October 10, 2008
Playoffs Today
Take a late, long lunch if you live in Los Angeles to watch the Dodgers try to even the series with the Phillies, game time 4:35 PM EDT, 1:35 PM PDT. Chad Billingsley takes the hill against Brett Myers. Chad didn't hang many pitches this season, allowing just 14 home runs in 200 2/3 innings. He owns a fairly impressive record in day games in 2008, going 5-3 with a 2.17 ERA in 10 starts. In his 62 1/3 innings of day ball, he allowed just one home run and struck out 70 batters. The Phillies were selective against Chad in his one start against them his year, drawing five walks in six innings.
Brett Myers comes off a seven-inning, two-hit performance against the Brewers. He only struck out four in the game while walking three, so it wasn't a stellar performance. Very few of the Brewers balls in play found holes. In the strikeout category, Brett's LDS start was more in line with his last three regular season starts in which his strikeouts suddenly fell off. Florida and Atlanta were able to take advantage of that to pound him for 19 hits in 8 1/3 innings, but surrounding those were two starts against Milwaukee in which he allowed a total of four hits in 16 innings despite striking out eight. If his strikeouts are off again today, I suspect the Dodgers will do a better job with balls in the play than the Brewers.
In the night cap of the LCS double header, the Red Sox and Rays open their series with Daisuke Matsuzaka facing James Shields. Matsuzaka pitched a Nolan Ryan like year. He struck out a ton of batters, walked a high amount but was nearly unhittable. By keeping the ball in the park, he limited the damage done by the walks. Eight of his 12 home runs allowed came with men on base, however, as did 20 of his 43 extra base hits allowed.
That's pretty much the way he pitched against the Rays. In three starts, he posted a 3.00 ERA, good for a 1-0 record. He only lasted 15 innings however, as he struck out 17, but walked eleven. The Rays hit him a bit better than the average club with a .228 BA, but only managed two extra base hits for a .298 slugging percentage.
Shields pitched very well at Tropicana Field this season. Nine of his fourteen wins came at home, and his ERA dropped well over two runs compared to his road pitching. (I actually wonder why he's not starting games two and six, so he can pitch twice at home.) While he gives up many fewer hits at home, his home runs allowed really drop. He allows 14.8 per 200 innings at home, 32.1 away. That rate is less than half of what he allowed on the road.
The home/road split comes to the fore against Boston. At Fenway, he allowed 11 earned runs 4 2/3 innings, although part of that was coming out after fighting with Coco Crisp. At home against the Red Sox, Shields went 2-0, one of those a shutout. In 15 1/3 innings he allowed just seven hits and two runs, striking out 12 and walking two. The location of this game is a strong suit for both pitchers, so I expect a tough contest tonight.
Enjoy!
Correction: Fixed the game one start time.