Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
October 09, 2008
ALCS, Red Sox Versus Rays

The following table compares the 2008 seasons of the Red Sox and Rays, opponents in the ALCS.

AL Ranks
2008Red SoxRays
Runs/Game5.22 (3rd)4.78 (9th)
Batting Avg..280 (2nd).260 (13th)
On-Base Average.358 (1st).340 (6th)
Slugging Pct..447 (3rd).422 (8th)
ERA4.01 (4th)3.82 (2nd)
Strikeouts/9 IP7.4 (1st)7.1 (5th)
Walks/9 IP3.4 (9th)3.2 (8th)
HR/200 IP20.3 (4th)22.8 (9th)

Looking at the stat comparison, I don't see how anyone could pick the Rays to win this series. Tampa Bay holds a slight edge in pitching. Their ERA beats the Red Sox ERA by 0.19 runs, although Boston ranks better at striking out batters and preventing home runs. The same thing was true against the White Sox, better ERA, without better pitching stats. Again, the Rays did a better job than the Red Sox of turning balls put in play into outs. From the White Sox/Rays preview:

The answer lies in the players on the field behind the pitchers. The defensive efficiency record (DER) measures the ability of fielders to turn a batted ball into an out. The Rays DER in 2008 came in at .710, the best in the majors. Chicago posted a .686 mark, 9th in the AL. Think of it as the difference between a team that bats .290 and one that bats .314. For every 200 balls in play, the Rays are going collect about five more outs. In fact, the rise of the Rays DER from 13th in the AL in 2007 to first in 2008 accounts for a large part in the drop in team ERA. The Rays can afford to allow more balls in play than the White because they are better at turning them into outs.
James Shields

James Shields
Photo: Icon SMI

The Red Sox are better defensively than the White Sox. Their .699 DER ranked fourth in the AL, but a few more balls do trickle through the Boston defense than through the Tampa Bay fielders. The bottom line, both these staffs are capable of shutting down the opposition.

The difference comes on offense. Boston hits for average, gets on base extremely well and owns plenty of power. The Rays do a good job of getting on base, and that's about it. That's why the Red Sox outscored their opponents by 48 more runs than the Rays. The reason the Rays finished ahead of the Boston was due to their record in one run games. Tampa Bay finished 29-18 in those close contests, while the Red Sox were 22-23. If the Rays go .500 in one-run games, Boston finishes in first place in the AL East easily.

In fact, if the Rays play .500 in one run games against the Red Sox, Boston finishes in first place. Look at the run difference in the series between the two teams:

Head to Head
2008Red SoxRays
Wins810
Runs/Game4.83.7
Walks7874
Home Runs1818
Hits152142

The Red Sox should have gone 11-7 against Tampa Bay, not 8-10. In one run games, the Rays were 6-0 against Boston.

The easy explanation was that the Rays were lucky in these games, but that may not be the whole story. While the pitching staffs as a whole are pretty even, the Rays trot out a better bullpen. Against the Red Sox, Rays relievers held the Boston batters to a .227/.350/.349 line. They bent, walking batters, but didn't break, preventing the hits that might drive in those walks. Rays batters posted a .246/.357/.369 line against the Boston bullpen, just a bit better. The trick for the Rays was hanging with the Boston starters, so the bullpen could keep the game close late, and the luck could happen.

Note, however, that luck sometimes balances. The Red Sox put 14 more men on than the Rays via a hit or walk over the course of the 18 game series. That doesn't seem to be enough to justify a 20 run difference in Boston's favor. With runners in scoring position, the Red Sox hit .242 head-to-head, while the Rays hit .176. That poor a batting average in those situation is also a bit of luck, just in the opposite direction. If the Rays get a few more hits in those key situations, then the run difference between the teams is a lot lower, and they look more evenly matched.


Coco Crisp

Coco Crisp
Photo: Icon SMI


One non-statistical aspect of this series; the Rays and the Red Sox have a healthy dislike for each other due to a history that led to the Crisp/Shields fight. I doubt it will make a difference in who wins, but we're sure to see some hard-nosed play whenever there's a chance for a collision.

I really wanted to pick the Rays to win the ALCS. Despite their record in close games, despite their home field advantage, Boston deserves to be the favorite in this series. As we saw in their ALDS against the Angels, the Red Sox come in extremely well prepared for their opponents. I don't see a huge advantage, however. The Rays luck this season worked both for and against them, especially against Boston. Flipping a coin might be just as good. The Red Sox are my favorite, but with just a 51% chance of winning the series.

Red Sox batters vs. Rays, 2008.

Rays batters vs. Red Sox, 2008.

Red Sox pitchers vs. Rays, 2008.

Rays pitchers vs. Red Sox, 2008.


Posted by David Pinto at 04:57 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
Comments

One of the other things to consider is the two teams who compiled those records are not the same teams that will play in this series.

1. Crawford and Upton are healthier, and Beckett and Lowell are not.
2. Some percentage of those records was compiled by players who won't play in this series:
a. Neither team's fifth starter or 11th bullpen arm matters at all.
b. The rosters for this series are different than the in-season rosters.
c. There are no "getaway" games where half the starters sit.

I don't know how big those effects are, but it clearly makes a difference - just ask the Cubs.

This series is clearly a tossup, and like most tossups, will probably turn on something we haven't even considered.

Posted by: Subrata Sircar at October 9, 2008 06:35 PM

I agree that this series is a tossup, but a more general question: how can you take the full-season statistical comparisons seriously without adjusting for park? I know you're aware of park effect, and you know that they can be very large. Why not give us raw and adjusted numbers to give us a better idea of the relative strengths of these teams?

Posted by: amos at October 9, 2008 07:25 PM

I suppose the Rays won 97 games on luck. Not likely. What I saw was great bullpen work, improved plate discipline, amazing gloves, tremendous speed, in-season maturation and savvy leadership.

You don't go into Fenway in September and take 2 of 3 crucial games on luck.

Posted by: John at October 9, 2008 10:25 PM

"I don't see how anyone could pick the Rays to win this series." Obviously you haven't looked at each team's records at home versus each other.

"The difference comes on offense. Boston hits for average, gets on base extremely well and owns plenty of power." So Boston beat the Rays by .020 AVG, .018 OBP, and .025 SLG, which is in your terms clearly an advantage for Boston. However, later on you say that the Rays were lucky since they have the following advantages against the Boston bullpen over the Red Sox versus the Rays bullpen: .019 AVG, .009 OBP, and .020 SLG. These sets are nearly identical, so how does the first set clearly give Boston the upper hand, but the second one represents Rays' luck !?

I'm also amazed at how you said you really wanted to pick the Rays (yeah right).

Posted by: Michael at October 10, 2008 03:47 PM

Hit Dog, if Papelbon blew one save already against the Rays, what makes you think he is incapable of doing it again? Also, the Red Sox couldn't win the 13th inning game, so how does it make it luck when Pena crushes a 3-run bomb off Timlin (who is on the playoff roster, by the way)? I think you're just still mad that the Rays won the division, and you're about to be a lot more upset in a week...

Posted by: Michael at October 10, 2008 03:52 PM

Did the Red Sox break the record for most men left on base in the 2008 alcs series against the devil rays?

Posted by: David at October 19, 2008 11:57 PM
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