Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
March 07, 2009
MIT Hot Hand

John Huizinga is now speaking on the hot hand in basketball. It's a good mathematical presentation with probabilities and p-values. Very interesting so far.

Update: One of the interesting things coming out of this is that John and his colleague created an NBA database based on chances, where a chance is essentially a continuous possession of the ball. Possessions can have multiple chances as balls go out of bounds or there are non-shooting fouls and offensive rebounds. It's a great way of modeling the game, where events occur within chances.

Update: Players are less likely to make a shot after making one. Also, they rush the next shot. The player is also more likely to take the team's next shot, especially a player who handles the ball. It's not defense that clamps down, it's the offense not taking as a good a shot.

Update: No evidence of hot hand, but NBA players play like they think there is.


Posted by David Pinto at 01:03 PM | Statistics | TrackBack (0)
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