Baseball Musings: Probabilistic Model of Range, 2008, First Basemen

November 14, 2008

Probabilistic Model of Range, 2008, First Basemen

The Probabilistic Model of Range survey continues with first basemen:

Team First Basemen PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only
Team	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Cardinals	4597	363	330.17	0.079	0.072	109.94
Rays	4264	337	309.47	0.079	0.073	108.90
Astros	4292	352	334.44	0.082	0.078	105.25
Angels	4374	348	332.57	0.080	0.076	104.64
Reds	4299	340	326.62	0.079	0.076	104.10
Orioles	4540	330	317.28	0.073	0.070	104.01
Braves	4383	309	301.26	0.070	0.069	102.57
Giants	4232	306	298.46	0.072	0.071	102.53
Mariners	4512	312	305.65	0.069	0.068	102.08
Padres	4419	314	308.13	0.071	0.070	101.90
Athletics	4285	287	282.84	0.067	0.066	101.47
Cubs	4156	339	334.40	0.082	0.080	101.38
Mets	4335	323	319.48	0.075	0.074	101.10
Pirates	4683	293	290.12	0.063	0.062	100.99
White Sox	4409	295	292.85	0.067	0.066	100.73
Red Sox	4232	300	298.07	0.071	0.070	100.65
Blue Jays	4215	346	345.24	0.082	0.082	100.22
Rangers	4667	292	292.72	0.063	0.063	99.75
Dodgers	4265	288	290.00	0.068	0.068	99.31
Rockies	4535	311	318.74	0.069	0.070	97.57
Phillies	4396	335	345.93	0.076	0.079	96.84
Tigers	4536	258	267.90	0.057	0.059	96.31
Brewers	4354	299	311.39	0.069	0.072	96.02
Royals	4413	270	282.47	0.061	0.064	95.58
Nationals	4417	279	292.73	0.063	0.066	95.31
Indians	4513	276	290.25	0.061	0.064	95.09
Yankees	4349	270	286.22	0.062	0.066	94.33
Marlins	4338	296	314.60	0.068	0.073	94.09
Diamondbacks	4224	292	311.45	0.069	0.074	93.76
Twins	4607	262	283.33	0.057	0.061	92.47

As you might expect from the ranking of the top two National League teams, Pujols and Berkman competed with the glove as well as the bat:

Individual First Basemen PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only (1000 balls in play)
Player	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Albert Pujols	3833	310	275.70	0.081	0.072	112.44
Carlos Pena	3428	272	250.39	0.079	0.073	108.63
Rich Aurilia	1398	94	88.21	0.067	0.063	106.57
Lance Berkman	3899	329	309.21	0.084	0.079	106.40
Mark Teixeira	4009	322	302.91	0.080	0.076	106.30
Kevin Millar	3607	264	250.96	0.073	0.070	105.20
Joey Votto	3686	300	285.79	0.081	0.078	104.97
Todd Helton	2272	165	158.79	0.073	0.070	103.91
Casey Kotchman	3659	268	259.14	0.073	0.071	103.42
Paul Konerko	3069	214	207.95	0.070	0.068	102.91
Kevin Youkilis	2835	212	206.26	0.075	0.073	102.78
Adrian Gonzalez	4302	307	300.33	0.071	0.070	102.22
Derrek Lee	3848	322	315.59	0.084	0.082	102.03
Daric Barton	3322	211	207.92	0.064	0.063	101.48
Carlos Delgado	4088	306	305.60	0.075	0.075	100.13
Lyle Overbay	3919	330	329.98	0.084	0.084	100.01
James Loney	4023	267	267.57	0.066	0.067	99.79
Chris Davis	1295	81	81.23	0.063	0.063	99.72
Miguel Cairo	1223	84	84.91	0.069	0.069	98.93
Adam LaRoche	3647	224	226.60	0.061	0.062	98.85
Aaron Boone	1040	61	62.74	0.059	0.060	97.23
Richie Sexson	2103	133	137.24	0.063	0.065	96.91
Ryan Howard	4254	322	336.79	0.076	0.079	95.61
Nick Swisher	1340	81	84.91	0.060	0.063	95.40
Prince Fielder	4133	280	293.92	0.068	0.071	95.26
Chad Tracy	1496	110	115.89	0.074	0.077	94.92
Ross Gload	2727	163	171.75	0.060	0.063	94.91
John Bowker	1607	104	110.60	0.065	0.069	94.03
Miguel Cabrera	3772	220	234.22	0.058	0.062	93.93
Ryan Garko	3323	198	211.16	0.060	0.064	93.77
Conor Jackson	1696	109	117.40	0.064	0.069	92.85
Sean Casey	1042	65	70.15	0.062	0.067	92.65
Justin Morneau	4289	242	261.41	0.056	0.061	92.57
Jason Giambi	2795	164	177.51	0.059	0.064	92.39
Garrett Atkins	1638	101	110.77	0.062	0.068	91.18
Mike Jacobs	2860	175	194.95	0.061	0.068	89.77

Year after year Albert Pujols shows his defensive skill at first base. Lance Berkman is up there, also, making the MVP argument between the two that much closer. Mark Teixeira also offers an excellent glove to go along with his fine offense.

The most surprising ranking to me, however, is Justin Morneau. Justin is still young and shouldn't have lost a step. He's someone worth looking at in more detail. Of course, at the very bottom is Mike Jacobs, giving Royals fans another reason to dislike the trade.

Posted by David Pinto at 08:51 AM | Probabilistic Model of Range | TrackBack (0)

Comments

And yet, how many times has Pujols won a Gold Glove?

Posted by: Joe G at November 14, 2008 12:40 PM

Look - Nick Swisher is near the bottom of the list

Posted by: Bandit at November 14, 2008 03:36 PM

Nitpick: you didn't change the header of the individual table; it reads Leftfielder. ;)

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Posted by: ajrgte at November 15, 2008 12:58 AM

Wow, +35 plays for Pujols? That seems crazy for a first baseman.

Posted by: Sky at November 15, 2008 04:20 PM

I don't have any trouble believing that Morneau is that bad at first. He's only ever been average at best by the numbers, and he has a poor first step with no quickness.

Posted by: ubelmann at November 15, 2008 04:53 PM