Although the White Sox posted a better ERA than the Angels, LAnaheim actually allowed fewer runs than Chicago. It was very close, but the Angels allowed 643 runs to 645 for the White Sox. Defensively, these teams appear to be as even as you can imagine overall.

If you calculate predicted runs scored based on these numbers, LAnaheim comes out slightly on top. The prediction is the Angels over the White Sox by 0.1 runs, 3.97-3.87. The pitching on both teams is so good that we're forced into the realm of close games, a place where the White Sox thrive.

There is, however, an adjustment to be made for their home fields. The Park Index for 1 or 3 years indicates that runs are much more plentiful in the park formerly known as Comiskey than at the Big A. Chicago increases run scoring by about 10 percent while LAnaheim decreases it by 6%. This puts the White Sox pitching and defense ahead of the Angels, but gives a big boost to the LAnaheim offense.

With the adjustments for park in place, the runs prediction is even closer, now with the White Sox edging out the Angels 3.78 to 3.77. We have two very evenly matched teams facing each other in this series.

The problem right now for the Angels is the pitching rotation. The Angels blew out three starters in the last two days, with Colon getting hurt. They also used Kelvim Escobar last night, another candidate for a spot start. That leaves them with Byrd to start tonight, and Washburn penciled in for tomorrow if he's over his illness. Basically, 1-2 for Chicago will be facing 3-4 for the Angels in the first two games.

What happens after that, however, depends a lot on Colon's shoulder. I could see Scioscia going with Lackey and Santana in games 3 and 4, then if Colon is healed putting Bartolo in for game five in Anaheim. Then, you can come back with a well rest Byrd and a normal rest Lackey, or go for broke and pitch Lackey and Santana in games six and seven on short rest. Scioscia did a very good job of manipulating his staff against the Yankees, and I expect the same in the ALCS.

Lineup construction goes to Ozzie Guillen. It's not a great lineup, but given the hand he's dealt, my only change would be to switch Dye and Konerko, getting Paul closer to the men who can get on base a little bit. But Guillen has the concept down. He has the guys who can get on base at the top, he has his best power right behind them, and then the order is in decreasing OBA after Everett (Everett is better than the .311 OBA he posted this season, so I don't have a problem with his batting fifth).

Scioscia, on the other hand, splits up Figgins and Guerrero and Figgins with Cabrera and his .309 OBA. He splits up Guerrero and Molina with Anderson and his .308 OBA. He bats Erstad in front of Rivera, despite Rivera's greater power. He bats Kennedy ninth, the player with the third best OBA on the team.

I know studies show that lineups don't matter, but I have to believe that bunching your best hitters together is superior to splitting them with outs. The White Sox aren't the Yankees. They have the second best DER in the American League, trailing just the Athletics. They are going to catch everything that is catchable. Fewer balls are going to scoot through the infield, fall in the gaps, or just in front of an outfielder. The Angels are going to need to earn their way on, which makes putting together rallies tougher. The Angels offense is better, but Ozzie's arrangement is more pleasing.

It's going to be a very close series. Both bullpens are great. Each strike out a ton of batters while walking few. Whoever is ahead after six could easily win each game. I'm looking for a series that goes down to the wire in a string of close games. I see the odds as 51-49 White Sox You might as well flip a coin.