabled list. Glavine just isn't very good anymore. Hampton missed the last two seasons recovering from injuries. Even Tim Hudson is over 30, and age when pitchers need to adjust to falling velocity. There's just a lot that can go wrong there.

Jair Jurrjens should be fun to watch, however. He's the prize for trading Edgar Renteria, and he makes the team as the fifth starter. He also keeps a representative from the Netherlands Antilles on the squad. He's done a great job of keeping the ball in the park during his minor league career.

The Braves are building a strong team up the middle. McCann, Johnson and Escobar are the start of a young core that can contribute to the Braves for many years. They just need to find a centerfielder to go with them. Otherwise, this is really a corner offensive team, with most of the runs coming from Chipper Jones, Mark Teixeira and Jeff Francoeur. This team should win games somewhere in the mid 80s, but that won't be enough for the division. With the close wild card races, it's possible if the Brave can get to 89 wins they might find the post season.

Philadelphia Phillies

Kyle Kendrick
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The Phillies field the best offensive team in the NL East. All eight position players earned at least 12 win shares in 2007, with the big four of Utley, Rollins, Howard and Burrell collecting over 20 each. The Phillies have more than their share of superstars, coupled with good complementary hitters. There's no huge holes in the Phillies batting order. With the best players being relatively young, there's not much danger of a big fall off in production, either.

The rotation, however, contains some question marks. Hamels stands as a legitimate ace, but Brett Myers is making the transition back to the starting rotation. If he returns to his form of 2005-2006, that's a great 1-2 punch in the rotation. Jamie Moyer is old and fading. He doesn't have to be great, but at some point, three runs in six innings might turn into four, and then his value on this high scoring team goes way down. Adam Eaton is pretty close to useless.

Kyle Kendrick presents an interesting paradox. Kendrick neither walk nor strikes out batters, allowing a ton of balls in play. That usually leads to more hits, but the Phillies were very good last season at turning batted balls into outs behind Kyle. PMR shows that the balls in play against Kendrick were easy to field as well. So Kendrick may be a pitcher who doesn't fool batters enough to get a swing and a miss, but fools them enough that they don't get good wood on the ball. If this is a real talent, he's in good shape. If it's just that hitters haven't figured him out, he's in trouble.

At the other end of the game, Lidge went on the disabled list and Tom Gordon takes over the closer duties. Maybe we'll see Myers back there before the season is over. I see the Phillies winning in the high eighties and having a good shot at the division and wild card.

New York Mets

David Wright
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If you list Pedro Martinez with his two win shares from 2007, the Mets starting rotation still collected the most win shares among all the teams in the NL East. If you assume Pedro is healthy and can pitch like he did at the end of the season, fifteen win shares is not out of the question, and the Mets staff blows away the other four teams. On top of that, the Mets offense is just a few win shares behind the Phillies. They could even be better if Carlos Delgado rebounds from an off year.

The back of the Mets rotation is where they really shine, however. John Maine and Oliver Perez each posted eleven win shares in 2007. No other rotation shows a 3,4 or 5 starter cracking double digits. Maine may not have reached his peak, however, and we could see him move up this season. If Perez retains the improvements of last season, the Mets rotation will be one to rival the best Braves rotations of the 1990s.

The Mets should win the division, easily if indeed Pedro remains healthy. Of course, this was true last March as well.

Predictions

Here's how I see the NL East finishing:

1. Mets
2. Phillies
3. Braves
4. Nationals
5. Marlins

I don't see much chance of a surprise from the bottom two teams. The Braves, Phillies and Mets are close enough that injuries or a surprise career year could easily rearrange the top three. It should be a fun, three way race, or at least a two way race for the wild card if the Mets turn out to be as good as I believe they can be.

Correction: Fixed the name of the Nationals. My strat team is the Washington Senators. They're off to an 8-0 start and I got confused.