Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
October 24, 2003
Bet It Like Beckett

ESPN.com is reporting that Josh Beckett will indeed start game 6. After I wrote that nice post about McKeon this morning, I may have to retract it. A couple of years ago, before I started the blog, I did a study about starting on three days rest vs. four days rest in the post season. I'll try to find it when I get home and post it here.

But the gist of the study is that teams have less of a chance of winning throwing pitchers on three days rest than on four days rest. Now, of course, you have to balance that vs. a number of factors, including the quality of the pitcher, how you think he'll perform in the stadium and so forth. But the question boils down to, how does McKeon maximize the probability of winning at least one game out of two.

Let's say the Yankees and Marlins are evenly matched; each has a .5 probability of winning a game played between them. Then, we would expect the Marlins to have a .75% chance of winning at least 1 out of the two remaining games. But I don't think Redman against Pettitte is 50/50, and I don't think Pavano with three days rest against Mussina is 50/50. In fact, I think the Marlins expected winning percentage in those matchups is pretty low. In fact, I think if you put a tired Pavano vs. a rested Mussina in New York, I think Mike wins 8 out of 10 times. Redman stinks on the road, too, but I don't think Pettitte is as good as Mussina, so I'd rate a matchup between those two at the Yankees winning 7 out of 10 times.

Now, Beckett vs. Mussina, both on full rest, is about as 50/50 as you can get. Beckett on short rest vs. Pettitte, I have to give the edge to Pettitte, 55 to 45. If you do the math with these odds, I get a Redman/Beckett combination at 65% chance of winning the series, a Beckett/Pavano combination at 56% chance of winning the series. Now, you can play with the odds all you like, but the way I see it, McKeon is reducing his chances of winning the Worlds Series.

Update: By the way, if the Marlins were losing 3-2, pitching Beckett in game 6 would be the right thing to do. But up a game, where they can afford to lose game 6, I think it's a mistake.


Posted by David Pinto at 02:13 PM | World Series | TrackBack (1)