The Mariners avoid arbitration with Felix Hernandez this year by signing him to a $3.8 million contract.

The Mariners and the right-hander have explored multiyear deals over the last two offseasons, but without success. Hernandez can't become a free agent until after the 2011 season.

Is Hernandez iffy enough that one-year contracts might be the smart way to go? He's had flashes of brilliance, and he's still very young. Of course, if he puts it all together this season and pitches like a Cy Young winner, it's going to cost the Mariners a lot of money to keep him around.

Felix must be very confident of his future to refuse a long-term deal at this point. If he believes he'll stay healthy, then staying on one-year deals will make him more money, as he'll hit free agency early in his professional career. Only time will tell if the Mariners are being too wary or Hernandez is being too confident.