October 05, 2004
The Odds
To put my previous posts on how these teams match up into a more mathematical framework, here's how I see the odds of each team winning in the first round:
Anaheim over the Red Sox: 51% chance. (That's what I mean by saying that these teams are more evenly matched than they appear.)
Houston over Atlanta: 55%
Yankees over the Twins: 57%
Cardinals over the Dodgers: 75%
What this means is, if the Cards played the Dodgers 100 times, I would expect the Cardinals to win 75 times.
David:
How are you getting at these numbers?
Just curious...
They are top of my head. Just my impressions of how close the teams are.
A lot of the predictions I've read don't seem to take into account that the Halos are missing Kennedy and Guillen -- and that the Sox's first and second half numbers really need to be separated.
Anaheim's edges are in running and the bullpen, but unless Pedro melts down in Game 2, I think the Sox could take this in 4.
Now click my link, dammit.
