Baseball Musings: Probabilistic Model of Range, 2008, Third Basemen

November 09, 2008

Probabilistic Model of Range, 2008, Third Basemen

The Blue Jays and Cardinals made a challenge trade at the start of the season, swapping Scott Rolen and Troy Glaus. Defensively, at least, the Blue Jays came out on top. Here are the Probabilistic Model of Range team rankings for third base:

Team Third Basemen PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only
Team	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Blue Jays	4215	415	392.25	0.098	0.093	105.80
Mariners	4512	403	384.91	0.089	0.085	104.70
Red Sox	4232	440	423.21	0.104	0.100	103.97
Dodgers	4265	427	411.45	0.100	0.096	103.78
Angels	4374	391	377.04	0.089	0.086	103.70
Braves	4383	404	390.88	0.092	0.089	103.36
Rays	4264	420	406.66	0.098	0.095	103.28
Tigers	4536	471	458.72	0.104	0.101	102.68
Brewers	4354	396	387.21	0.091	0.089	102.27
White Sox	4409	463	455.46	0.105	0.103	101.66
Padres	4419	382	376.01	0.086	0.085	101.59
Astros	4292	408	402.20	0.095	0.094	101.44
Athletics	4285	385	380.25	0.090	0.089	101.25
Pirates	4683	445	442.19	0.095	0.094	100.64
Rockies	4535	412	410.31	0.091	0.090	100.41
Nationals	4417	416	415.43	0.094	0.094	100.14
Yankees	4349	379	378.81	0.087	0.087	100.05
Cubs	4156	341	342.34	0.082	0.082	99.61
Mets	4335	374	376.09	0.086	0.087	99.44
Indians	4513	419	423.48	0.093	0.094	98.94
Marlins	4338	370	375.82	0.085	0.087	98.45
Royals	4413	375	386.63	0.085	0.088	96.99
Phillies	4396	411	425.13	0.093	0.097	96.68
Rangers	4667	372	386.02	0.080	0.083	96.37
Diamondbacks	4224	350	363.76	0.083	0.086	96.22
Twins	4607	382	397.09	0.083	0.086	96.20
Cardinals	4597	416	432.51	0.090	0.094	96.18
Giants	4232	338	356.28	0.080	0.084	94.87
Reds	4299	337	356.45	0.078	0.083	94.54
Orioles	4540	421	446.86	0.093	0.098	94.21

I'm impressed that the Braves rank so high. Chipper Jones isn't known for his defense at third, but he played well this season.

Individual Third Baseman PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only (1000 balls in play)
Player	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Chone Figgins	2787	249	230.03	0.089	0.083	108.25
Andy Marte	1849	185	173.47	0.100	0.094	106.64
Evan Longoria	3059	304	286.97	0.099	0.094	105.94
Ian Stewart	1651	160	151.25	0.097	0.092	105.78
Adrian Beltre	3804	338	321.08	0.089	0.084	105.27
Carlos Guillen	2396	246	233.91	0.103	0.098	105.17
Jack Hannahan	2882	267	254.14	0.093	0.088	105.06
Mike Lowell	2717	279	266.51	0.103	0.098	104.69
Geoff Blum	1773	179	171.00	0.101	0.096	104.68
Blake DeWitt	2152	233	223.28	0.108	0.104	104.35
Joe Crede	2492	251	242.47	0.101	0.097	103.52
Bill Hall	2709	238	229.92	0.088	0.085	103.51
Chipper Jones	2981	274	265.13	0.092	0.089	103.34
Scott Rolen	2935	274	267.64	0.093	0.091	102.37
Kevin Kouzmanoff	4179	368	361.20	0.088	0.086	101.88
Alex Rodriguez	3377	297	291.79	0.088	0.086	101.79
Jose Bautista	2478	243	240.95	0.098	0.097	100.85
Greg Dobbs	1000	92	91.52	0.092	0.092	100.53
Ryan Zimmerman	2786	275	273.75	0.099	0.098	100.46
David Wright	4234	367	365.59	0.087	0.086	100.39
Willy Aybar	1048	108	107.77	0.103	0.103	100.21
Andy LaRoche	1573	152	151.71	0.097	0.096	100.19
Juan Uribe	1424	156	157.08	0.110	0.110	99.31
Aramis Ramirez	3664	290	294.47	0.079	0.080	98.48
Edwin Encarnacion	3673	288	295.33	0.078	0.080	97.52
Mike Lamb	1508	117	120.22	0.078	0.080	97.32
Brian Buscher	1564	141	145.30	0.090	0.093	97.04
Jose Castillo	2560	214	220.73	0.084	0.086	96.95
Garrett Atkins	2528	221	228.04	0.087	0.090	96.91
Mark Reynolds	3759	304	315.66	0.081	0.084	96.31
Jorge Cantu	3264	271	281.48	0.083	0.086	96.28
Alex Gordon	3583	316	329.28	0.088	0.092	95.97
Pedro Feliz	2972	280	292.73	0.094	0.098	95.65
Casey Blake	3318	288	301.47	0.087	0.091	95.53
Ty Wigginton	2013	175	183.48	0.087	0.091	95.38
Troy Glaus	3908	351	368.31	0.090	0.094	95.30
Melvin Mora	3362	320	342.26	0.095	0.102	93.50
Ramon Vazquez	1712	138	149.87	0.081	0.088	92.08
Rich Aurilia	1271	93	106.18	0.073	0.084	87.59

Adrian Beltre comes through here as an interesting player. With the run up in salaries the last few seasons, his $12 million contract for 2009 is pretty good. It's the same amount Mike Lowell will make next season. The two are also very close in terms of win shares. If a team is looking to upgrade their defense at third base, Beltre is a great pickup. The Mariners may be looking to move his contract. If the surgery he underwent in September helps with his hitting, he could be a very good pickup.

Evan Longoria certainly was a big part of the Rays defensive improvement. Unexpected major leaguers Blake DeWitt and Jack Hannahan also provided much needed defense. In addition, Andy Marte hasn't hit but he did field the position well in limited playing time.

At the other end of the spectrum, Casey Blake appears to be as overrated defensively as offensively. Alex Gordon and Mark Reynolds look like they won't have long careers at the position, given their poor play at a young age.

Posted by David Pinto at 06:53 PM | Probabilistic Model of Range | TrackBack (0)

Comments

I watched Pedro Feliz play 100+ times this season and figured he would have ranked higher. A big part of the reasons for his acquisition was based his defense

Posted by: joe in Philly at November 10, 2008 08:23 AM

Same for Troy Glaus- cardinal fans, after watching Rolen for 5 years, were almost universally very impressed by Troy's defense. I've heard very few cardinal fans express concerns with him in that area.

Is there anything that can be done about these awful spam advertisement things?

Posted by: SleepyCA at November 10, 2008 11:47 AM