Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
October 02, 2006
Cardinals-Padres Preview

The Cardinals and Padres offer a fascinating contrast, an extreme team vs. a balance team:

2006 (NL Ranks)CardinalsPadres
Runs per Game 4.85 (6th) 4.51 (13th)
ERA 4.54 (9th) 3.87 (1st)

The Padres own the best pitching staff in the National League, and one of the worst offenses. This kept them at .500 for most of the season. The Cardinals score a few more runs than they allow. This put them a few games over .500 for the season. Neither team outscores their opponents by much, but they simply approach it in a different direction. This leads me to a first conclusion that the teams are evenly matched. Let's look at the offenses in more detail.

2006 (NL Ranks)CardinalsPadres
Batting Average .269 (4th) .263 (11th)
OBA .337 (5th) .332 (9th)
Slugging Percentage .431 (8th) .416 (14th)

In terms of batting average and OBA, the teams are closer than their ranking indicate. Where they really differ offensively is in their power stats. That may be a bit of an illusion, however, since the Padres are third in the NL in slugging on the road at .443. Their offense really isn't built for PETCO.

Here's a more detailed look at the pitching numbers:

2006 (NL Ranks)CardinalsPadres
Batting Average Allowed .268 (9th) .249 (1st)
OBA Allowed .337 (7th) .312 (1st)
Slugging Percentage Allowed .443 (13th) .404 (1st)

Notice that the biggest weakness of the Cardinals staff, the tendency to give up extra-base hits, is also the weakest park of the Padres game, especially in San Diego. But the Padres pitching shuts down every part of the offensive game. So how will the Padres pitching do in the series? I expect close to their season numbers. The Cardinals own an average offense, so since Padres' pitchers season numbers are by definition against an average offense, they should hold up. Likewise for the Padres offensive numbers. The Cardinals are an average pitching staff, and the average pitching staff is successful against San Diego hitters. So if you compare the Padres batting averages vs. the Padres averages allowed, you see a clear advantage for San Diego.

It also strikes me that San Diego just has more pitching depth. After Carpenter, which Cardinals pitcher do you really trust at this point? It's good the schedule will allow Carpenter to pitch games 1 and 4. You can then possibly bring back Suppan on three days rest. But right now, I'll put my money on Peavy and Young. I'll give this series to the Padres in four.


Posted by David Pinto at 06:23 PM | League Division Series | TrackBack (0)
Comments

These two teams overall seem to me pretty even. The Pads bullpen is better, and that very well could tip it in their favor.

Funny that "home-field" advantage may not, in fact, be an advantage for the Padres for this series!

Posted by: matty fred at October 2, 2006 07:22 PM

according to ESPN's park factors san diego is easily the best pitchers park in the NL, this could account for those good pitching/bad hitting numbers

Posted by: wonder at October 2, 2006 10:08 PM

Weaver is apparently the game #2 starter for the Cardinals, actually.

Anyway, I would guess Padres in 4 myself. The Cardinals are just a flat team. Maybe they will get miraculously recharged in the playoffs, but pretty much everyone but Pujols is in a slump, or just isn't very good to begin with. And the bullpen is just awful.

Posted by: JeremyR at October 2, 2006 10:35 PM

I'm pretty sure the number of households with cable is more like 85%, though I am not absolutely certain.

Posted by: paul zummo at October 2, 2006 10:37 PM

Whoops. Wrong thread.

Posted by: paul zummo at October 2, 2006 10:37 PM

"After Carpenter, which Cardinals pitcher do you really trust at this point?"

FWIW Suppan has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since the ASB.

Posted by: Rob at October 2, 2006 11:43 PM

Suppan has been quite good when pitching at home in Busch Stadium as well. Of the starters who have made 15 or more home starts Suppan has the 7th best ERA at 3.18 and a 7-2 record. The NL pitcher with the best home ERA? That would be Chris Carpenter with a 1.81

Posted by: Craig at October 4, 2006 09:22 AM
Post a comment









Remember personal info?