Baseball Musings: Catching Some Z's

August 17, 2007

Catching Some Z's

27 June 2007: Carlos Zambrano delivers a pitch during game action at Wrigley Field, Chicago, Illinois, where the Chicago Cubs extended their winning streak by defeating the Colorado Rockies by a score of 6 to 4.

Photo: Warren Wimmer/Icon SMI

Carlos Zambrano became a very rich man today:

Cubs right-hander Carlos Zambrano has agreed to a five-year, $91.5 million contact extension, FOXSports.com has learned.
The deal, which includes a $19.25 million player option for a sixth year, gives Zambrano the highest average salary ever awarded to a pitcher on a multi-year contract.

It also gives him the highest average salary in Cubs history, surpassing left fielder Alfonso Soriano, who signed an eight-year, $136 million, free-agent contract last off-season.

Carlos got off to a rather poor start this season, posting poor strikeout, walk and home run numbers through June 1st, and a correspondingly high ERA. This made the Cubs look like geniuses for not extending him during spring training. But Carlos bounced back, and since that time hits strikeout and home run rates recovered, although his walks remain high.

Still, Zambrano's history is not one of improvement. If you look at his ERA by season, he peaked in 2004 with a 2.75 mark. And while he's been good enough to keep winning since then, that ERA has crept up every year. And it's not just luck as opponents increase their walks drawn and home runs against the pitcher over time.

Of course, pitchers who can reliably keep their ERA under 4.00 are tough to find, and the Cubs just locked one up for at least five seasons. He's better than anyone who signed for big bucks last winter, so it's perfectly reasonable to make him the highest paid pitcher in the majors.

Posted by David Pinto at 10:48 AM | Transactions | TrackBack (0)

Comments

Not just is he better than anyone signed last off season, he is FAR, FAR better than any free agent pitcher this coming off season.

He would have gotten a bigger deal if he went to the FA market.

Also... remember that he is only 26, making him just 32 at the end of the contract. It should be a good deal for the cubs.

Posted by: dave at August 17, 2007 11:35 AM

"... he is FAR, FAR better than any free agent pitcher this coming off season."

IF that statement is true--and IF nearly as big as Zambrano himself, since his VORP shows he hasn't even been the best pitcher on the Cubs this year--it's only true because a better pitcher who might have been a free agent after this season already signed an extension instead: Mark Buehrle.

Posted by: Mark at August 17, 2007 11:49 AM

Zambrano vs. Buehrle, VORP and SNLVAR by year
2007: 33.6 vs. 43.6, 4.3 vs. 5.0
2006: 53.8 vs. 16.1, 6.3 vs. 2.4
2005: 51.2 vs. 54.8, 6.8 vs. 5.7
2004: 62.8 vs. 54.8, 6.9 vs. 5.9
2003: 47.6 vs. 30.8, 6.5 vs. 4.2

Zambrano's 0.9 runs of VORP behind Ted Lilly, but that may have something to do with zero of Lilly's 9 bequeathed runners scoring. One would have to discount much of the last for years and argue that the first two months of the season were more indicative of Zambrano's ability than the last two to claim Buehrle as the better pitcher. Buehrle has yet to have a season that would best any of Zambrano's last four as measured by SNLVAR, so I'd argue that Zambrano is at least marginally if not decidedly better than Buerhle. There are of course concerns about Zambrano's walk rates, but you could make similar arguments about Buehrle's strikeouts.

Posted by: Ryne at August 17, 2007 12:26 PM

Funny, recent market weakness has lead to speculation that Zell's purchase of TRB would fall thru. I expected that to make it harder to extend Zambrano. Apparently, and unfortunately, not.

Posted by: abe at August 17, 2007 12:45 PM

since his VORP shows he hasn't even been the best pitcher on the Cubs this year

Sure... lets look a little beyond 3/4 of a season. But even still... I would bet money that Z ends up, at the end of this season, leading the Cubs pitchers in VORP.

If both Buehrle and Zambrano went to the free agent market, I can guarantee you that Zambrano would have gotten more money. It probably wouldn't have even been close.

Zambrano is 2 years younger.

Z has a career ERA+ of 130 compared to Buehrle's 123.

ERA+, each of the last five seasons (including 2007)
Z: 136, 165, 131, 136, 117
B: 108, 126, 143, 93, 135

Z was clearly better in '03, '04, and '06. Buehrle was better in '05, and has been better this year, but again, the season isn't over.

And as Ryne pointed out, Z doesn't really come close in terms of SNLVR.

Posted by: dave at August 17, 2007 12:55 PM

"it's only true because a better pitcher who might have been a free agent after this season already signed an extension instead: Mark Buehrle."

While entertaining, the discussion of who is better - Buehrle or Zambrano - is moot to the Cubs. Buehrle will not be available as a free agent this winter. The question is is Zambrano better than anyone who will be?

Posted by: rocksfan at August 17, 2007 01:26 PM

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