March 10, 2009
MIT Conference
Sal Baxamusa summarizes the MIT's Sloan School of Business Sports Analytics Conference. I get a mention:
Baseball Musings blogger David Pinto said that the effectiveness of the shift at neutralizing lefthanders suggested that more hitters should attempt to dunk or bunt the ball the other way. Rehman was not optimistic, saying that for players it was a buy-in and ego issue that may not be worth broaching. He made a good point: how do you convince a slugger to dunk the ball the other way rather than rip a 400-foot bomb to right?
My main point was the free base was worth a lot. In other words, why would a hitter trade a near 1.000 OBA just to be macho and pull the ball? I understood Rehman and Pupura's point that it's difficult to tell a hitter to go the other way. Successful baseball, however, is all about making adjustments, so the players should want to adjust to the shift.
It's like the argument about walking Barry Bonds. It's a bad idea to walk Barry Bonds; you're increasing his team's offense, not decreasing it. The same with hitting against the shift. It's a free time on base. It helps, it doesn't hurt, and it's even better than a walk, since anyone on first is going to end up on third since no one is there to cover the base.
You can find my posts on the conference starting here and working backward.
Posted by David Pinto at
10:38 AM
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While I agree with the idea of trying a bunt against the shift with the bases empty, I'm not sure I agree in the case of a man at first. I'm not convinced the guy at first gets two bases, unless you're assuming the bunt gets well down the line into left field.
A bunt the pitcher can get to could easily turn into a DP, as guys who are shifted are not typically fleet of foot. A bunt that goes down the baseline will result in the third baseman heading that way, plus the SS heading for 3rd. Logically, the SS should be able to get to 3rd before the runner from 1st. Certainly, some guys with a good jump may make it to third, but my guess is they'd usually be held with two guys in the area. Finally (and this works against ever asking these guys to bunt), most of the guys who are overshifted haven't bunted since Little League, so it's questionable how effective they could even be. I've seen Ortiz try it a couple times, and it's not pretty.
Still, I'd love to see your approach adopted. It'd be nice to have it tried more frequently so we could have actual statistical evidence rather than conjecture.
I don't think it has to be a bunt...just a conscious effort to put the ball in play to the opposite field.
The most significant advantage that I can see is that after a batter shows an ability to do it, that teams will be forced to move back to playing a straight-away defense which will free up the batter to be more pull oriented.
These guys are very good at what they do and have an ability to force themselves to swing a touch later and go the opposite way. Ryan Howard always seems to improve as the year goes on and he gets back in the mindset of staying back and trying to go the other way (granted, he has the power to take those pitches out of the park the other way, but the approach is what's important). I agree with David that I'd like to see more players attempt to do this in the future.
Practice. If anyone cannot get a bunt down when there is no third baseman to field it he should not be on the field.
Not to mention that if you do it enough, they end up playing you straight up and you will not be at a disadvantage anymore for your pull-happy tendencies
Take Ryan Howard - I know the Phillies would not have won as many games if he did this. His HR/AB would plummet and he'd be a $18million singles hitter. Teams would never stop shifting just because he got on first base. The Phillies would need two or three walks or base hits to get him in, and would lose all those home runs. It's not like these home run hitters that do this can steal a base and score on a single or even score from first on a double - they clog the bases.
I take my chances with a hard liner to the second baseman in short right. Especially with men on and any outs. Go ahead and game winning home runs matter more than standing on first with your helmet in your hand after a getting stranded.