November 21, 2006
Probabilistic Model of Range, Shortstops, 2006
With the MVP debate raging and the Cincinnati Reds signing Alex Gonzalez to play shortstop, it's a good time to look at how PMR rates the #6 fielders:
Probabilistic Model of Range, Shortstops. Model is Based on 2006 Data Only. Minimum 1000 Balls in Play.
Player | In Play | Actual Outs | Predicted Outs | DER | Predicted DER | Difference |
Adam Everett | 3801 | 500 | 464.88 | 0.132 | 0.122 | 0.00924 |
Bill Hall | 3311 | 404 | 375.73 | 0.122 | 0.113 | 0.00854 |
Craig Counsell | 2274 | 310 | 290.98 | 0.136 | 0.128 | 0.00836 |
Yuniesky Betancourt | 4225 | 501 | 474.18 | 0.119 | 0.112 | 0.00635 |
Jason A Bartlett | 2570 | 348 | 333.97 | 0.135 | 0.130 | 0.00546 |
Julio Lugo | 2103 | 253 | 241.59 | 0.120 | 0.115 | 0.00542 |
Ben T Zobrist | 1395 | 173 | 165.55 | 0.124 | 0.119 | 0.00534 |
Khalil Greene | 3007 | 352 | 335.93 | 0.117 | 0.112 | 0.00534 |
Clint Barmes | 3411 | 404 | 386.61 | 0.118 | 0.113 | 0.00510 |
Juan Castro | 1743 | 205 | 197.03 | 0.118 | 0.113 | 0.00457 |
Jhonny Peralta | 4086 | 533 | 516.35 | 0.130 | 0.126 | 0.00408 |
Rafael Furcal | 4257 | 538 | 525.08 | 0.126 | 0.123 | 0.00304 |
Omar Vizquel | 3974 | 441 | 430.32 | 0.111 | 0.108 | 0.00269 |
Carlos Guillen | 3808 | 465 | 455.45 | 0.122 | 0.120 | 0.00251 |
Jack Wilson | 3485 | 454 | 447.27 | 0.130 | 0.128 | 0.00193 |
Juan Uribe | 3553 | 429 | 424.28 | 0.121 | 0.119 | 0.00133 |
John McDonald | 2024 | 237 | 235.34 | 0.117 | 0.116 | 0.00082 |
Bobby Crosby | 2595 | 307 | 304.87 | 0.118 | 0.117 | 0.00082 |
Alex Gonzalez | 2991 | 350 | 347.62 | 0.117 | 0.116 | 0.00080 |
David Eckstein | 3222 | 385 | 383.63 | 0.119 | 0.119 | 0.00043 |
Orlando Cabrera | 3903 | 433 | 432.08 | 0.111 | 0.111 | 0.00024 |
Edgar Renteria | 3958 | 446 | 445.44 | 0.113 | 0.113 | 0.00014 |
Michael Young | 4307 | 536 | 536.41 | 0.124 | 0.125 | -0.00009 |
Jimmy Rollins | 4206 | 499 | 500.05 | 0.119 | 0.119 | -0.00025 |
Ronny Cedeno | 3258 | 398 | 400.25 | 0.122 | 0.123 | -0.00069 |
Hanley Ramirez | 4016 | 466 | 470.25 | 0.116 | 0.117 | -0.00106 |
Alex Cora | 1338 | 163 | 164.76 | 0.122 | 0.123 | -0.00131 |
Geoff Blum | 1168 | 149 | 150.75 | 0.128 | 0.129 | -0.00150 |
Royce Clayton | 3338 | 400 | 405.01 | 0.120 | 0.121 | -0.00150 |
Jose Reyes | 3887 | 443 | 451.38 | 0.114 | 0.116 | -0.00215 |
Angel Berroa | 3670 | 412 | 420.32 | 0.112 | 0.115 | -0.00227 |
Miguel Tejada | 4027 | 465 | 477.25 | 0.115 | 0.119 | -0.00304 |
Derek Jeter | 4009 | 450 | 464.37 | 0.112 | 0.116 | -0.00358 |
Stephen Drew | 1475 | 161 | 170.45 | 0.109 | 0.116 | -0.00640 |
Marco Scutaro | 1773 | 207 | 218.44 | 0.117 | 0.123 | -0.00645 |
Felipe Lopez | 4245 | 438 | 469.73 | 0.103 | 0.111 | -0.00747 |
Aaron W Hill | 1273 | 140 | 152.71 | 0.110 | 0.120 | -0.00999 |
It's pretty clear that Everett deserved the Gold Glove at shortstop this season. And as long as Tejada and Jeter keep hitting, they'll stay at shortstop.
I'm sure I'll get an earful from Boston fans about Alex Gonzalez's ranking. He's pretty neutral. I suppose after watching Renteria boot ground balls for a season, Alex looked like Ozzie Smith. Renteria also improved with his move to Atlanta, coming in fairly neutral as well. Gonzalez will be an improvement over both Lopez and Clayton in Cincinnati, but the Reds still need to find some offense.
And just to avoid an argument, if you look at just ground balls, Gonzalez does better, but not a lot better. He makes 8 more outs than expected on ground balls, so he's -6 on other types of balls in play. Everett still comes out on top.
i'm surprised at how well peralta rates. i think shapiro might disagree: "I know he didn't make many errors," Shapiro said, "but we went back and watched on video every single ball hit to him all year - and his range was among the worst of any major league shortstop. There were more balls that an average major league shortstop needs to get to."
http://fantasyhockey.usatoday.com/content/player.asp?sport=MLB&id=3695
interesting, i think this list probably suggest your model still needs some tinkering.
u had the D-rays as terrible on defense last year in your overall chart but Zobrist and Lugo did very well? (i realize that they had attrocious D at 2b and 3b though)
Amazed by how low Jose Reyes ranks.
Yeah, I recall that Reyes ranked poorly last season but I would have thought that he showed more improvement this year.
Could you post the groundball only data?
That's a huge gap between Drew/Counsell. Defensive metrics (ZR, UZR, PMR) have always liked Counsell, but with that sort of gap it might be worth it (to Brandon Webb at least) to keep Counsell around as an offense/defense platoon.
Am I to believe that Julio Lugo and Jhonny Peralta are better defensively at SS than Alex Gonzalez? I think your little formula needs some work!!!