October 02, 2008
ALDS, White Sox versus Rays
The following table compares the 2008 seasons of the White Sox and Rays, opponents in the ALDS.
AL Ranks
| 2008 | White Sox | Rays |
| Runs/Game | 5.00 (5th) | 4.78 (9th) |
| Batting Avg. | .263 (11th) | .260 (13th) |
| On-Base Average | .332 (9th) | .340 (6th) |
| Slugging Pct. | .448 (2nd) | .422 (8th) |
| ERA | 4.06 (6th) | 3.82 (2nd) |
| Strikeouts/9 IP | 7.09 (4th) | 7.06 (5th) |
| Walks/9 IP | 2.8 (4th) | 3.2 (8th) |
| HR/200 IP | 21.5 (5th) | 22.8 (9th) |
Why do the Rays own a better ERA than the White Sox? Look at the three true outcomes. The White Sox pitchers perform better at striking out batters, denying them walks and keeping the ball in the park. Yet, Tampa Bay's ERA is almost a quarter of a run better. On the whole, the White Sox trot out better pitchers, but the Rays get better results.
The answer lies in the players on the field behind the pitchers. The defensive efficiency record (DER) measures the ability of fielders to turn a batted ball into an out. The Rays DER in 2008 came in at .710, the best in the majors. Chicago posted a .686 mark, 9th in the AL. Think of it as the difference between a team that bats .290 and one that bats .314. For every 200 balls in play, the Rays are going collect about five more outs. In fact, the rise of the Rays DER from 13th in the AL in 2007 to first in 2008 accounts for a large part in the drop in team ERA. The Rays can afford to allow more balls in play than the White because they are better at turning them into outs.
On the offensive side, neither team puts a lot of stock into hitting for average. They go about generating their offense differently, the Rays dependent on walks to get on base while the White Sox add to that tremendous power. It strikes me that the White Sox staff should match up well against the Rays batters. A staff that walks few batters going against a team with a walk dependent offense can cut the batters OBA closer to their batting average. If the team can't hit, why walk them? Especially if they're not a huge power threat, keep the ball in the strike zone and see what happens.
All this moves me toward picking the White Sox except for two players, Carlos Quentin and John Danks. Quentin's the one player on the White Sox who did everything well offensively. Without Quentin, the White Sox scored 4.4 runs per game in September and posted a 12-15 record. His absence takes a huge bite out of their offense.
Danks helped the White Sox win the battle, but possibly use the war. Danks only gets one start in the ALDS due to his pitching in the tie-breaker game on Tuesday. He's the one starter on Chicago good at K, BB and HR, making him the most likely to defeat the Rays. I like the odds of Shields, Kazmir and Garza against Buehrle, Floyd and Vazquez.
I also like the Rays resilience. They lost seven in a row at one point during the season and didn't panic. They lost Longoria and Crawford to injuries at the same time and showed depth as they kept on winning. In fact, the injuries to those players may actually help. Longoria never played a full major league season before. The full schedule might have taken a toll on him, but now he's well rested going into October. I'm looking for him to have a big series.
Despite the difference in their records, these teams are closely matched. Tampa Bay won the season series, but not by much:
Head to Head
| 2008 | White Sox | Rays |
| Wins | 4 | 6 |
| Runs/Game | 3.7 | 3.5 |
| Walks | 34 | 26 |
| Home Runs | 12 | 7 |
The White Sox out walked, out homered and out scored the Rays, yet Chicago lost the series. I would not be surprised if the same thing happens this time. The Rays, 57-24 at home, the best record in the majors, have that working in their favor as well. I give Tampa Bay a 60% chance of taking the series.