November 16, 2008
Probabilistic Model of Range, 2008, Catcher
Our survey of the positions continues with catchers. Catchers don't field very many balls, so take these rankings with a grain of salt. First, the teams:
Team Catchers PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only
| Team | In Play | Actual Outs | Predicted Outs | DER | Predicted DER | Ratio |
| Brewers | 4354 | 71 | 63.52 | 0.016 | 0.015 | 111.78 |
| Mets | 4335 | 54 | 48.85 | 0.012 | 0.011 | 110.53 |
| Astros | 4292 | 41 | 37.24 | 0.010 | 0.009 | 110.11 |
| Pirates | 4683 | 53 | 48.61 | 0.011 | 0.010 | 109.03 |
| Twins | 4607 | 45 | 41.93 | 0.010 | 0.009 | 107.32 |
| Yankees | 4349 | 56 | 52.39 | 0.013 | 0.012 | 106.89 |
| Rangers | 4667 | 49 | 46.47 | 0.010 | 0.010 | 105.44 |
| Rockies | 4535 | 58 | 55.02 | 0.013 | 0.012 | 105.42 |
| Orioles | 4540 | 41 | 39.10 | 0.009 | 0.009 | 104.86 |
| Phillies | 4396 | 58 | 56.28 | 0.013 | 0.013 | 103.06 |
| Braves | 4383 | 63 | 61.73 | 0.014 | 0.014 | 102.07 |
| Diamondbacks | 4224 | 50 | 49.19 | 0.012 | 0.012 | 101.65 |
| Nationals | 4417 | 34 | 33.64 | 0.008 | 0.008 | 101.08 |
| Padres | 4419 | 64 | 63.44 | 0.014 | 0.014 | 100.88 |
| Mariners | 4512 | 42 | 42.22 | 0.009 | 0.009 | 99.47 |
| Dodgers | 4265 | 38 | 38.45 | 0.009 | 0.009 | 98.82 |
| Blue Jays | 4215 | 57 | 57.84 | 0.014 | 0.014 | 98.54 |
| Angels | 4374 | 44 | 44.74 | 0.010 | 0.010 | 98.35 |
| Tigers | 4536 | 58 | 59.27 | 0.013 | 0.013 | 97.86 |
| White Sox | 4409 | 39 | 39.88 | 0.009 | 0.009 | 97.80 |
| Giants | 4232 | 48 | 49.80 | 0.011 | 0.012 | 96.38 |
| Rays | 4264 | 50 | 51.91 | 0.012 | 0.012 | 96.32 |
| Red Sox | 4232 | 51 | 53.09 | 0.012 | 0.013 | 96.07 |
| Royals | 4413 | 49 | 51.24 | 0.011 | 0.012 | 95.62 |
| Marlins | 4338 | 58 | 60.75 | 0.013 | 0.014 | 95.47 |
| Indians | 4513 | 45 | 47.90 | 0.010 | 0.011 | 93.94 |
| Cardinals | 4597 | 47 | 50.66 | 0.010 | 0.011 | 92.78 |
| Athletics | 4285 | 28 | 31.42 | 0.007 | 0.007 | 89.12 |
| Reds | 4299 | 52 | 60.30 | 0.012 | 0.014 | 86.23 |
| Cubs | 4156 | 42 | 51.03 | 0.010 | 0.012 | 82.31 |
It looks like the Mets trade for Brian Schneider turned out to be a good one from a defensive standpoint. It also looks like rookie of the year Geovany Soto might have some things to learn behind the plate. Let's look at the individuals:
Individual Catchers PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only (1000 balls in play)
| Player | In Play | Actual Outs | Predicted Outs | DER | Predicted DER | Ratio |
| Wil Nieves | 1327 | 14 | 9.94 | 0.011 | 0.007 | 140.90 |
| J.R. Towles | 1252 | 8 | 6.01 | 0.006 | 0.005 | 133.04 |
| Kevin Cash | 1131 | 14 | 10.77 | 0.012 | 0.010 | 129.95 |
| Ryan Doumit | 2933 | 31 | 26.57 | 0.011 | 0.009 | 116.66 |
| Carlos Ruiz | 2517 | 42 | 36.54 | 0.017 | 0.015 | 114.95 |
| Guillermo Quiroz | 1176 | 8 | 7.01 | 0.007 | 0.006 | 114.11 |
| Chris Iannetta | 2633 | 35 | 30.83 | 0.013 | 0.012 | 113.52 |
| Humberto Quintero | 1321 | 15 | 13.41 | 0.011 | 0.010 | 111.87 |
| Victor Martinez | 1388 | 16 | 14.48 | 0.012 | 0.010 | 110.53 |
| Jason Kendall | 3988 | 67 | 60.93 | 0.017 | 0.015 | 109.97 |
