October 02, 2006
Athletics-Twins Preview
The Oakland Athletics and the Minnesota Twins open the playoffs tomorrow afternoon. This is one of two series in the opening round that pit two evenly matched teams against each other. Both sport good pitching staffs and middle of the road offenses:
| 2006 (AL Ranks) | Athletics | Twins |
| Runs per Game | 4.76 (9th) | 4.94 (8th) |
| ERA | 4.21 (4th) | 3.95 (2nd) |
Part of that great Twins ERA was Francisco Liriano, who is not pitching in the post season. Another big part of that ERA is the relief staff, who posted a 2.91 ERA. The Twins are very good at winning six inning games. If you don't score early and often, Minnesota can shut you down once the starter wears out.
Let look more closely at the offense defense. First the batters:
| 2006 (AL Ranks) | Athletics | Twins |
| Batting Average | .260 (13th) | .287 (1st) |
| OBA | .340 (7th) | .347 (5th) |
| Slugging Percentage | .410 (14th) | .425 (8th) |
The Twins and the Athletics get to the same place in different ways. The Twins are a singles hitting team. Minnesota hit 1156 singles in 2006, the most in the majors by 72! The Oakland Athletics walk. Only the Red Sox drew more free passes in 2006. Despite the difference in slugging percentage, the teams hit for about the same amount of power, since the difference between slugging and batting average is about the same for the opponents. The Twins hit more doubles and triples, the Athletics more home runs. The Twins move runners with hits. The A's wait for the three run homer.
How do the pitching staffs stack up to these offenses?
| 2006 (AL Ranks) | Athletics | Twins |
| Batting Average Allowed | .271 (8th) | .267 (5th) |
| OBA Allowed | .338 (9th) | .312 (1st) |
| Slugging Percentage Allowed | .422 (4th) | .423 (6th) |
And this is where the Twins win the Series. The strength of the Twins staff plays exactly against the strength of the Athletics offense. The Twins pitchers take away the walk from the Oakland Athletics. Twins pitchers issued 18 walks in 87 innings against Oakland this season. That's 1.86 BB per 9. Oakland averages over 4 walks per game. That held the Oakland offense to a .288 OBA; when you don't walk, your OBA approaches your batting average. Too few baserunners meant Oakland scored just 3.5 runs per game. Now, the season series was still close, but the Twins won it 6-4. That's exactly the ratio Minnesota needs for this series.
The difference in the teams is that the Twins are much more capable of putting a pitch in play for a hit. Since the Athletics won't be seeing many pitches to take, that gives a decided advantage to the Twins. Minnesota is my pick to win this series in four or five games.
Well, you know what they say. Good pitching always beats good hitting, and vice versa.
re: the twins
I don't know how you get around the fact that so many of the twins win shares are concentrated in Johann Santana and Francisco Liriano, and Liriano is hurt and can't play, while Santana can only pitch every fourth or fifth day. It's not like Carlos Silva is a world beater. The A's by contrast have a pretty deep rotation--Harden, Haren, etc. and they have some guys who can hurt you with the long ball and with walks like Frank Thomas and Swisher.
It seems to me this boils down more to the A's sneaking a win against Santana and winning all the games that Santana doesn't pitch. The key is how the A's do in games that Harden or Haren pitch where Santana doesn't line up against them; and also, if Harden or Haren is lined up against Santana, can Harden or Haren keep up with Santana long enough to throw the game to the bullpen and give the As a chance to win. If so, the As can steal one against the Twins ace, giving them an unanticipated opening.
If Santana doesn't win each and every start, the Twins are sunk it seems to me. That's where they are without Liriano pitching. And playing that way in previous years, they've not done well in the playoffs.
--art kyriazis, philly
PS the Tigers Yankees series will be more interesting. Jimmy Leyland locking horns with Joe Torre. Detroit has really good starting pitching while the Yankees have excellent hitting. One might well look for an upset by the upstart Tigers. Leyland is a great postseason manager and rarely blows post-season chances with his clubs, c.f. the 1991-92 Pirates and 1997 Marlins.
And this is where the Twins win the Series. The strength of the Twins staff plays exactly against the strength of the Athletics offense. The Twins pitchers take away the walk from the Oakland Athletics. Twins pitchers issued 18 walks in 87 innings against Oakland this season. That's 1.86 BB per 9. Oakland averages over 4 walks per game.
in this series hopefully the trend inverts/inflects and turns logic on it's head.
:*)