Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
November 21, 2006
Probabilistic Model of Range, Shortstops, 2006

With the MVP debate raging and the Cincinnati Reds signing Alex Gonzalez to play shortstop, it's a good time to look at how PMR rates the #6 fielders:

Probabilistic Model of Range, Shortstops. Model is Based on 2006 Data Only. Minimum 1000 Balls in Play.
Player In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Difference
Adam Everett 3801 500 464.88 0.132 0.122 0.00924
Bill Hall 3311 404 375.73 0.122 0.113 0.00854
Craig Counsell 2274 310 290.98 0.136 0.128 0.00836
Yuniesky Betancourt 4225 501 474.18 0.119 0.112 0.00635
Jason A Bartlett 2570 348 333.97 0.135 0.130 0.00546
Julio Lugo 2103 253 241.59 0.120 0.115 0.00542
Ben T Zobrist 1395 173 165.55 0.124 0.119 0.00534
Khalil Greene 3007 352 335.93 0.117 0.112 0.00534
Clint Barmes 3411 404 386.61 0.118 0.113 0.00510
Juan Castro 1743 205 197.03 0.118 0.113 0.00457
Jhonny Peralta 4086 533 516.35 0.130 0.126 0.00408
Rafael Furcal 4257 538 525.08 0.126 0.123 0.00304
Omar Vizquel 3974 441 430.32 0.111 0.108 0.00269
Carlos Guillen 3808 465 455.45 0.122 0.120 0.00251
Jack Wilson 3485 454 447.27 0.130 0.128 0.00193
Juan Uribe 3553 429 424.28 0.121 0.119 0.00133
John McDonald 2024 237 235.34 0.117 0.116 0.00082
Bobby Crosby 2595 307 304.87 0.118 0.117 0.00082
Alex Gonzalez 2991 350 347.62 0.117 0.116 0.00080
David Eckstein 3222 385 383.63 0.119 0.119 0.00043
Orlando Cabrera 3903 433 432.08 0.111 0.111 0.00024
Edgar Renteria 3958 446 445.44 0.113 0.113 0.00014
Michael Young 4307 536 536.41 0.124 0.125 -0.00009
Jimmy Rollins 4206 499 500.05 0.119 0.119 -0.00025
Ronny Cedeno 3258 398 400.25 0.122 0.123 -0.00069
Hanley Ramirez 4016 466 470.25 0.116 0.117 -0.00106
Alex Cora 1338 163 164.76 0.122 0.123 -0.00131
Geoff Blum 1168 149 150.75 0.128 0.129 -0.00150
Royce Clayton 3338 400 405.01 0.120 0.121 -0.00150
Jose Reyes 3887 443 451.38 0.114 0.116 -0.00215
Angel Berroa 3670 412 420.32 0.112 0.115 -0.00227
Miguel Tejada 4027 465 477.25 0.115 0.119 -0.00304
Derek Jeter 4009 450 464.37 0.112 0.116 -0.00358
Stephen Drew 1475 161 170.45 0.109 0.116 -0.00640
Marco Scutaro 1773 207 218.44 0.117 0.123 -0.00645
Felipe Lopez 4245 438 469.73 0.103 0.111 -0.00747
Aaron W Hill 1273 140 152.71 0.110 0.120 -0.00999

It's pretty clear that Everett deserved the Gold Glove at shortstop this season. And as long as Tejada and Jeter keep hitting, they'll stay at shortstop.

I'm sure I'll get an earful from Boston fans about Alex Gonzalez's ranking. He's pretty neutral. I suppose after watching Renteria boot ground balls for a season, Alex looked like Ozzie Smith. Renteria also improved with his move to Atlanta, coming in fairly neutral as well. Gonzalez will be an improvement over both Lopez and Clayton in Cincinnati, but the Reds still need to find some offense.

And just to avoid an argument, if you look at just ground balls, Gonzalez does better, but not a lot better. He makes 8 more outs than expected on ground balls, so he's -6 on other types of balls in play. Everett still comes out on top.


Comments

i'm surprised at how well peralta rates. i think shapiro might disagree: "I know he didn't make many errors," Shapiro said, "but we went back and watched on video every single ball hit to him all year - and his range was among the worst of any major league shortstop. There were more balls that an average major league shortstop needs to get to."

http://fantasyhockey.usatoday.com/content/player.asp?sport=MLB&id=3695

Posted by: amos at November 21, 2006 06:33 PM

interesting, i think this list probably suggest your model still needs some tinkering.

u had the D-rays as terrible on defense last year in your overall chart but Zobrist and Lugo did very well? (i realize that they had attrocious D at 2b and 3b though)

Posted by: Rollingwave at November 22, 2006 12:50 AM

Amazed by how low Jose Reyes ranks.

Posted by: DRW at November 22, 2006 02:22 PM

Yeah, I recall that Reyes ranked poorly last season but I would have thought that he showed more improvement this year.

Posted by: Crank at November 22, 2006 02:32 PM

Could you post the groundball only data?

Posted by: Rally at November 22, 2006 02:52 PM

That's a huge gap between Drew/Counsell. Defensive metrics (ZR, UZR, PMR) have always liked Counsell, but with that sort of gap it might be worth it (to Brandon Webb at least) to keep Counsell around as an offense/defense platoon.

Posted by: Trev at November 22, 2006 05:11 PM

Am I to believe that Julio Lugo and Jhonny Peralta are better defensively at SS than Alex Gonzalez? I think your little formula needs some work!!!

Posted by: Sean at December 6, 2006 11:20 AM
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