Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
March 24, 2008
Two Views on Cabrera

J.C. Bradbury at sabernomics.com loves the Miguel Cabrera deal:

As hard as this is to believe, given the contract size, this is an amazing deal for Dave Dombrowski and the Detroit Tigers. I have Cabrera valued at $268 million over this time period, and this accounts for his first two years of the deal being restrained by arbitration.

In the comments to this post, Mitchel Lichtman disagrees:

Just because that is what he MIGHT get, does not mean he is WORTH that. Whether a signing was good or bad should be based on what a player is worth, NOT what he is perceived as being worth by other teams. If a player is overrated, based on what he would likely get as a FA, and a team signs him for that, or even less, then it just means that that team overrated the player also - and consequently it was NOT a good deal.

Cabrera is overrated because of his poor defense (even though, unlike a player like Jeter, it is well-known that his defense is poor), and the fact that he plays a slightly below neutral (to the left in the spectrum) defensive position, and for other unknown (to me) reasons. His WAR value is 3.5 to 4 wins. That ain't worth 20 mil a year. More like 16-18.

For the last two seasons, Baseball Prospectus (subscription required) pegs his WARP1 at 9.6 and 8.2, and his WARP2 at 11.0 and 10.0. The Hardball Times has his Win Shares over bench at 21 and 18, or 7 and 6 wins. For the moment, I'm agreeing with Bradbury on this, although I'd love to see why MGL rates Cabrera so much lower than these other two measures.

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Posted by David Pinto at 08:13 AM | Transactions | TrackBack (0)
Comments

This is a great deal for the Tigers. Miggy signed for basically half of what A-Rod got, and he's nearly TEN years younger. Of course it's doubtful he'll stay at 3B during the life of the deal, but wow, this is still some bargain considering.

Posted by: Mike A. at March 24, 2008 09:48 AM

Part of the problem with Cabrera is that he is a TOTAL butcher in the field. His offensive value it increased because of his position, but he is way way way below average at 3B. When he inevitably moves to 1B or DH, his value will decline.

Posted by: sabernar at March 24, 2008 10:09 AM

What are you thinking, Lichtman? A player is worth what a player is worth, period. If the market will pay $20 million for a player, then that is what the player is worth. Perception IS reality. Hindsight may tell us that a given player was over/under rated, but that's hindsight. Contracts are an effort in foresight- less precise and more risky than hindsight. Regardless, Cabrera is worth what the market is willing to pay Cabrera. Whether he 'earns' or 'deserves' it is an entirely different question. You can say all day long that a player 'isn't worth' his salary- but as long as at least one other team disagrees, then your team will not get that player. This happened with the Tigers and Cabrera- the Tigers 'overpaid' to sign draftpicks Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller. According to the slotting system, these prospects were not 'worth' what the Tigers paid them. According to the slotting system, the Tigers 'overpaid' to get them. So the Tigers turned a couple of 'overpaid' draftpicks and a handful of minor-league talent (total cost less than 10 million) into 2 years of Cabrera guaranteed- (before he signed this new deal). By all means, continue to criticize them for 'overpaying'. Every team in baseball would find room on their roster and in their lineup for Cabrera. The Tigers got him for a reasonable investment. Even in your own post, you say he 'aint worth 20 mill...more like 16-18'. Are you serious? Since Cabrera's deal averages about 19 mill, you're squabbling over a million bucks/year? FYI, Giambi made 23 million last year. ARod made 22; Jeter made 21. Helton, Abreu and Thome all made about 15. Cabrera's numbers are as good as or better than any of those guys- and he's younger. And on an AL Team he can move to DH, negating his defensive liabilities. No way this is a bad signing.

Posted by: chaz at March 24, 2008 10:39 AM

chaz, it depends on your perspective. If you're a team with limited resources trying to win the world series, a player is not necessarily worth what he is "worth". The large contracts you cite wouldn't be worth it for most teams- the yankees can simply afford to overpay for marginal wins.

I still think it's a good signing, though. risky, but high upside.

Posted by: josh o. at March 24, 2008 01:50 PM

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"For the last two seasons, Baseball Prospectus (subscription required) pegs his WARP1 at 9.6 and 8.2, and his WARP2 at 11.0 and 10.0. The Hardball Times has his Win Shares over bench at 21 and 18, or 7 and 6 wins."
**************************************

Those 6-7 wins could have been the difference between first and second place last year.

He's replacing a guy that had, essentially, zero Win Shares while making $6M last year. At 25, Cabrera has nothing but upside while he replaces a guy heading into the wrong side of 30 who has struggled to perform at a replacement level during his prime.

They don't give you extra wins at the end of the season for payroll efficiency. I know you want to say it's really about good business and you can't waste money over the long haul, but I look at the Tigers and I see an owner that has deep pockets and a very competitive nature (look at the Red Wings). Illitch is a very smart business man and if MGL wants to sit down and explain to him how he's wasting his money, go right ahead. I'll be over here waiting for Lil Ceaser to stop laughing at him.

Posted by: thumble9 at March 24, 2008 04:03 PM

Chaz, that's not market value. He didn't hit the open market, therefore there's no way this is market value.

"A player is worth what a player is worth, period"

What an empty statement. A player is valued at what he is paid, but is worth what his production dictates. You have come to misunderstand this. And what others were paid does not justify the payment of Cabrera. If you pay 90k for a Honda worth 20k and others pay 100k for a Mini Cooper worth 10k, you still overpaid, even if you overpaid by less. And that is essentially what Mitchel is getting at.

Also, not at all mentioned in all of this is that A-Rod has a massive media presence and has milestone achievements that have generated a lot of money for the Yankees. Miguel Cabrera has had nothing of the sort and is going to a market where even if he does reach milestone achievements, the fan base won't generate nearly as much money to watch it.

And David, on a separate note, remember that WARP's replacement level is too low.

Posted by: Adam B. at March 24, 2008 04:39 PM

"...going to a market where even if he does reach milestone achievements, the fan base won't generate nearly as much money to watch it."

Guess again, Adam. Detroit is the 11th largest market in the country and drew the 3rd highest attendance in the AL last year. Illitch has made money while "over paying" for talent in hockey, a sport with far less market value and opportunity than baseball. You're using the same arguments that didn't work when Seattle signed Ichiro.

The analogy should have had Cabrera as the Mini Cooper and if it's the last one left in the showroom you will overpay for it. You will also win the race as you blow by your neighbor with his cheaper Honda (Sorry, Cleveland).

Posted by: thumble9 at March 24, 2008 09:54 PM
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