Baseball Musings: Downward Spiral?

February 27, 2009

Downward Spiral?

In the wake of Manny Ramirez's rejection of the latest Dodgers offer, I wonder if Manny might get himself in a downward spiral of offers. Los Angeles withdrew a $45 million offer, and as far as we know, there are no other firm offers on the table. Why would a team bid more at this point?

Let's say another team offers Manny a one-year, $20 million deal. I assume Ramirez would reject that as well, and the team that offers says, we're out of the running. As the season approaches and Manny wants a job, other teams might step up with less money.

At some point it might reverse, as Manny's price becomes low enough to actually spark some bidding. Maybe that's the mistake a number of free agents made this winter. They started asking for too much money, and not many teams were interested. Maybe at a lower starting point, more teams would take a look at a player, and the competition might actually bid up the price. When, as in Manny's case, the asking price was too high, there's nowhere to go but down. Manny is the housing market.

Posted by David Pinto at 08:53 AM | Free Agents | TrackBack (0)

Comments

I think the fact is that Manny sets the price for Manny. He doesn't care about the market or his past or who, if anyone, believes his price is right.

If I am a GM, I wouldn't even think of bothering with Manny at a price lower than Manny wants - hoping to get a bargin for my team. Even if he just takes the money, he'll bum around for a season and hope someone gives him his price next year.

He's got no class and no respect for the game.

Posted by: Tim at February 27, 2009 09:49 AM

I wonder the role of Scott Boras when it comes to Manny Rameriz. If Scott is on Manny's side, which seems like an utterly ridiculous proposition - surely he is smart enough to recognize the circumstances within they are working right now and you would think is pushing Rameriz all he can to accept these offers.

Or is Boras so deluded he's on Manny's side, being stubborn as all hell?

It's a shame - baseball deserves to watch Manny Rameriz play and hit. But he's being ridiculous and needs to be taught a lesson so I wonder which side will cave, or if neither, and Manny will sit out the season unsigned until say the deadline and then picked up for a stretch run somewhere.

Posted by: econprof at February 27, 2009 11:15 AM

I think Manny is just lookin' for a long term contract... a lil' job security and a lil' love.

Posted by: Devon Young at February 27, 2009 11:37 AM

It'd be nive if the only offer he got was 1 year, $5 million -- from Kansas City. Or maybe the Pirates.

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Posted by: Josh at February 27, 2009 03:05 PM

Manny would have a hell of a lot more job security if he stopped acting like Manny. Is there any precedence for this in the history of sports? A team offers a player a contract that would for 2 years, almost $50 million, with nobody else bidding, and that player says no? Perhaps Manny thinks the Royals will pony up $100 for 4 years? I thought his behavior in Boston was ridiculous, but this...

Posted by: tas at February 27, 2009 03:47 PM

It's nice that 30 GMs all value class and millions of dollars over making their teams better and winning championships. Oh, wait - isn't that largely the reverse of what their job is supposed to be?

Well, maybe 28 GMs - Boston and New York get less of a marginal improvement from Manny, already having good bats in the OF and DH. Detroit might end up with real budget issues, given the economic situation of their fan base, and I can see not wanting to write off Sheffield's deal under those circumstances. It's wrong from a baseball sense, of course; Manny would make them virtual locks for a tight Central race.

I hope that the Giants ownership will step up with a one-year offer. That would radically alter their chances of winning the division and hence their expected return on investment.

As far as Boras goes, my take is this:
1. He believes the Dodgers are sunk without Manny, now that everyone else is off the table. (He's absolutely right, too; the dropoff from Manny to Juan Pierre is the difference between first and last in the division.)
2. He believes that eventually, the Dodgers will be forced to cave. (Remember the "We will not pursue Alex Rodriguez now that he's opted out" bit? How'd that work out?)
3. In the meantime, Manny gets to skip the drudgery of spring training (and I have no doubt he's working out privately; say what you will, his reputation for keeping his hitting skills in tip-top shape and continuing to try to improve them is consistently praised).
4. Someone else might pry loose some cash and realize Manny's value. The economy might rebound with a stimulus package. "The sum of all human wisdom is contained in this: Wait and Hope."

It's different from Bonds; Bonds couldn't get a deal on any terms, whereas Manny will get a deal. As the saying goes, we've established what you are, we're just haggling over price.

Posted by: Subrata Sircar at February 27, 2009 05:17 PM

The quote, for those who aren't fans of one of my favorite books, is the end of the closing line to "The Count of Monte Cristo" by Dumas.

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