Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
February 04, 2009
Sitting on the Dock of the Bay

Pat Lackey discusses why the Red Sox have not offered Jason Bay a contract extension:

So what gives? There are likely a few factors at play. In the linked article, it's mentioned that Matt Holliday and Vladimir Guerrero will both be free agents next winter as well. As good as Bay was last year, he turned 30 before the end of last season and he's still only a year removed from an injury-induced .247/.327/.418 year. His basic skill set, power and a knack for getting on base, are widely referred to as "old player skills," which could be an indication that his peak may not last long enough for the Red Sox to justify signing him to an extension.

It's also hard to ignore that Bay is making $7.5 million this year while guys with similar skill sets, like Adam Dunn and Bobby Abreu, are having a hard time pulling down a number even with that in free agency. As strange as it sounds, there just may not be many benefits for Boston in locking Bay up to any sort of long-term deal right now.

The Red Sox would be paying for Bay's decline. Unless the player is coming off a very high peak, those deals are usually not worth it.


Posted by David Pinto at 04:58 PM | Players | TrackBack (0)
Comments

His basic skill set, power and a knack for getting on base, are widely referred to as "old player skills," which could be an indication that his peak may not last long enough for the Red Sox to justify signing him to an extension.

Huh? Isn't the point of "old player skills" that those skills are still sustainable as a player gets older?

Posted by: dave at February 4, 2009 06:29 PM

Actually, "old player skills" are skills more traditionally relied upon by older players when foot and bat speed decline; they compensate with an experienced batting eye and better guesses about what pitches to expect (and hence when to start the bat early).

When a young player has old player skills, that's a bad sign because when their "young player skills" - i.e. speed - do decline with age, they won't have anything with which to compensate, because they've already "maxed out" there.

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Posted by: CKDennis at February 5, 2009 05:52 AM

When a young player has old player skills, that's a bad sign because when their "young player skills" - i.e. speed - do decline with age, they won't have anything with which to compensate, because they've already "maxed out" there.

Except someone like Bay doesn't have many "young player skills" to worry about. A loss of Bay's speed will have little impact on Bay's value.

Posted by: dave at February 5, 2009 01:33 PM
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