Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
October 27, 2005
Drug Rumors

Mr. Irrelevant alerted me to rumors of an AL Playoff outfielder testing positive for steroids. The story starts at Deadspin, and Will Carrol confirmed it on Sports Bloggers Live:

Carroll: "I really can't talk about it right now. It should be coming out within the next two weeks."

SBL: "Is this a name we're actually going to care about?"

Carroll: "Yes."

SBL: "Is it a World Series champion?"

Carroll: "I really can't talk about it."

SBL: "I would hope not, because that might turn those White Sox black... Will, cough once if he's on the White Sox... Cough twice if it's Gary Sheffield."

Carroll: "I was involved in the appeals process so I can't comment at all."

So we know one of a dozen outfielders on one of the AL playoffs teams is in trouble. Which one?

First of all, we probably don't care about Aaron Rowand. That leaves eleven. I doubt it's Bernie Williams given his poor offensive year overall. Ten left.

Podsednik? He did have two post-season home runs after none during the regular season. Sheffield had injury trouble toward the end of the season. Maybe he needed a boost.

Vlad? Maybe the distraction of the appeal was responsible for his post-season performance. He sure didn't hit like a player on steroids. In a way, I hope it is Guerrero, because it will be another nail in the coffin of steroid use actually making a difference.

My money, however, would be on Steve Finley. I thought Finley was through after the 1998 season. He put together back-to-back years of low OBAs. He was 33, and it's not at all unusual for players to disappear from the majors at that age. But instead, he goes to Arizona, starts getting on base again, and starts hitting home runs like he never did before. He also played a long time with Ken Caminiti. Maybe, with Steve's career falling apart, he decided to seek some advice from his long time Astros/Padres teammate. It would explain a lot. Maybe he went off them this year as the drug policy got serious, but needed the extra boost when he struggled. I guess we'll know in a week or so if this speculation is correct.


Posted by David Pinto at 06:59 PM | Cheating | TrackBack (3)
Comments

Saw this story last night...and I'm trying not to speculate too much about who it is because it involves someone from a team I care about. I was thinking Sheffield, Manny (because he seems to me to be that oblivious), Finley, Dye, or MAYBE Berkman. No one's numbers would suggest it, but those names we care about.

Posted by: Benjamin Kabak at October 27, 2005 07:40 PM

Also, Johnny Damon...his name was tossed around during the summer....

Posted by: Benjamin Kabak at October 27, 2005 07:59 PM

Will Carrol spread (if not started) another one of these rumors that never came true over the summer - why should we believe him this time?

Posted by: JC at October 27, 2005 08:01 PM

Hey, at least he got the Pete Rose reinstatement story before anyone else!

Oh, wait......

Posted by: sjs1959 at October 27, 2005 08:56 PM

ben dude,

berkman is in the NL!!!!!

lisa

Posted by: lisa gray at October 27, 2005 09:03 PM

How would will Carroll be involved in the appeals process? Anyone know?

Posted by: Nate at October 27, 2005 09:16 PM

Lisa: Yeah, brain fart there on my part.

Nate: Carroll consults for a lot of MLB teams. Despite BP's seemingly insular attitude, a lot of those guys have worked and do work with teams. It's quite likely that Will with his knowledge of baseball injuries and drug policies served on an arbitration panel as a resident expert. I'm intrigued to see how this story plays out.

Posted by: Benjamin Kabak at October 27, 2005 09:30 PM

Steve Finley is an interesting theory. Only one flaw. He doesn't fall into the "name someone cares about" category.

If it is Johnny Damon, that might put a damper on that 5-year deal he's looking for, now wouldn't it?

Posted by: Greg at October 27, 2005 09:30 PM

well, if it's finely, sure do prove that roids don't bulk you out. or make you any good - he was HORRIBLE this year

Posted by: lisa gray at October 27, 2005 09:46 PM

Didn't Dye and the White Sox in general seem a little too down after winning the Series? Maybe I'm crazy, and maybe it was just the fact that it was a boring Series making me look down on the whole thing, but they didn't seem as excited as they should've been, all things considered. But I'm probably reading WAY into things. If it was Dye, that really sucks, but I'm just going to ignore this until something official drops.

Posted by: JeremyM at October 27, 2005 09:51 PM

I agree that Finley was on the juice in AZ, but I don't think he falls into the category of anyone we care about. If it happens to be a member of the White Sox -- especially Scott Podsednik -- then perhaps they should change their name to the Black Sox permanently.

Posted by: Robb at October 27, 2005 10:19 PM

How about Hidekei "Shemp" Matsui?

