Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
October 17, 2008
Switching Pitchers

Here's more video from Amalie Benjamin in which she reports the Red Sox considered flipping Beckett and Lester in games six and seven.

The Red Sox aren't going to do that, but it seems like a good idea to me. If you really believe right now that Lester is a better pitcher than Beckett, it makes sense to try to get the win against the Rays best pitcher. Of course, if the Red Sox win over Shields, then Lester-Garza (despite game 3) should favor Lester.


Posted by David Pinto at 06:06 PM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
Comments

Agreed. Game 7 doesn't matter right now; the priority should be winning game 6. But the point she/Farrell made about Lester already being way above his previous high for innings pitched seems valid. I don't know that the extra day of rest would make any difference as far as his long-term health is concerned, but it could conceivably affect his stuff in this series.

If Lester weren't as young as he is I'd be irritated by Boston's refusal to switch them up. As it stands...can kinda see the logic.

Posted by: the other josh at October 17, 2008 07:25 PM

David,

Why does it make sense to send the Sox' best pitcher against the Rays' best pitcher? I don't get that at all. Would the Sox be at a disadvantage if their best pitcher went against Garza instead? How could that be true, since in that case the Rays would also have to be at a disadvantage because they weren't sending *their* best pitcher against the Sox' best??

Other Josh:
If the goal is to win the ALCS, then Game 6 and Game 7 are exactly equally important.

Posted by: James at October 17, 2008 07:33 PM

In the grand scheme, yes they are. But right now, all that matters is getting to Game 7; they lost the luxury of setting themselves up for the future when they fell behind 3-1 in the series.

Garza seems more likely to get hit hard then Shields does. Beckett seems more likely to get hit hard then Lester. Since you're facing Shields first, it makes more sense to me to throw the comparable pitcher--Lester--and hope Beckett can outduel Garza in a game 7. Further, if Beckett does get hit...if he's clobbered in Game 6, they kill their bullpen if they manage to get to Game 7. But if he's hit around in game 7, it's all hands on deck.

So now that I think about it, throwing Lester in Game 6--putting aside for a moment my previously stated concerns of rest and health--seems like the better idea in terms of setting the team up for Game 7, too.

Posted by: the other josh at October 17, 2008 07:41 PM

James,

The Red Sox don't want the Rays dominating one game because that lowers the Red Sox probability of winning two. It's better for them to be 50/50 in both games than 30/70 in one and 70/30 in the other.

Posted by: David Pinto at October 17, 2008 07:41 PM

David,
Oh, good point! I hadn't thought of that.

Other Josh,
But right now, all that matters is getting to Game 7

No, that's not true. Right now, it's very important to do what they can to improve their chances of winning Game 7. Because if they blow all their chips on Game 6 and lose Game 7, it was all for nothing.

Posted by: James at October 17, 2008 08:16 PM

Regardless of matchups, the better pitcher should go in game 6. In game 7 the team can throw the kitchen sink of relievers if the starter falters.

Posted by: Hei Lun Chan at October 17, 2008 08:22 PM

All that matters is winning game 6. If you lose, there is no game 7. Sure, you shouldn't plan to do damage to your ability to compete in a game 7, but you must get there first. So, if getting to a game 7 you have to use a pitcher you didn't want to use, but had to, that's baseball.

It's not math. It's fact. Simple fact. Probability and baseball don't get along. Possibility is a better bedfellow.

All this percentage and odds and probability talk that has emerged is nonsense. Look at the odds the Phillies were getting to win the NLCS. Look at the odds the Mets had down the stretch.

Posted by: Joe in Philly at October 17, 2008 11:15 PM

All that matters is winning game 6. If you lose, there is no game 7. Sure, you shouldn't plan to do damage to your ability to compete in a game 7, but you must get there first. So, if getting to a game 7 you have to use a pitcher you didn't want to use, but had to, that's baseball.

It's not math. It's fact. Simple fact. Probability and baseball don't get along. Possibility is a better bedfellow.

All this percentage and odds and probability talk that has emerged is nonsense. Look at the odds the Phillies were getting to win the NLCS. Look at the odds the Mets had down the stretch.

Look at the odds the Phillies have against an unknown WS opponent. Hypothetical nonsense.

Posted by: Joe in Philly at October 17, 2008 11:16 PM
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