October 14, 2008
Looking Back
Adam Kilgore sums up the changing story lines of the ALCS:
The narrative of a playoff baseball series is severe, see-sawing tensions like a serial novel. The Red Sox won Game 1 of the American League Championship Series - the Rays were too young and too scared; Josh Beckett and Jon Lester loomed; the series was over. The Rays now hold the same one-game advantage - the Red Sox are too old and too injured; Beckett is finished and Lester mortal; the series is over.
These are two good teams fighting tooth and nail. I would not be surprised if the series is over in five games, and would be equally unsurprised if it went seven. We've seen in the play of Longoria, Pedroia and Ellsbury how fast players can go from hot to cold and cold to hot.
Not even the greatest team is good enough to consistently beat an above-average major league team 2/3 of the time. So it's kind of silly to "predict" a 7-game series will end with one team winning 4-2 in six games. Luck or exceptional circumstances frequently cause a series to end short of the max, but any reasonable projection based on actual skill levels would have all post-season series going 7 games.
