Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
October 04, 2005
Playoffs Today

The 2005 MLB playoffs kick off this afternoon with the best pitching matchup of the day as Jake Peavy and the San Diego Padres visit Chris Carpenter and the St. Louis Cardinals. Peavy showed his 2004 NL ERA title was no fluke, posting a 2.88 ERA and walking fewer batters in more innings. Jake's great strength, however, is his ability to strike out batters. Over the last two seasons, Peavy trails only Johan Santana and Randy Johnson in strikeouts per 9 innings.

Chris Carpenter had a great year but a poor September. He won his 21st game on Sept. 8th and did not win again. He finished the season allowing 22 earned runs over his last 21 2/3 innings, probably killing his chance at winning the Cy Young award. It's possible Carpenter was taking it easy since the Cardinals clinched early. It's also possible that past arm trouble is back to haunt him.

One monkey wrench in the St. Louis machine is the injury to Al Reyes. Carpenter is capable of going deep into the game, making Reyes' role moot. And I don't really see the problem. Randy Flores had nearly identical strikeout and walk numbers. With luck, this injury will prevent La Russa from using his one pitcher per batter strategy as much.

The four St. Louis power hitters had a field day against Padres pitching this season. Brian Giles did most of the damage against St. Louis, but that's pretty much the story of San Diego.

The all Sox series gets underway at 4 PM Eastern. (I wonder if Carlton Fisk will throw out the first pitch?) Matt Clement faces surprise starter Jose Contreras. Guillen is going with the hot hand in game 1. Over the last two months, Jose pitched the best of the veteran starters on the team. The left-right balance in the Boston lineup shouldn't bother Contreras as he threw equally well vs. both sides of the plate.

Matt Clement gets the nod for game 1 from Terry Francona. He was the leader of the rotation in the first half, but posted a 3-4 record with a 5.72 ERA after the All-Star break. The Red Sox best pitcher down the stretch, Tim Wakefield, only gets one start in this series due to his use on Saturday with the Red Sox season going down to the wire.

The Red Sox lineup is full of tough outs, and you can see that in their season statistics vs. the White Sox. Nine players with at least five plate appearances had OBA's of .360 or better vs. Chicago this year. Quite a few Pale Hose did well in getting on base vs. Boston, but they seemed to be divided into two even groups; those that did a fantastic job and those that did very poorly.

In Anaheim, Bartolo Colon will be the second 21-game winner of the day taking the hill. He'll be opposed by Mike Mussina. The Yankees pounded Bartolo this season. He gave 15 runs, 10 earned in 10 2/3 innings. He gave up 26 home runs all year, 7 in two starts vs. New York. Alex Rodriguez hits Colon very well, going 19 for 43 in their careers with 13 extra-base hits, seven for homers.

Mike Mussina is difficult to figure. He took a three week rest and shut out Baltimore for six innings. Mike faced them again on normal rest and didn't make it out of the second inning. Mussina's rested the last six days, which the Yankees hope will be a positive.

Mussina's seems to be all or nothing to batters. He strikeout number are good, but he still gives up lots of hits. It seems that if you can put the ball in play against Mike, good things happen. And the Angels are very good at putting the ball in play.

Vlad vs. the Yankees shows just how difficult it is to contain the former MVP. The Yankees kept him off base, holding him to a .326 OBA. But Guerrero still managed 13 RBI on just 11 hits. He hit .332 this season with men on base, and 32 of his 63 extra-base hits came in that situation.

Enjoy!


Posted by David Pinto at 07:56 AM | League Division Series | TrackBack (0)
Comments

Are any basic cable channels in the Boston area showing the Sox/Sox series? Thanks!

Posted by: Jason at October 4, 2005 10:31 AM

I heard that The Big Hurt is going to be throwing out the first pitch in the Sox series.

Posted by: Rob at October 4, 2005 11:30 AM

The Globe reports that games 1-3 are on channel 5 in Boston.

Posted by: Paul at October 4, 2005 12:57 PM

Didn't take long for the first postseason run, as Edmonds launches one.

It's only one run. But if Peavy can't win at St. Louis, the Padres are really hurting. He's one pitcher whose stats are not PETCO-flated.

Posted by: Casey Abell at October 4, 2005 01:28 PM
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