| Jason LaRue | 1288 | 16 | 14.58 | 0.012 | 0.011 | 109.72 |
| Joe Mauer | 3805 | 41 | 37.60 | 0.011 | 0.010 | 109.03 |
| Ramon Castro | 1041 | 14 | 12.97 | 0.013 | 0.012 | 107.97 |
| Gregg Zaun | 1807 | 30 | 28.04 | 0.017 | 0.016 | 106.97 |
| Dioner Navarro | 2911 | 38 | 35.59 | 0.013 | 0.012 | 106.77 |
| Ivan Rodriguez | 2947 | 42 | 39.65 | 0.014 | 0.013 | 105.93 |
| Brian Schneider | 2575 | 30 | 28.52 | 0.012 | 0.011 | 105.19 |
| Jeff Mathis | 2351 | 33 | 31.46 | 0.014 | 0.013 | 104.90 |
| Josh Bard | 1253 | 21 | 20.28 | 0.017 | 0.016 | 103.56 |
| Ramon Hernandez | 3272 | 33 | 32.09 | 0.010 | 0.010 | 102.83 |
| Miguel Montero | 1191 | 15 | 14.77 | 0.013 | 0.012 | 101.53 |
| Chris Snyder | 2733 | 33 | 32.54 | 0.012 | 0.012 | 101.41 |
| Brad Ausmus | 1719 | 18 | 17.82 | 0.010 | 0.010 | 101.04 |
| Gerald Laird | 2419 | 24 | 23.76 | 0.010 | 0.010 | 101.00 |
| Jarrod Saltalamacchia | 1470 | 17 | 16.85 | 0.012 | 0.011 | 100.90 |
| Jose Molina | 2152 | 23 | 22.80 | 0.011 | 0.011 | 100.89 |
| Brandon Inge | 1541 | 21 | 21.16 | 0.014 | 0.014 | 99.24 |
| A.J. Pierzynski | 3428 | 31 | 31.53 | 0.009 | 0.009 | 98.31 |
| Brian McCann | 3470 | 49 | 50.81 | 0.014 | 0.015 | 96.44 |
| Miguel Olivo | 1509 | 19 | 19.85 | 0.013 | 0.013 | 95.70 |
| John Buck | 2902 | 30 | 31.39 | 0.010 | 0.011 | 95.57 |
| Yorvit Torrealba | 1819 | 21 | 22.19 | 0.012 | 0.012 | 94.65 |
| Kurt Suzuki | 3608 | 25 | 26.45 | 0.007 | 0.007 | 94.50 |
| Matt Treanor | 1561 | 23 | 24.36 | 0.015 | 0.016 | 94.43 |
| Nick Hundley | 1482 | 18 | 19.13 | 0.012 | 0.013 | 94.11 |
| Bengie Molina | 3272 | 36 | 39.00 | 0.011 | 0.012 | 92.31 |
| Geovany Soto | 3302 | 34 | 37.47 | 0.010 | 0.011 | 90.75 |
| Rod Barajas | 2262 | 24 | 26.60 | 0.011 | 0.012 | 90.24 |
| Russell Martin | 3655 | 31 | 34.63 | 0.008 | 0.009 | 89.52 |
| Jason Varitek | 3002 | 37 | 42.26 | 0.012 | 0.014 | 87.56 |
| Jesus Flores | 2116 | 13 | 15.03 | 0.006 | 0.007 | 86.52 |
| David Ross | 1238 | 17 | 19.69 | 0.014 | 0.016 | 86.35 |
| Kenji Johjima | 2617 | 20 | 23.53 | 0.008 | 0.009 | 85.01 |
| Yadier Molina | 3185 | 29 | 34.24 | 0.009 | 0.011 | 84.70 |
| Mike Napoli | 1931 | 10 | 12.08 | 0.005 | 0.006 | 82.77 |
| Paul Bako | 2272 | 20 | 24.25 | 0.009 | 0.011 | 82.48 |
| Kelly Shoppach | 2774 | 25 | 30.66 | 0.009 | 0.011 | 81.54 |
| John Baker | 1477 | 13 | 15.96 | 0.009 | 0.011 | 81.46 |
| Chris Coste | 1853 | 15 | 18.62 | 0.008 | 0.010 | 80.57 |
| Shawn Riggans | 1041 | 11 | 14.08 | 0.011 | 0.014 | 78.12 |
Here's another reason Joe Mauer gets my vote for AL MVP. He's not only a great offensive catcher, but he fields his position well also. For those teams interested in Jason Varitek, his ranking here is certainly another strike against him.
It's also interesting to note that Jarrod Saltalamacchia wasn't terrible behind the plate. I know there's much more to the position than the ability to field, but in this regard, Saltalamacchia shows a positive behind the plate.
It's interesting that Victor Martinez, thought of as a first-baseman-in-waiting, scores high - much higher, for example, than the Indians' other first-string catcher, Kelly Shoppach.