Baseball Musings: Probabilistic Model of Range, 2008, Pitchers

November 19, 2008

Probabilistic Model of Range, 2008, Pitchers

The survey of the positions ends with the pitchers. First the teams:

Team Pitchers PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only
Team	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Blue Jays	4215	181	161.32	0.043	0.038	112.20
Tigers	4536	187	171.99	0.041	0.038	108.72
Padres	4419	217	202.55	0.049	0.046	107.13
Royals	4413	170	161.90	0.039	0.037	105.00
Mariners	4512	161	154.23	0.036	0.034	104.39
Twins	4607	190	183.22	0.041	0.040	103.70
Mets	4335	200	192.92	0.046	0.045	103.67
Nationals	4417	193	186.24	0.044	0.042	103.63
Dodgers	4265	217	209.44	0.051	0.049	103.61
Cubs	4156	179	174.74	0.043	0.042	102.44
Phillies	4396	198	193.35	0.045	0.044	102.40
Rockies	4535	204	201.22	0.045	0.044	101.38
Cardinals	4597	205	203.96	0.045	0.044	100.51
Braves	4383	213	211.93	0.049	0.048	100.51
Indians	4513	169	168.95	0.037	0.037	100.03
Astros	4292	159	160.96	0.037	0.038	98.78
Marlins	4338	162	164.14	0.037	0.038	98.70
Red Sox	4232	154	156.88	0.036	0.037	98.17
Diamondbacks	4224	193	196.62	0.046	0.047	98.16
Pirates	4683	211	215.78	0.045	0.046	97.78
White Sox	4409	190	194.51	0.043	0.044	97.68
Rangers	4667	178	184.54	0.038	0.040	96.46
Angels	4374	148	154.21	0.034	0.035	95.97
Reds	4299	174	181.34	0.040	0.042	95.95
Orioles	4540	152	158.73	0.033	0.035	95.76
Yankees	4349	186	194.41	0.043	0.045	95.67
Athletics	4285	142	149.52	0.033	0.035	94.97
Rays	4264	114	124.63	0.027	0.029	91.47
Giants	4232	142	156.07	0.034	0.037	90.98
Brewers	4354	183	205.85	0.042	0.047	88.90

The Blue Jays not only posted an excellent team ERA, but helped themselves defensively as well. The Brewers staff depended more on the fielders behind them. In looking at the individuals, experience appears to be a key to doing well:

