November 04, 2008
Second Sacker Search
The Diamondbacks prefer to find a new second baseman rather than move Mark Reynolds off third base:
"There are more choices available at second base," Diamondbacks General Manager Josh Byrnes said. "To go get a third baseman, you assume the Reynolds move would go well. It probably would, but all things equal, we would prefer him to play third base. As we've looked around, there are more candidates to play second base."
Byrnes said the team isn't going to discriminate based on age or experience, noting that either a veteran or a prospect could work.
Looking at Win Shares for second baseman, it will tough to improve on Hudson. All the players with higher win shares at the position are locked up. Improving the DBacks offense will need to come from a different position.
Is Orlando Hudson really that hard to replace? True, his OPS this year was .817, but that's about forty points over his career number. He'll be 31 next year, which means he's not likely to improve.
His fielding is now greatly overrated, as often happens with aging players. His zone rating and range factor in 2008 were mediocre at best - .790 and 4.82 - and again he's not likely to get better.
Not to mention the injury bug, which held him to 107 games this year. All round, I'd say he's a slightly above average second baseman, and he may well get worse next year.
The D-Backs may take a step back at second base without Hudson. But it shouldn't be a gigantic loss compared to what they would probably have gotten from him in 2009.
One other point I should make about Hudson is that his batting numbers get a big assist from the great hitter's park in Arizona. This year it was almost ridiculous: .939 OPS at home, .718 on the road. The splits for his other two years with the D-Backs were also severe in favor of home cooking.
I'm a little sorry to rag on Hudson. He's a fun guy on a team and, who knows, he may have a career year next season. But in an even moderate pitcher's park he could easily put up a sub-.750 OPS, his glove is just not that good any more, and the lack of durability he's displayed throughout his career will probably not get better. I just don't think he's an enormous loss to the D-Backs.
I'm not saying he's difficult to replace. I'm saying he's difficult to improve upon with the players available via free agency. The DBacks need to improve their offense, and it's unlikely they'll make that improvement at second base.
Reynolds can't play 3B - he's not going to be able to play 2B.
The guy they discussed in the story, Ramon Vazquez, would probably replace Hudson pretty well offensively. He had a similar OPS this year. Vazquez isn't great with the glove but neither is Hudson any more.
As for an actual upgrade to offense at second, you're right, there aren't too many available second basemen. But I think the much more important priority is improving offense from first base and the outfield. Those guys just aren't producing big for Arizona, except for the hired gun they brought in from Cincinnati late in the year.
The D-Backs won't spend nearly what it takes to land Manny, but they should have really tried to keep Dunn for a few full seasons. Having Dunn all year would have been a significant upgrade to the offense. But he looks to be gone, as the club says it won't spend much money this winter.
