Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
February 25, 2009
Crack of the Bat

Mark DeRosa hit the first home run I've seen this year, a three-run shot against the Giants. I was reading a criticism of Nate Silver's Alex Rodriguez home run projection (hat tip RAB) and heard the bat hit the ball. It's amazing how you can tell a well hit ball by the sound off the bat. It's nice to hear that again.

As for Rodriguez, I've pointed out on this site that young home run hitter tend to flame out. If you look at the age 30 leaders, only Griffey (2nd) and Aaron (9th) made it over 600, and Ken did while flaming out. Alex finished his age 32 season in 2008, and he's over 100 homers ahead of both Aaron and Ruth. If A-Rod doesn't hit a home run for two years, he'll still be the all-time leader through age 34. Bonds is the only 600 home run hitter not in the top seven.

The Favorite Toy gives Alex a 49% chance of breaking the record. That's very good odds at his age. Three more good years and he'll be 100 away from the record (two great years puts him in the same position). Even with major injuries, Griffey hit 173 home runs over eight years. I would guess that Alex could hit 100 over five or six years if and when he gets that close.


Posted by David Pinto at 04:18 PM | Spring Training | TrackBack (0)
Comments

So if A-Rod breaks Bonds' record, do the steroid asterisks cancel each other out, leaving only A-Rod's collusion-aided asterisk?

Posted by: Sabertooth at February 26, 2009 08:27 AM

So if A-Rod breaks Bonds' record, do the steroid asterisks cancel each other out, leaving only A-Rod's collusion-aided asterisk?

Posted by: Sabertooth at February 26, 2009 08:27 AM

Can we just asterisk my second post?

Posted by: Sabertooth at February 26, 2009 08:29 AM
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