Baseball Musings: NLCS: Dodgers Versus Phillies

October 08, 2008

NLCS: Dodgers Versus Phillies

The following table compares major batting and pitching stats for the Dodgers and Phillies with NL ranks:

NL Ranks
2008	Dodgers	Phillies
Runs/Game	4.32 (13th)	4.93 (2nd-T)
Batting Avg.	.264 (5th)	.255 (10th)
On-Base Average	.333 (6th)	.332 (7th)
Slugging Pct.	.399 (13th)	.438 (2nd)
ERA	3.68 (1st)	3.88 (4th)
Strikeouts/9 IP	7.4 (5th)	6.7 (12th)
Walks/9 IP	3.0 (2nd)	3.3 (5th-T)
HR/200 IP	17.0 (1st)	22.1 (7th)

This series matches the strength of the Phillies lineup, their power, against the strength of the Dodgers pitching staff, their ability to prevent home runs. Against the Brewers the Phillies lineup lived up to their season stats. They didn't do a great job of hitting for average or getting on base, but many of their hits wound up going for extra bases. They moved the few men who reached base a great distance with those long hits.

Ryan Howard
Photo: Icon SMI

The Dodgers, however, led the NL in preventing home runs. In their sweep against the Cubs, LA pitchers gave up just one dinger. If the Dodgers can reduce the pop of the Phillies hitters, they reduce Philadelphia to a feeble offensive team.

One large caveat to the Dodgers strength is that it's mostly a park effect. Los Angeles pitchers allowed 49 home runs at home, 74 on the road. The Phillies can sting the ball in any park with 266 extra-base hits at home and 275 on the road. Shutting down Philadelphia's power is not a given. As you can see in the home/road split for the Dodgers pitchers against the Phillies, it was the singles and walks, not the extra base hits that suffered in Los Angeles. That leads us to the very interesting head-to-head record for the teams:

Head to Head
2008	Dodgers	Phillies
Wins	4	4
Runs/Game	3.4	5.4
Walks	28	30
Home Runs	7	9

Ryan Howard is a perfect example of how the Dodgers both succeeded and failed against the Phillies offense. LA pitchers kept Howard off base as he batted .113 with a .250 OBA. His four hits, however, counted two doubles and two home runs, good for nine RBI. If the Dodgers can't stop the power, they can't stop the Phillies.

Both teams swept their opponent at home. All four games in Dodger Stadium were decided by two runs or less. All four games in Philadelphia were decided by three runs or more. Since all eight took place in August, it's a good proxy for how the LCS will play out, since the players for both teams were in place.

The Phillies also took advantage of the Dodgers weakness against left-handed batters. The link above also shows the Dodgers pitchers against left and right handed Phillies, and lefties hit about 40 points higher and slugged about 80 points higher. In fact Joe Torre is thinking of starting Clayton Kershaw in game four to counter that weakness.

I also like the way the Phillies rotation sets up for this series. Hamels and Myers, the power pitchers, go at home where keeping men off base is important. Moyer and Blanton, the control pitchers, take the mound at Dodger Stadium where runs are more scarce.

Rafael Furcal
Photo: Icon SMI

The Dodgers do have one thing going for them that they lacked for most of the regular season, Rafael Furcal. Los Angeles' record stood at 18-14 after games on May 5th, the last time Furcal would play until September 24. This season, he brought a high on-base average to the Dodgers leadoff spot, .434 batting first this season. Overall, the Dodgers leadoff hitters posted a .351 OBA, showing how much Rafael contributed. His .467 LDS OBA helped set the table even better for Ramirez and Ethier.

The two teams are very close. The Dodgers pitchers are hot, but the Phillies pitchers are also very good. Utley, Howard and Burrell are a match for Manny, Ethier and Martin. Furcal gives the Dodgers a bit of an edge on offense, as he's a better leadoff hitter than Rollins. The Dodgers also dropped their unproductive players, as you're not seeing much of Kent, Pierre, Jones and Garciaparra in the playoffs. Charlie Manuel platoons well, however, so I suspect he'll win the individual matchups.

