October 04, 2004
Angelic Series
On first glance, the Red Sox would appear to have a superior offense to the Angels. While they have identical batting averages, the Red Sox draw more walks and hit for more power. But part of the Red Sox offensive advantage comes from being built for their home park. They scored 1.1 more runs per game at home than on the road. A simple way to do a more accurate comparison of the offenses is to look at the stats of the two teams on the road.
Taken out of their home contexts, the Red Sox and Angels have nearly identical offenses. The Red Sox have an OBA of .342 and a slugging percentage of .441. The Angels have an OBA of .341 and a slugging percentage of .440. The difference is how they get to those numbers. The Red Sox hit for a lower batting average on the road, but draw a lot more walks to make up for the loss in on-base from hits. With a lower BA, they also hit for more power; they have fewer hits, but a higher percentage of those hits go for extra-bases.
Unfortunately for the Sox, their superior selectivity at the plate works against them in this series. Wearing out starters early just gets you into the Anaheim bullpen, a bullpen with an aggregate K per 9 of over 9! Boston strikes out more than any team in the AL. Like their 2002 championship team, the Angels are near the bottom of the AL in K. With Boston pitcher putting the ball over the plate, the Angels will be putting the ball in play. Theo's defense better be ready.
So I like the Angels in this series by a hair. The teams are evenly matched. The Angels will get more balls in play, and the Angels bullpen strengths match well against the Red Sox weaknesses. It should be a fun five games.
Correction: Angels won in 2002, not 2001.
Interesting point about the road offense performance, but don't forget that that each team's playoff lineup will differ from what they had over the course of the season. Add five months of Trot Nixon (1240 OPS in September) and subtract Jose Guillen from the Angels and I'd give the edge to the Sox. Mueller and Glaus being healthy are net pluses for each team as well.
The bullpen edge for the Angels is huge. Timlin and Embree seem to give up baserunners every inning and Foulke has looked vulnerable lately. The posiitve for the Red Sox is that their lineup will probably not be as intimidated as most teams are. What a great time of year!
There's speculation that Guillen might be back for the series.
You mean the Angels' 2003 championship team, right? I seem to remember my hometown team winning the World Series in 2001.
Actually, you are both wrong - i seem to remember being at game 7 when the Angels won the World Series in 2002.
So the teams have equal offenses on the road... then maybe their inherent talent/skill is equal. However, the Sox will presumably get 2 games at their park that they are "built for" and score more runs at. So while the teams are evenly-matched in Anaheim, Boston has a significant advantage in Boston.
And given the fact that Boston's 1 & 2 starters for the Anaheim games are the second-best pitcher in the AL and the best pitcher in the history of baseball (at least thus far), I think I like Boston's chances.
They dug up Walter Johnson? You'd think he'd play for the Angels, being from Fullerton and all.
I can't wait for the actual game to play! All this speculating has got me anxious.
Of course, two of the games are actually at Fenway.
I think you are way off on this series. Who is going to hit for Anaheim besides Vlad? Anderson, Glaus, and Erstad have all had below-average seasons and are all coming off injuries. I don't like their chances against two games of Schilling.
Also, I think Anaheim is at a big disadvantage because Escobar has clearly been their best pitcher this season, yet he will only pitch in Game 3. Road stats be damned -- VORP normalizes for all conditions and parks, and VORP tells me that Manny, Ortiz, Damon, and Varitek will crush Washburn and Colon no matter where they pitch. Call me a stathead, but Boston has too much pop -- and Anaheim not enough.
I say Sox in 4.
Comes down to this...
If you think Schilling beats Washburn and that the Sox can win once against Colon/Escobar/Lackey, than Game 5 pits Schill and Washburn again.
Anything can happen but I think this is a really tough draw for Anaheim, especially sans ideal starting pitching alignment.