July 06, 2008
Pay Day
Brad Lidge comes off the roll of potential free agents as the Phillies sign him to a three-year, $37.5 million contract. Lidge already equaled his save total from last season without blowing a save.
Is it a good deal? For two years in Houston he was lights out. He blew just eight saves in 2004-2005, posting an ERA around two. Over the next two seasons, however, he blew 14 saves and saw his ERA go way up, mostly due to more home runs allowed. Through it all, however, he maintained his superior strikeout rate, and this season cut down on his walks as well. Most impressively, he's yet to allow a home run, despite playing half his games in Philadelphia. If he keeps pitching like the 2004-2005 Lidge, this will be a very good deal by the Phillies. It's also a good business move to reward success.
Closer is a funny position. Purely in terms of statistical impact, it makes no sense whatsoever to pay big money to someone who's going to pitch 60-75 innings a year. Most of those innings aren't particularly stressful, either: if you start a clean ninth with a 1-3 run lead, you'll be successful the vast majority of the time. Just look at the Tigers and Todd Jones, and the 2007 Indians with Joe Borowski.
At the same time, the closer occupies a very important psychological role. Players and managers like to have a shutdown guy for the ninth. Makes them feel more secure. And that, presumably, has some effect on team performance.
Is that feeling of security worth $12 million a year? I have no idea, and I don't know how you'd try to measure it.