March 07, 2009
MIT Hot Hand
John Huizinga is now speaking on the hot hand in basketball. It's a good mathematical presentation with probabilities and p-values. Very interesting so far.
Update: One of the interesting things coming out of this is that John and his colleague created an NBA database based on chances, where a chance is essentially a continuous possession of the ball. Possessions can have multiple chances as balls go out of bounds or there are non-shooting fouls and offensive rebounds. It's a great way of modeling the game, where events occur within chances.
Update: Players are less likely to make a shot after making one. Also, they rush the next shot. The player is also more likely to take the team's next shot, especially a player who handles the ball. It's not defense that clamps down, it's the offense not taking as a good a shot.
Update: No evidence of hot hand, but NBA players play like they think there is.
Posted by David Pinto at
01:03 PM
|
Statistics
|
TrackBack (0)