Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
November 16, 2008
Probabilistic Model of Range, 2008, Catcher

Our survey of the positions continues with catchers. Catchers don't field very many balls, so take these rankings with a grain of salt. First, the teams:

Team Catchers PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only
Team In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Ratio
Brewers 4354 71 63.52 0.016 0.015 111.78
Mets 4335 54 48.85 0.012 0.011 110.53
Astros 4292 41 37.24 0.010 0.009 110.11
Pirates 4683 53 48.61 0.011 0.010 109.03
Twins 4607 45 41.93 0.010 0.009 107.32
Yankees 4349 56 52.39 0.013 0.012 106.89
Rangers 4667 49 46.47 0.010 0.010 105.44
Rockies 4535 58 55.02 0.013 0.012 105.42
Orioles 4540 41 39.10 0.009 0.009 104.86
Phillies 4396 58 56.28 0.013 0.013 103.06
Braves 4383 63 61.73 0.014 0.014 102.07
Diamondbacks 4224 50 49.19 0.012 0.012 101.65
Nationals 4417 34 33.64 0.008 0.008 101.08
Padres 4419 64 63.44 0.014 0.014 100.88
Mariners 4512 42 42.22 0.009 0.009 99.47
Dodgers 4265 38 38.45 0.009 0.009 98.82
Blue Jays 4215 57 57.84 0.014 0.014 98.54
Angels 4374 44 44.74 0.010 0.010 98.35
Tigers 4536 58 59.27 0.013 0.013 97.86
White Sox 4409 39 39.88 0.009 0.009 97.80
Giants 4232 48 49.80 0.011 0.012 96.38
Rays 4264 50 51.91 0.012 0.012 96.32
Red Sox 4232 51 53.09 0.012 0.013 96.07
Royals 4413 49 51.24 0.011 0.012 95.62
Marlins 4338 58 60.75 0.013 0.014 95.47
Indians 4513 45 47.90 0.010 0.011 93.94
Cardinals 4597 47 50.66 0.010 0.011 92.78
Athletics 4285 28 31.42 0.007 0.007 89.12
Reds 4299 52 60.30 0.012 0.014 86.23
Cubs 4156 42 51.03 0.010 0.012 82.31

It looks like the Mets trade for Brian Schneider turned out to be a good one from a defensive standpoint. It also looks like rookie of the year Geovany Soto might have some things to learn behind the plate. Let's look at the individuals:

Individual Catchers PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only (1000 balls in play)
Player In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Ratio
Wil Nieves 1327 14 9.94 0.011 0.007 140.90
J.R. Towles 1252 8 6.01 0.006 0.005 133.04
Kevin Cash 1131 14 10.77 0.012 0.010 129.95
Ryan Doumit 2933 31 26.57 0.011 0.009 116.66
Carlos Ruiz 2517 42 36.54 0.017 0.015 114.95
Guillermo Quiroz 1176 8 7.01 0.007 0.006 114.11
Chris Iannetta 2633 35 30.83 0.013 0.012 113.52
Humberto Quintero 1321 15 13.41 0.011 0.010 111.87
Victor Martinez 1388 16 14.48 0.012 0.010 110.53
Jason Kendall 3988 67 60.93 0.017 0.015 109.97
Jason LaRue 1288 16 14.58 0.012 0.011 109.72
Joe Mauer 3805 41 37.60 0.011 0.010 109.03
Ramon Castro 1041 14 12.97 0.013 0.012 107.97
Gregg Zaun 1807 30 28.04 0.017 0.016 106.97
Dioner Navarro 2911 38 35.59 0.013 0.012 106.77
Ivan Rodriguez 2947 42 39.65 0.014 0.013 105.93
Brian Schneider 2575 30 28.52 0.012 0.011 105.19
Jeff Mathis 2351 33 31.46 0.014 0.013 104.90
Josh Bard 1253 21 20.28 0.017 0.016 103.56
Ramon Hernandez 3272 33 32.09 0.010 0.010 102.83
Miguel Montero 1191 15 14.77 0.013 0.012 101.53
Chris Snyder 2733 33 32.54 0.012 0.012 101.41
Brad Ausmus 1719 18 17.82 0.010 0.010 101.04
Gerald Laird 2419 24 23.76 0.010 0.010 101.00
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 1470 17 16.85 0.012 0.011 100.90
Jose Molina 2152 23 22.80 0.011 0.011 100.89
Brandon Inge 1541 21 21.16 0.014 0.014 99.24
A.J. Pierzynski 3428 31 31.53 0.009 0.009 98.31
Brian McCann 3470 49 50.81 0.014 0.015 96.44
Miguel Olivo 1509 19 19.85 0.013 0.013 95.70
John Buck 2902 30 31.39 0.010 0.011 95.57
Yorvit Torrealba 1819 21 22.19 0.012 0.012 94.65
Kurt Suzuki 3608 25 26.45 0.007 0.007 94.50
Matt Treanor 1561 23 24.36 0.015 0.016 94.43
Nick Hundley 1482 18 19.13 0.012 0.013 94.11
Bengie Molina 3272 36 39.00 0.011 0.012 92.31
Geovany Soto 3302 34 37.47 0.010 0.011 90.75
Rod Barajas 2262 24 26.60 0.011 0.012 90.24
Russell Martin 3655 31 34.63 0.008 0.009 89.52
Jason Varitek 3002 37 42.26 0.012 0.014 87.56
Jesus Flores 2116 13 15.03 0.006 0.007 86.52
David Ross 1238 17 19.69 0.014 0.016 86.35
Kenji Johjima 2617 20 23.53 0.008 0.009 85.01
Yadier Molina 3185 29 34.24 0.009 0.011 84.70
Mike Napoli 1931 10 12.08 0.005 0.006 82.77
Paul Bako 2272 20 24.25 0.009 0.011 82.48
Kelly Shoppach 2774 25 30.66 0.009 0.011 81.54
John Baker 1477 13 15.96 0.009 0.011 81.46
Chris Coste 1853 15 18.62 0.008 0.010 80.57
Shawn Riggans 1041 11 14.08 0.011 0.014 78.12

Here's another reason Joe Mauer gets my vote for AL MVP. He's not only a great offensive catcher, but he fields his position well also. For those teams interested in Jason Varitek, his ranking here is certainly another strike against him.

It's also interesting to note that Jarrod Saltalamacchia wasn't terrible behind the plate. I know there's much more to the position than the ability to field, but in this regard, Saltalamacchia shows a positive behind the plate.


Comments

It's interesting that Victor Martinez, thought of as a first-baseman-in-waiting, scores high - much higher, for example, than the Indians' other first-string catcher, Kelly Shoppach.

Posted by: JJ at November 16, 2008 07:01 PM
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