Baseball Musings: Tigers-Yankees Preview

October 02, 2006

Tigers-Yankees Preview

This ALDS matchup pits the team with the best ERA in the AL vs. the team with the best offense in the AL:

2006 (AL Ranks)	Tigers	Yankees
Runs per Game	5.07 (5th)	5.74 (1st)
ERA	3.84 (1st)	4.41 (7th)

The Yankees offense is a real outlier this season. New York scored .37 more runs per game than any other team. There's a bigger difference between the Yankees and the number two team in the majors, the White Sox than between the White Sox and the number eleven team. The worst hitter who is likely to start for the Yankees in the post-season is Melky Cabrera, and he holds a .360 OBA. One through nine, every hitter gets on base at a good clip. There is just no let up for a starting pitcher, no easy out. And on the bench is going to be Sheffield or Giambi or Cabrera, so when the situation is right, Torre's going to have the depth he needs.

The other point about the Yankess offense is it underperformed it's runs created estimate. So they are even better than they look. They can beat you in many ways. They can hit, they can draw walks and they can hit for power. They even are effective stealing bases, stealing at an 80% clip.

The Tigers offense isn't bad. Part of their lower number comes from their park. The Tigers hit the most home runs on the road this season, 122. Combine the extra scoring power with an even better ERA away, and the Tigers picked up the best road record in the AL. In a way, it helps them to play three games at Yankee Stadium. Here's a more indepth look at the offenses.

2006 (AL Ranks)	Tigers	Yankees
Batting Average	.274 (9th)	.285 (2nd)
OBA	.329 (12th)	.363 (1st)
Slugging Percentage	.449 (5th)	.461 (3rd)

It seems to me the Tigers had some luck to parlay those numbers into the 5th best runs per game in the AL. They did exceed their runs created estimate by .1 run. It turns out they did really well with a man on third and less than two out. Although they were last in sacrifice flies with 36, they hit .386 in that situation and slugged .584, well above their norms. They produced 222 RBI in 341 chances in that situation.

Here's a more in depth look at the pitching:

2006 (AL Ranks)	Tigers	Yankees
Batting Average Allowed	.257 (2nd)	.262 (4th)
OBA Allowed	.321 (3rd)	.326 (5th)
Slugging Percentage Allowed	.405 (2nd)	.413 (3rd)

It seems there should be a smaller gap between the Yankees and Tigers ERAs. The Yankees pitchers were quite unlucky this season with men on base. They allowed a .305 OBA and a .388 slugging percentage with the bases empty. With men on, however, the OBA went up to .355 and the slugging to .447.

In every case this season, the Tigers number reflect good luck and the Yankees numbers reflect some bad luck. This tells me that the difference between the two teams is bigger than the number indicate. A fully healthy Yankees offense can wear away at the best pitchers. Even if they don't score many runs off a good starter, they'll force him out of a game by the seventh on pitch count. The Yankees can score enough runs for Wang, Mussina and the front of the bullpen to survive. I give the Yankees the edge in this series.

Posted by David Pinto at 11:59 PM | League Division Series | TrackBack (0)

Comments

Yanks should be pretty heavily favored in this one.

It's not just the total numbers, it's the way they got there, Yanks played considerablly better as the season went on, got Abreu, got Matsui and Sheff back, (presumablly) got a healthy Moose and Mo back.

The Tigers reeled into the playoffs, there's no way they possibly wanted to play the Yankees or didn't care about the results in the end when the trot out Kenny Rogers in relief. they got worse as the season went on as well, Granderson hit like junk, Shelton hit like junk after 2 month, and Dimitri Young is gone. the staff is running out of gas.

A LOT more things have to go wrong for the Yanks to lose this one

Posted by: RollingWave at October 3, 2006 01:30 AM

Can't believe that Tigers were the hottest team in baseball for 5 months and now has to settle for a wild card and face against the Yankees.

Wang already beaten Tigers with Rogers earlier this year. Maybe another 2 - 0 game like last time?

Posted by: Frank at October 3, 2006 06:15 AM

The thing that scares me about the Tigers is getting to the good bullpen instead of the bad one. Zumaya, Rodney, and Jones are good pitchers, and the Yankees might have to work those guys as well as a starter in order to get one of their patented "wear-down" wins. They need to get to the weak part of the bullpen in the 5th or 6th instead of waiting until the 7th or 8th. Jones' effectiveness is only increased by the flamethrowers they have in setup.

Posted by: Barron at October 3, 2006 09:45 AM

Nothing like going out on a limb, David.

Everyone is picking the Yanks, and honestly why not? The Yanks won 5 of 7 and only lost because Torre rested Rivera and the Tigers rallied off the replacements in two separate games. This is a no-brainer, as I noted.

Then again, a 1-0 Twins lead in their 2006 ALDS was supposed to be a no-brainer.

Then again, the Mess were a no-brainer in the 1988 NLCS after winning 11 of 12 from the Dodgers that year.

Note that in the ALDS, the game 1 loser has won 13 of 16 series that did not end up as sweeps. So if the Twins win game 2, their odds of winning the series go up drastically.

That's why they play the games.

I'm just hoping that the Yanks can do to the Tigers what the Royals did last weekend . . .

Posted by: The Monk at October 3, 2006 03:56 PM

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