This series pits a great offensive team versus a great pitching team. The Brewers rank as high in preventing runs as the Phillies do in scoring runs. They are not much better than the Phillies, however, in keeping the opposition off the scoreboard. The two teams walk the same number of batters and the Phillies are better at preventing home runs. The Brewers advantage comes from more strikeouts and a better DER, but not that much better. Milwaukee's comes in at .708, Philadelphia's .703.

The teams diverge on offense. While a seven point difference in OBA and a seven point difference in slugging percentage doesn't seem like much, combined they point to a big difference in offense. With nearly identical batting averages, the larger OBA difference points to a more selective team in Philadelphia, and the larger slugging percentage difference indicates more the Phillies hits go for extra bases. More men on plus more long hits advancing them means more runs. This shows up in their head-to-head numbers:

On top of the Phillies bringing a better offense to the series, the Brewers starting pitching stand in tatters. Yovani Gallardo starts game one after a four inning outing five days ago, his first off the disabled list. Even if he pitches well, Gallardo will likely turn the game over to the bullpen early. Sabathia follows for game two, but Suppan and Bush are crap shoots. It's too bad Ben Sheets broke down now after helping the team get this far. He and Sabathia would prove formidable against any opponent.

Meanwhile, Hamels and Moyer are solid for Philadelphia. Even if Myers lost what was working for him most of the second half of the season, Charlie Manuel can call on the bullpen early. I especially like that Jamie Moyer pitches game three on the road, as he's strongest away from Philadelphia.

My matchup to watch is Prince Fielder versus Ryan Howard. Both power hitting first basemen are capable of lifting their teams with their offense, but also pulling them down with strikeouts if they slump.

Based on a better offense and, at the moment, a stronger pitching staff, I give the Phillies a 75% chance of winning this series.

Brewers batters vs. Phillies, 2008.

Phillies batters vs. Brewers, 2008.

Brewers pitchers vs. Phillies, 2008.

Phillies pitchers vs. Brewers, 2008.