Baseball Musings: Playoffs Today

October 18, 2006

Playoffs Today

It's the first do-or-die game of the NLCS as the Cardinals send Chris Carpenter to the mound to attempt to clinch a berth in the World Series. Rookie John Maine stands in opposition. Chris did not pitch well in game 2 vs. the Mets. The most telling statistic was his four walks and just one strikeout in five innings. Chris showed great control during the regular season, walking 43 and striking out 184. Maine is showing less control in the playoffs as well, walking seven in 8 1/3 innings after issuing a free pass once every three innings during the regular season.

My general feeling is that the Cardinals own the advantage with Carpenter. But he's pitched poorly enough in his last five outings that it's not a sure thing. I also wonder if Maine will make adjustments. With two post-season starts under his belt, you might think he'll have fewer butterflies this time around. This game could easily be a slugfest as a pitching duel.

The last time the Mets played a game six at Shea, it turned out to be one of the most memorable games in playoff history. I'm hoping tonight's is as good.

Enjoy!

Posted by David Pinto at 11:20 AM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)

Comments

The biggest thing I see making a difference is the fact that Maine is throwing at home, not a foreign environment. Carpenter can handle Shea, he's been around enough. Neither starter has been throwing well and both offenses explosive, so adding walks to the hits is like throwing gasoline on a fire... you are just asking for trouble.

Posted by: Kevin at October 18, 2006 11:47 AM

It just depends which Chris Carpenter shows up.

Posted by: Michael Sweeney at October 18, 2006 12:50 PM

re: a big reason for the Mets' Failures is Shawn Green in Right Field

Watching some of these games, it seems to me that Shawn Green has been a big part of the Met's problems with his limited range in Right Field. I saw the Mets play earlier in the year with Xavier Nady and also Lastings Milledge, and both of them have average to well above-league average range in right field.

Green visually lacks range and speed in right field, and a brief check on some of the statistical sites including the one here confirms that he is pretty much below league now that he is up in years, which is why the Dodgers moved him to first for a while.

I'm not claiming that Nady or Milledge could have caught Spiezio's two triples or cut off Encarnacion's ball to the alley, but they sure would have had a better chance than Green.

Green also seems oddly disconnected from the series. He's just a veteran brought in to play, unlike Cliff Floyd or Nady or Milledge or any of the real Mets. Green is just not a met. He's not invested in the outcome.

Also, Endy Chavez, who is a very speedy if not a good fielder, might have been better utilized in Right Field, than in Left Field, despite his arm problems. I certainly would have put Green in left and Chavez in right if I was forced to compromise my defense.

Further, Green should have been taken out for late inning substitution defensively. He's a terribly liability on defense.

Playing next to Beltran and Chavez, two speed merchants, Green looks especially bad.

This outfield looked much better when Xavier Nady was playing in RF.

Green completely negates all of the good that a Carlos Beltran brings you in Center Field. If you're going to construct a ball team around pitching and defense, and trade a Nady for a Roberto Hernandez and and Oliver Perez, you don't stick a bad fielder like Shawn Green out into the spacious confines of Right Field in Shea Stadium where so many fine fielders have played.

It's just not logical.

--art kyriazis, philly

Posted by: art kyriazis at October 18, 2006 01:45 PM

Endy Chavez is a corner outfielder with a godawful career OPS of .684. He's living down to his richly deserved no-hit reputation with a .519 OPS in the postseason. Green is posting an .802 OPS, which ain't great but makes him look like Babe Ruth next to Chavez.

I guess you could flipflop them at the corner positions, but the real problem is that Chavez couldn't hit water if he jumped in the Pacific.

Posted by: Casey Abell at October 18, 2006 02:30 PM

The Green acquision was questionable. I was suprised the Mets did not make a serious play for Preston Wilson when he was available. Wilson was a good fit talent wise, and it played into the 1986 theme. With Floyd hurt Willie's hands are tied regardless.

Posted by: abe at October 18, 2006 03:07 PM

Wilson's almost as bad as Chavez. He's a corner outfielder who put up a .730 OPS this season and a wretched .579 OPS in the postseason. Yeee-uck.

Posted by: casey abell at October 18, 2006 03:28 PM

Let's just end it as soon as possible, since the best hope the winner has is avoiding getting swept by the Tigers.

Posted by: Mark at October 18, 2006 03:58 PM

Oh I can almost hear the broadcast now:

...ground ball...gets by Puhols! Here comes Wright and the Mets win it!

Or perhaps not.

Posted by: Mark at October 18, 2006 04:28 PM

Green is one of only a few Mets getting any hits this series. He has zero to do with the Mets situation. Wright not hitting and Reyes not getting on are the issues here. The Mets are not giving up a ton of runs. It's not like defense is the problem. If you can't out score the cardinals when they score 4 runs, you're in trouble.

Posted by: ed at October 18, 2006 04:56 PM

The real problem with Green's poor performance is that the Mets screwed up when they put a clearly injured Cliff Floyd on the roster for this series, and took a backup infelder (Hernandez) instead of Milledge to fill the last bench spot.

Posted by: david at October 19, 2006 12:01 PM

One last time. Green is clearly not the problem.

Posted by: ed at October 19, 2006 12:46 PM

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