February 08, 2009
Howard Settles
Phillies Nation reports Ryan Howard signs a three-year, $54 million deal. So he'll make his $18 million a year, and the Phillies won't need to worry about arbitration with him again.
Assuming that arbitration adjusts slower than the free agency market, this should be a good deal for the Phillies. If they wound up in arbitration with Howard every year, they'd probably pay more than this total. However, it's a lot of money in a down economy. Given what Teixeira received from the Yankees, however, it seems about right. Ryan's OPS+ over the last three years are 167, 144, 124. Teixeira comes in at 126, 150 and 151. They're the same age, and Teixeira is moving in a better direction, plus is a better defensive player.
Of course, Howard is clutch, so his other short comings don't really matter. :-)
OPS+ badly overrates Howard and underrates Texeira. Howard posts a high-SLG, low-OBP OPS and plays terrible defense. Texeira post a much higher OBP and plays great defense. The difference between the two is certainly at least one win a year, and quite possibly two.