Although the overall number of free agents will likely be close to 200, the number of impact players in that group is fairly small. Going through the list yesterday of players who filed, I counted 21 that might make an impact. One of the more interesting hitters is Alfonso Soriano. Soriano played a career year in 2006. Through the 2005 season, his career averages were .280 BA, .320 OBA and a .500 slugging percentage. The 2006 season saw those averages come out at .277, .351 and .560. His batting average was right in line with his career, but OBA was well above his career average and 13 points above his previous high.

It turns out a player with a .320 OBA has a 4% chance of posting a.351 OBA over 726 plate appearances. So it's significant at the .05 level. Another way of looking at it is by a confidence interval, and the .351 is in the 95% confidence level for a player with a .320 OBA. In other words, Soriano was very close to his OBA in 2006 representing a new level of performance.

If I'm a GM interested in signing Alfonso, I'll want to know what changed. Why did he draw so many more walks than in 2006 than in previous seasons? Did the Washington coaches get him to change his approach? Was it that with a poor offense behind him, he got less to hit? If it was coaching, it this something that he's absorbed, or does he constantly need to be reminded?

At .350, with his power, he's a very productive player. At a .330 OBA, he's more of an out machine and certainly not a good leadoff hitter. My guess is that the teams convinced 2006 is real are the teams that wind up bidding for Alfonso. The other will find the money offered too rich.