It's a close series to call. The Phillies home field advantage in my mind gives them a slight edge. I'm picking the Phillies with a low probability of winning, 52%.

Dodgers batters vs. Phillies, 2008.

Phillies batters vs. Dodgers, 2008.

Dodgers pitchers vs. Phillies, 2008.

Phillies pitchers vs. Dodgers, 2008.

Posted by David Pinto at 10:20 AM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)

Comments

You point out the park effects on the Dodgers pitchers due to their pitcher's park, but ignore the opposite effect on Phillies pitchers.

The Phillies have the 4th best road ERA, versus 8th for the Dodgers. So, I'm not sure the story line is "Phillies hitters versus Dodgers pitchers." The pitching staffs are pretty comparable.

Posted by: PhillyBooster at October 8, 2008 11:34 AM

I'd like to see what their team stat rankings were from August 1 onward. I think that would tell a lot more about a playoff team than a whole season's worth of stats

Posted by: Devon Young at October 8, 2008 11:45 AM

Another great analysis, thanks. But I believe Ramirez has had a strong positive impact on many hitters in the dodgers lineup. This will defenitely be a great series. I would love to see Ramirez step up to the plate in Boston in the World Series...

Posted by: Art at October 8, 2008 12:46 PM

with the head to head stats, it looks like phils should win, let's hope so :-)

good stuff

**Sports Blog/Forum looking for new users. The floor is yours to tell us what you think. Visit us at http://www.sportvantage.com **

Posted by: Sportvantage at October 8, 2008 02:48 PM

dodgers v. phillies now and then

1) great analysis on this years series. i think you've hit the mark exactly on the hitting and pitching comparisons. the only thing about furcal is he's up in years by now. the furcal of 2008 is not the furcal of 2001. when he was with the braves, he used to kill the phils, and everyone else. i doubt seriously he's as good as he was, or that he's as good as jimmy rollins is now.

2) i'm super glad the dodgers have Andruw Jones on the DL. if there's one thing you fear more than ex-bosox on the roster, it's ex-braves who can field centerfield like willie mays and who have 10 years of playoff experience and who have killed the phillies for years.

3) speaking of ex-bosox, i do not fear nomar or derek lowe. i do fear manny.

4) speaking of ex-yankees, joe torre has by now proven his greatness as a manager is in the jim leyland yogi berra casey stengel leo durocher level. he can win anywhere with any team on any day. how stupid is steinbrenner???? i do fear torre.

5) i'd probably rather have seen the phils play the cubs and lou piniella than the dodgers. the dodgers are loaded with young and old talent and loaded with pitching, and joe torre is the best manager around with the most post-season experience by far.

6) I was at the 1983 NLCS phillies v. Dodgers, which was 25 years ago this month. it was best of five back then. John Denny got the Cy Young that year, but Steve Carlton and Denny and Gary Matthews were the show--Matthews hit three long homers, bombs really, as the phils took two games in a row at home (I went to both) to take control of the series and advance to the world series.

beating the hated dodgers really was a celebration and revenge for their beating us in 77 and 78.

that one homer matthews hit was off the facing of the upper deck in in the Vet and was a line drive, it was still going up when it hit the facing and bounced off. I think it would have gone 600 feet or more if it had kept going. it was a monster shot.

Matthews was MVP i believe for that series. He was just incredible in September and the postseason that year. He had a good september in 82 as well.

dealing him to the cubs was a big mistake, and the cubs made it to the NLCS the next year in 1984.

--art kyriazis, philly

Posted by: art kyriazis at October 8, 2008 03:46 PM

Having Furcal back has been huge for the Dodgers--they're not the same team that played the Phillies earlier this season. If the Dodgers can split the first two games in Philadelphia, they'll win the series in six. If the Phillies win the first two, someone will win in seven.

Posted by: M. Scott Eiland at October 9, 2008 03:56 AM