Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
October 01, 2008
ALDS, Red Sox Versus Angels

The following table compares the 2008 seasons of the Red Sox and Angels, opponents in the ALDS.

AL Ranks
2008Red SoxAngels
Runs/Game5.22 (3rd)4.72 (10th)
Batting Avg..280 (2nd).268 (7th)
On-Base Average.358 (1st).330 (11th)
/Slugging Pct..447 (3rd).413 (9th)
ERA4.01 (4th)3.99 (3rd)
Strikeouts/9 IP7.4 (1st)6.9 (6th)
Walks/9 IP3.4 (9th)2.8 (3rd)
HR/200 IP20.3 (4th)22.0 (7th)

Looking at the above numbers, one might believe that the Red Sox, not the Angels, posted the best record in the American League. Boston outscored their opponents by 151 runs, the best in the AL, while the Angels came in at +68, sixth in the league. That 68 run difference is the smallest ever for a team that won 100 games (New York Yankees, 2004, +89). Not surprisingly, the Angels held the lowest margin of victory (average run difference in wins) in the majors, +2.83 runs per win. That was tied with San Francisco, with Houston, Seattle and Washington rounding out the bottom five. In other words, teams that post a low margin of victory tend to be among the worst teams in the majors.

Near the top of the chart? The Boston Red Sox at +3.96 runs per win. The Red Sox hammer their opponents when they win. Only the Twins, at +4.00 did better. Fans of Detroit and Atlanta should note both teams made the top five. Their horrible records in one-run games pulled them down. Note Boston won 22 of 45 one-run games while the Angels took home victories in 31 of 52 contests.

The small margin of victory caused the Angels to acquire Mark Teixeira. With Mark improving the offense a bit, the average margin of victory increased to 3.11.

The Red Sox are great on both sides of the ball. The Angels offense and defense matched more often, however as LAnaheim scored just enough to win. This should mean Boston is the better team, but the Angels dominated the season series:

Head to Head
2008Red SoxAngels
Wins18
Runs/Game3.676.78
Walks3029
Home Runs1115

They only faced Matsuzaka and Lester once each during the regular season, but hit both very well. This is the secret of the Scioscia teams; put the ball in play and see what happens. The Red Sox staff, the best staff at striking out batters in the AL, managed to strike out just 5.9 Angels per nine innings. That put more balls in play that usual against Boston, and those balls found holes in the defense. The Angels offensive philosophy counteracts a Boston defensive strength.

I have no doubt Boston is the better team. Player the 2008 season millions of times, and the Red Sox would win more games the the Angels in the great majority of those seasons. The Angels, however, fit their pieces of offense and defense together well. For example the Angels exceeded their Runs Created prediction by 0.1 runs, while the Red Sox fell 0.3 short of theirs. This is a difficult series to call, but I give the Angels the edge, with a 55% chance of LAnaheim going on to the ALCS.

Red Sox batters vs. Angels, 2008.

Angels batters vs. Red Sox, 2008.

Red Sox pitchers vs. Angels, 2008.

Angels pitchers vs. Red Sox, 2008.


Posted by David Pinto at 09:04 AM | League Division Series | TrackBack (0)
Comments

i hope the angels completely destroy the sox.

Posted by: Camas at October 1, 2008 02:29 PM
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