Individual Pitchers PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only (500 balls in play)
Player	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Jesse Litsch	569	39	24.20	0.069	0.043	161.16
Greg Maddux	649	59	39.59	0.091	0.061	149.04
Kenny Rogers	598	56	38.39	0.094	0.064	145.87
Livan Hernandez	674	31	22.40	0.046	0.033	138.39
Javier Vazquez	598	29	21.39	0.048	0.036	135.61
Felix Hernandez	577	32	24.02	0.055	0.042	133.25
Jeremy Guthrie	587	23	17.74	0.039	0.030	129.67
Jon Garland	684	31	24.42	0.045	0.036	126.92
Justin Verlander	598	23	18.21	0.038	0.030	126.33
Gil Meche	611	28	22.50	0.046	0.037	124.43
Kyle Kendrick	560	32	26.17	0.057	0.047	122.28
Zack Greinke	587	26	21.34	0.044	0.036	121.86
Bronson Arroyo	605	32	26.95	0.053	0.045	118.72
Cole Hamels	635	35	29.59	0.055	0.047	118.30
Joel Pineiro	505	28	23.71	0.055	0.047	118.07
Tim Wakefield	539	16	13.55	0.030	0.025	118.07
Tim Redding	572	22	18.86	0.038	0.033	116.64
Jason Marquis	554	35	30.06	0.063	0.054	116.42
Ryan Dempster	572	36	31.12	0.063	0.054	115.67
Joe Saunders	623	31	27.14	0.050	0.044	114.24
Glen Perkins	520	23	20.25	0.044	0.039	113.58
Vicente Padilla	524	20	17.70	0.038	0.034	113.02
Roy Oswalt	617	31	27.46	0.050	0.045	112.90
Brandon Webb	671	54	48.10	0.080	0.072	112.27
Aaron Cook	725	44	40.31	0.061	0.056	109.15
Jeff Suppan	589	28	25.91	0.048	0.044	108.06
Scott Olsen	640	20	18.55	0.031	0.029	107.84
Jair Jurrjens	589	37	34.69	0.063	0.059	106.66
Gavin Floyd	625	26	24.44	0.042	0.039	106.39
Zach Duke	669	37	35.21	0.055	0.053	105.09
Oliver Perez	527	17	16.28	0.032	0.031	104.42
Barry Zito	576	20	19.28	0.035	0.033	103.75
Paul Maholm	621	31	29.90	0.050	0.048	103.69
Matt Cain	630	27	26.14	0.043	0.041	103.30
Andy Sonnanstine	632	20	19.44	0.032	0.031	102.89
Hiroki Kuroda	598	39	37.92	0.065	0.063	102.84
Jon Lester	632	21	20.46	0.033	0.032	102.63
Kevin Millwood	569	25	24.56	0.044	0.043	101.80
Greg Smith	578	16	15.75	0.028	0.027	101.56
Brett Myers	554	23	22.85	0.042	0.041	100.64
Ted Lilly	574	15	15.03	0.026	0.026	99.79
Brian Bannister	603	30	30.11	0.050	0.050	99.63
Jamie Moyer	625	20	20.19	0.032	0.032	99.04
John Danks	569	24	24.25	0.042	0.043	98.97
Jarrod Washburn	512	20	20.39	0.039	0.040	98.07
Ubaldo Jimenez	572	35	35.69	0.061	0.062	98.06
Edinson Volquez	511	24	24.49	0.047	0.048	98.02
Mike Pelfrey	652	29	29.63	0.044	0.045	97.88
Kyle Lohse	650	30	30.67	0.046	0.047	97.81
CC Sabathia	687	27	27.67	0.039	0.040	97.59
Paul Byrd	608	17	17.52	0.028	0.029	97.04
Roy Halladay	713	31	32.28	0.043	0.045	96.03
Derek Lowe	644	39	40.83	0.061	0.063	95.52
Chad Billingsley	556	21	22.07	0.038	0.040	95.14
Joe Blanton	652	25	26.28	0.038	0.040	95.13
Odalis Perez	507	23	24.23	0.045	0.048	94.93
Dana Eveland	519	17	17.94	0.033	0.035	94.76
John Lannan	560	29	30.68	0.052	0.055	94.53
Armando Galarraga	525	13	14.04	0.025	0.027	92.57
Mike Mussina	613	28	30.47	0.046	0.050	91.88
Johan Santana	668	30	32.68	0.045	0.049	91.81
Ian Snell	522	21	23.11	0.040	0.044	90.85
Jered Weaver	513	10	11.02	0.019	0.021	90.71
Brandon Backe	512	16	18.01	0.031	0.035	88.85
Todd Wellemeyer	579	15	16.95	0.026	0.029	88.51
Carlos Zambrano	570	23	26.30	0.040	0.046	87.45
Nick Blackburn	658	24	27.47	0.036	0.042	87.36
Mark Buehrle	699	27	31.03	0.039	0.044	87.02
A.J. Burnett	613	24	27.68	0.039	0.045	86.70
James Shields	641	19	21.96	0.030	0.034	86.52
Carlos Silva	564	14	16.40	0.025	0.029	85.36
Dan Haren	610	24	28.16	0.039	0.046	85.21
Matt Garza	560	15	17.82	0.027	0.032	84.18
Edwin Jackson	582	12	14.35	0.021	0.025	83.61
Johnny Cueto	500	18	21.67	0.036	0.043	83.08
Ervin Santana	605	18	22.09	0.030	0.037	81.49
Ricky Nolasco	606	17	21.08	0.028	0.035	80.65
Nate Robertson	563	20	24.99	0.036	0.044	80.03
Randy Wolf	557	25	31.51	0.045	0.057	79.34
Tim Lincecum	562	17	21.44	0.030	0.038	79.28
Braden Looper	653	20	25.71	0.031	0.039	77.80
Brian Moehler	509	12	15.68	0.024	0.031	76.53
Aaron Harang	552	13	17.37	0.024	0.031	74.84
David Bush	567	18	24.87	0.032	0.044	72.37
Randy Johnson	531	12	16.86	0.023	0.032	71.17
Andy Pettitte	641	22	30.94	0.034	0.048	71.11
Cliff Lee	670	17	28.39	0.025	0.042	59.89
Daniel Cabrera	594	11	18.98	0.019	0.032	57.95
Ben Sheets	589	14	24.34	0.024	0.041	57.52

Jesse Litsch is young, but 2-4 are all veterans, and Maddux seems to come out near the top quite often. Mike Mussina, however, did not appear to deserve his gold glove. Remember to take this ranking with a grain of salt, since pitchers are not in the field that often compared to position players, and get many fewer chances to field balls. Luck is a much bigger factor in this group.

Posted by David Pinto at 08:49 AM | Probabilistic Model of Range | TrackBack (0)

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