October 05, 2008
Playoffs Today
Kudos to TBS for spreading today's games out so we can see all of them. I understand the strart time of the LAnaheim-Boston game changed to 7:27 from 7:05.
The Phillies play their second match point in Milwaukee at 1:00 PM EDT, send Joe Blanton against Jeff Suppan. Blanton is a good example of how a high scoring team makes a decent pitcher like Joe look really good. The Phillies scored 73 runs in Joe's 13 starts, 5.6 runs per game. With that support, I'm not surprised that Blanton went undefeated, I'm surprised his record was just 4-0. What's more unusual, he pitched well in August, posting a 3.03 ERA in six starts, but wound up just 1-0. The Phillies went 9-4 in his starts, however, making that trade a rather successful one.
Blanton's main strength is his reverse platoon differential. For his career, he's slightly better against left-hand batters, and this season the difference was very pronounced. The Brewers are fairly right-handed, however, so that may help Milwaukee today.
Jeff Suppan, however, does not inspire confidence. This is the game where losing Ben Sheets really hurts. The Brewers won't jeopardize Gallardo's health with a start on short rest. Suppan is coming off a September in which he posted an 8.44 ERA in five starts and allowed a home run every three innings. He's seen his ERA go up in each of the last three seasons, with the number approaching five this year. Unless he has one more great game left in his arm, he's going to need a lot of support from the Milwaukee offense to get a win today.
John Danks last start was against a product of the Minnesota farm system, and today he faces another as Matt Garza tries to send the Rays to the ALCS. Garza nearly matched his 2007 ERA, but added 100 more innings. His rate of allowing hits came down from 10.4 per 9 innings in 2007 to 8.3 this year. He was especially tough with runners in scoring position, allowing a .218 batting average.
Danks is Chicago's best bet at keeping this series alive. He pulled his ERA down two runs compared to 2007 by cutting his home run rate by more than half. He pitched particularly well against Tampa Bay this season. In three starts, he struck out 20 in 19 1/3 innings, good for a 1.86 ERA. Interestingly, he beat the Rays at Tropicana Field twice, but lost to them at the Cell despite a quality start.
The Red Sox try to make the Angels visit to Boston short as Josh Beckett hosts Joe Saunders. Beckett was pushed back to game 3 due to an oblique strain. Francona says Josh is okay:
After a 65-pitch bullpen session Thursday, Beckett was deemed healthy enough to make the start.
"I doubt he's 100 percent. I don't know that anybody is," manager Terry Francona said. "He threw the ball real, real well. We wouldn't pitch him if there was a big worry."
Beckett is 6-2 in the post season with a 1.73 in ten appearances. He's allowed just 14 walks and four home runs in 72 2/3 innings while striking out 82.
The Angels did pound Josh this year, however. The great walk and strikeout numbers were there for Beckett, but he allowed 20 hits in 13 1/3 innings, 12 runs, 11 earned.
Joe Saunders saved the Angels early in the season when both John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar went down with injuries. His 5-0 April helped LAnaheim weather the storm, and his 2.55 road ERA was one of the reason the Angels were the best road team in the majors this season.
Enjoy!