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November 18, 2008
AL MVP Preview
Joe Mauer First, the Red Sox own two viable candidates, Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia. Boston media and fans are pushing Pedroia, although Youkilis produced better averages. Second, the Twins also trot out two viable candidates in Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. In my opinion, the combination of Mauer's offense and defense are much better than Morneau's, but voters like the home runs and RBI that comes in the other package. Carlos Quentin, who might have been an easy first choice, missed the last month of the season. Josh Hamilton, the feel good story of the last two years, cranked out RBI at a very high rate. He also plays with a teammate, Milton Bradley, who put up better averages. In a year like this, where I suspect different regions will produce different results (the Minnesota players getting votes in the midwest, the Boston players getting votes in the East, Hamilton and Bradley getting votes in the west), don't be surprised to see Alex Rodriguez sneak in. Alex led the AL in VORP (subscription required) and was a close third in home runs at 35. It's possible that if the first place vote is split enough, and Alex turns out to be a consensus second choice, he could win the award. I don't think that will happen, mostly because the Yankees didn't make the playoffs. In a vote in which there are so many players so close, I would not be surprised if the consensus second place player won. Throw in Grady Sizemore and Cliff Lee to the mix, and there are possibly nine players who might pull down a first place vote. I like Mauer myself. My ballot would probably look like:
I'm very curious to see how this one comes out. The advantage of a Borda count voting system is that it produces a viable winner when there is no clear cut first choice. Comments
Youkilis moved to the cleanup spot after ramirez left and pretty much kept Boston in it. Switched to 3B when Lowell was out and did the job there. None of the other candidates can claim that. Tough for me to pick ARod, Mauer or morneau since they missed the playoffs. I think KRod deserves some attention since he allowed them to manage the game the way they did all season and get to 100 W's. Posted by: Bandit at November 18, 2008 09:25 AMCan't see Mauer over Youkilis after Kevin beat Joe by almost a hundred OPS points. But you could say the same about Pedroia, and he's probably going to get the award. Youkilis would be my choice, and my choice means exactly nothing. Posted by: Casey Abell at November 18, 2008 10:53 AMPosition and defense matter. Youk was an above-average defensive 1st baseman. Mauer on the other hand was an elite defensive catcher. That makes up for the difference in offensive value. Posted by: Tyler at November 18, 2008 10:56 AMI'm sure there are seasons I'm not thinking of, but this seems like the year with the least clear cut choice. Everybody who seems to be in the conversation has a teammate who is also in contention or some down check like a poor overall team performance (A-Rod, Sizemore). I can see as many as seven guys getting votes in the top two spots. I'll go out on a limb and call a Quentin upset mainly because he doesn't have a teammate being discussed that would split votes. Posted by: largebill at November 18, 2008 11:10 AMMauer had a bad range factor, though his zone rating was perfect, as were the ZR's for more than half the qualifying catchers. He's a good defensive catcher but nothing spectacular. Anyway, no difference in defense can make up for the enormous gap in OPS. The nearly hundred-point difference puts these two guys into different galaxies offensively. Youkilis was one of the best hitters in the league. Mauer wasn't even close. But Pedroia will get the award, so who cares? Posted by: Casey Abell at November 18, 2008 12:11 PMYouk had a great year and is an extremely valuable player, but I have to agree with Tyler, and I guess David too. Look at the offensive production of other catchers in the league to get a better sense of how valuable Mauer was. Of course, I don't worry about whether a team makes the playoffs, and I recognize that focusing on post-season teams is a reasonable approach. If we only look at post-season teams, then I have to go with Youkalis. Posted by: James at November 18, 2008 12:15 PMCasey, that depends on *how* you factor in defense. Compare Mauer to any feasible replacement player; now compare Youk to a feasible replacement. The drop-off from Mauer is enormous. It's not defensive prowess so much as the low offensive production at the position around the league that's makes Mauer so much more valuable. Posted by: James at November 18, 2008 12:17 PM@Casey Abell Except for the fact that the standards for Offense from a Catcher vs from a First Baseman are drastically different. Mauer (.315 EQA) actually barely edges out Youkilis (.313 EQA). And if you care about "clutchness", you can look at WPA totals for the season (from Fangraphs): Sorry, but I don't see Mauer's defensive abilities as anything particularly special. Fielding evaluations vary wildly, but the difference in offensive value is too great to overcome, IMO, even with those famous "positional adjustments" that have always been extremely controversial. It's all academic, anyway. Neither Youkilis nor Mauer will get the award. Posted by: Casey Abell at November 18, 2008 12:55 PMWhen looking at the candidates offensively, Mauer's 4.88 WPA dwarfs Youkilis' 2.33 WPA. So even with Youk's great offensive numbers they did less for his team in terms of winning games (which is a big part of value in my mind). Not to mention Youk's WPA/LI is greater than his overall WPA meaning in the higher leverage situations Youk preformed even less productively. And then you factor in all the responsibilities for a catcher versus someone who plays first, and in my mind Mauer blows Youk out of the water in terms of overall value. In all honesty, I don't have Youk coming anywhere near Mauer. Posted by: Nick at November 18, 2008 01:27 PMmy top five list would be: C. Lee may actually sneak into the 5 spot for me ahead of Morneau Posted by: Nick at November 18, 2008 01:34 PMPost a comment
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