The Milwaukee Brewers and the Chicago Cubs face elimination today as their series shift venues. The early game pits Jamie Moyer against David Bush in Milwaukee. From July first on, Moyer took control of his home runs allowed. He gave up 14 long balls in 100 1/3 innings through the end of June, helping him to a 4.13 ERA. Since, only six left the park in 96 innings, and Moyer's ERA dropped to 3.28. Two of those, however, came in a start against Milwaukee.

Bush posted an interesting year. He strikeout rate fell, his walk and home run rates rose, but his ERA came in a run lower than in 2007. Maybe it was just luck evening out. In 2007, his FIP was 0.54 below his ERA. This season, it was 0.77 higher.

Out in Mannywood, Rich Harden tries to stop the Cubs slide as he faces Hiroki Kuroda. Harden came over to the Cubs and pitched about the same as he had with the Athletics in terms of strikeouts, walks and home runs. However, NL hitters could not connect off him. The A's opposition hit .206 off Rich with a .300 slugging percentage. When he joined the Cubs that dropped to .157 and .273.

Kuroda's stats are similar to David Bush, but without the high home run rate. With decent run support, Hiroki would likely have a winning record. His home road stats were nearly identical, but they translated to a 6-2 record at Dodger Stadium, 3-8 on the road. He pitched very well against the Cubs this season, allowing two runs, one earned, in 15 1/3 innings. Yet his record was just 1-1. Most importantly, he walked just three Chicago batters in those innings, nullifying a Cubs strength. He also finished the season strong, walking 11 batters in his last 66 2/3 innings over August and September.

The walks matter. The Dodgers are holding the Cubs to a .288 OBA so far. That's 66 points below their season average. It's a great example of a low walk staff taking the starch out of a high walk offense.

Enjoy!

Correction: Kuroda was 3-8 on the road, not 3-18.