October 04, 2004
Anything You Can Do ...
It's difficult for me to see any way for the Dodgers to beat the Cardinals in the upcoming NLDS. The Dodgers have an MVP candidate in Adrian Beltre; the Cardinals have three. Los Angeles has a great bullpen; the Cardinals is better. The Dodgers have a great defense. The Cardinals have an equally great defense (the teams tied in DER), leading the NL. The Cardinals have better starting pitching. The Cardinals have better pinch hitters. All is not lost, however. The Dodgers do have better hitting pitchers.
In short, the Cardinals are the team the Dodgers want to be. There's too much fire power in the St. Louis lineup for the Dodgers pitchers to muzzle. Just as an example, the Cardinals hit .250 against Los Angeles this season, but the Dodgers pitchers had a 5.09 ERA against St. Louis. Nearly half the hits the Cards produced went for extra bases.
I'll be conservative and say the Cardinals in four. But truthfully, I'm thinking sweep.
Like the ads say, though, you can't script October baseball. Neither the Marlins nor the Angels would have won the past two years if they'd followed the script.
Now, obviously the Yankees and Cardinals would have to be the favorites if you were a bookie. But don't count anybody out until they play the games.
I like the way you think - especially about the Cardinals, but that could be because I'm from St. Louis. :-)
i think you're under-rating the dodgers just a bit, i am a dodger fan, so i cant say i know all the cardinals, but know most of their team.
if you've ever seen izzy and ac field a double play, its sweet poetry in motion, granted the cards have renteria, but with all due respect, Izturis is the NL gold glover at SS
i think the dodgers have a better bullpen than the cards do, just slightly, anchored by the bespectacled one, Gagne, set up by the new mota, brahzoban, young fireballer duaner sanchez, and grizzled up a bit with carrara, and alvarez, the dodgers have shown they can get to isringhousen and kline coming back from injury is a ?, ankiel has been pretty good in his comeback, but lets see him under pressure of a playoff game, where he last melted down. the dodger pen is a pen that gave up nothing for 8 2/3 IN colorado, also this pen kept the team in games for so often when the starters faltered
also, the bench is the best in baseball, jose hernandez, robin venture, olmeado saenz, jason grabowski, dave ross. tracy can extend an inning and hernandez can play any position, barring catcher, in the field, venture and saenz give trace a nice veteran lefty/righty option, and although grabs has been off lately, ross is a very good defensive catcher
we shall see what happens, the Dodgers haven't had all this magic and have it mean nothing, i think as it has been discussed here, in a 5 game series it boils down more to luck than ability/record and i'll take that Dodger Blue luck against any team, nobody gave em a chance in '88 and it doesnt seem like anybody is givin' them a chance now
let the games begin
I agree that the Cards will win in 4, but I think that LA has a slight advantage in starting pitching, at least with Carpenter hurt in the first round. If you look at VORP and win shares, you'll find that Perez outpitched every Cardinal starter, Weaver pitched about the same as Marquis, and Lima pitched about the same as Williams. What LA doesn't have is a 4th starter.
All that said, I think St. Louis's bats are just too good. LA will have to outscore St. Louis, and their only chance to do that is in Game 3 against Morris. They'll win that game, but St. Louis will pound on their Game 4 starter, either Perez on 3 days or...gulp...Kaz Ishii to take the series.
Also, I agree with your assesment that their defenses cancel each other out and that the Cardinal 'Pen and bench are slightly stronger. I agree with your pick: St. Louis in 4
You can't script October baseball? Tell that to the Black Sox.
Good analysis, Brandon, although Ankiel is not on the playoff roster. Also, I appreciate Dodgers "magic" this year, but the Cards are wearing a fair amount of pixie dust themselves.
let's not discount Tony Larussa's ability to blow a big series. his record with very good teams in the playoffs is decidedly ungood.
a way for the Dodgers to beat the Cardinals: score more runs in 3 games. sorry, that was too easy....