October 19, 2004
History or a Footnote
Thomas Boswell does a good job of capturing the ALCS so far. It's either going to be the greatest comeback in baseball history or another buildup and let down for the Boston fans.
I thought this was interesting:
However, the event in baseball that has the most impact from one game to the next, which leads to streaks and slumps more often than should be statistically predictable, is the blown save. Back-to-back blown pennant saves have never happened before. So how can we know how the odds of this series have just been skewed? But in baseball, some psychological events have real statistical implications.
In other words, if a team were going to do something that hasn't happened in 101 years, then winning two games in one day after a pair of blown Rivera saves would be the kind of almost unimaginable event that might ignite it.
Interesting, and baloney. The Red Sox were drubbed on Saturday night. The Yankees took them apart bit by bit and ground them into dust. How could a team that was so badly beaten, that had it's two great starters outpitched in games 1 and 2, then mauled at home ever come back to win game 4? We know now.
And we know that the Yankees are not going to play dead because they lost two close games in Fenway Park. These are two incredibly competitive teams. They're tired, yes, but both are sure they can win this game tonight. There's no hand wringing. There's no worrying. (Well, maybe the GMs.)
And there's no relievers. If one of the starters gets in trouble early, I'm not sure how either side plays it. The Yankees, of course, can afford to save their staff for game 7. The Red Sox can't. They are sending Schilling to the mound with a high top sneaker his main support. My good friend Jim Storer had the same injury as Schilling, and he told me the other day just how painful it was. I would suspect that on a cold, damp night it's going to be even worse. Arroyo went an inning last night; either he or Lowe is likely to be the long man if Curt breaks down early.
If Schilling guts it out and pitches well, his performance will go along side Gibson's 1988 HR off Eckersley as one of the most heroic moments in the game. It will be another unlikely performance in an ALCS which has had nothing but unlikely performances.
And all this just to set up Miguel Cairo to be the hero in game 7. How else could this end?
(Hat tip to Soccer Dad on the Boswell article.)
Doesn't Mr. Boswell remember the 2001 World Series? The Diamondbacks suffered possibly the two worst blown saves in history on back-to-back nights, only to come back.
Feh. Enrique Wilson will win the pennant. And it will save his career.
I have to disagree. It will be Doug Mirabelli.
I nearly fell asleep in the top of the ninth on Sunday night, but willed myself to stay awake for what seemed to be the end of the Red Sox season. Once they tied it, I don't think I blinked until it was over.
If there is a team that can pull this out, I think the Red Sox can. I can't imagine what a difficult environment the Stadium will be tonight, but if Schilling can really pitch this time, the crowd just might be quiet (who knows?).
In any event, at least the Sox have given their fans something to cheer about in what was so close to being one of our most embarrassing losses. If the Sox lose tonight or tomorrow (but they won't, they won't), that will be our salve.
Did Mo really get the BS last night? If that's how the rule works, the rule needs to be changed. Mo retired all the batters he faced. And only gave the run up on a sac fly, but it was Gordon's runner. Why doesn't Flash get the Blown Save?
Yeah, he gets the blown save. If he'd retired the side on strikeouts or pop-ups, he would have saved the game. He didn't. Hence, blown save.
If you're worried about the set-up man's stats, over the course of the season, set-up men have many opportunities to get blown saves but are almost never given the opportunity to get a save. Likewise, a closer will rarely get a win. (Lidge got one last night, though.)
Adam
Yes, he gets the blown save, and had he given up another run that inning (say another sac fly), then Gordon would have gotten the loss and Rivera the blown save (the two runners on were Gordon's responsibility). The losing pitcher is the one that put the winning run on base, and a blown save is credited to the pitcher working when the tying run scores (slight difference between the two cases).
Rivera should get the blown save. But you can see why all blown saves are not equal. It wasn't exactly like the Red Sox killed him or anything. But Varitek did his job by getting the ball into the outfield and Mo didn't by letting Varitek do that. It is fairly unusual to hit a genuine fly ball against Mo so give Varitek credit. Of course, if Mo had jammed him like usual it probably would have been one of those bloop singles. Mo's blown saves are usually of the variety that Mo looks good even in defeat (Mueller homer being the exception).