Posted by: Yankee Despiser at October 27, 2005 10:56 PM

I'm not sure about him being someone people care about, but why hasn't anyone mentioned Garrett Anderson? The only hits he got during the playoffs were extra bases, and he fought injuries all year, so maybe he added steroids to his arthritis medication.

Posted by: JudyB at October 28, 2005 02:45 AM

Chances are, if the appeals process recently happened (during this past week or two), then the player wasn't taking steroids during any round of the playoffs because he'd been caught before it.

I'm thinking about Palmero getting suspended in late July or early August, but the test he failed was from about 2 or 3 months earlier. So this player probably failed a test in June or July? He's likely kept himself clean since then, just for the sake of feigning innocence or keeping his sentence from being harsher, etc?

That makes sense to me. I highly doubt this player was on steroid during the playoffs.

Posted by: Devon at October 28, 2005 07:48 AM

So I guess the question then would be - which of those outfielders had a drop in performance late in the season? say...during august or september?

Posted by: Devon at October 28, 2005 07:49 AM

Any assumption that poor performance makees a candidate less likely to be the culprit or that a late season drop-off may be an indicator of guilt assumes that steroids were helping to begin with, or that, if they were, stopping their use would have an immediate negative impact on results. None of this is really proven.

But man, it would suck for baseball if it was Dye, or any of the White Sox, really. After the circus that was Giambi in the beginning of this season, if it's a Yankee, he should be drawn and quartered. Oh wait...the NY press WILL draw and quarter him in it's a Yankee.

And anyway...whoever it is...he's an idiot.

Posted by: Dave S. at October 28, 2005 08:07 AM

If my theory holds water, it looks like either Bernie Williams, Trot Nixon, ot Johnny Damon.

Checking SLG % for the AL outfielders in the playoffs...

Podsednik's went up in September to about his normal level, after an August slump.

Dye did the same thing. Slumps in April and August, rising out of it in September to about his normal level for the rest of the season.

Rowand, wasn't as consistent during the season, but his September SLG was significantly worse than his August high. Altho his September number, is almost exactly what he was doing earlier in the season.

Anderson's SLG dropped HUGE from .495 in June to .343 in July, but steadily rose through the rest of the season.

Guerrero was inconsistent, sometimes having a SLG % in the .600+, but sometimes being under .400. Don't know what to think of that, but he did do well in September.

Finley had a SLG % of .500+ in both May and September, so he doesn't look like a candidate either.

Matsui increased a lot of his numbers from August - September.

Sheffield did drop from August to September, but not quite to his lowest of the year.

Williams dropped to a .248 SLG % in September! WOAH! His lowest of the whole season. That's a 241 point drop from the month before.

Damon's SLG dropped significantly from July to August and stayed down in September.

Nixon's SLG dropped big from August to September. Granted he was out most of August but he did play the last week of that month and sported a .520 SLG. He'd only have a .323 SLG for September though. Well below his season average.

Ramirez rose about 40 points from August to September, even though his BA slipped down a bit.

Posted by: Devon at October 28, 2005 08:29 AM

Devon: Your theory holds water only if steroids have a direct correlation to a player's offensive output. That hasn't been shown yet to be the case at all. So that's just pure idle speculation on your part.

Posted by: Benjamin Kabak at October 28, 2005 08:35 AM

Can't be Sheff. He doesn't have an agent.

Posted by: Jen at October 28, 2005 09:31 AM

Assuming Carroll's story isn't just garbage - a big assumption - I find it hard to believe that any but hardcore baseball fans would care much about Finley. You'd probably have to tell most casual sports fans who he is. Not quite Carlos Almanzar, but hardly one of the sport's big names.

The much higher-profile Gary Sheffield seems more likely, agent or no. He's already admitted taking steroids "unknowingly." And if we're going to play guilt by association - Finley with Caminiti, for instance - Sheffield associated for a long time with a certain San Fran outfielder.

Posted by: Casey Abell at October 28, 2005 10:48 AM

well,

it's not like will carroll is a "reliable source"

reminds me more of a girl i knew in school who would start rumors and every now and then one turned out to be true - luck or unluck?

so lets don't worry about it because sooner or later mlb will release the name if there IS a name

Posted by: lisa gray at October 28, 2005 11:29 AM

Will's not the source of the rumor. USA Today is the source of this rumor. Will simply fanned the flames a bit because he may or may not have been involved with the appeal. With his expertise, it's likely that he's involved with the appeals process, but you never know. I didn't realize Will Carroll had such a reputation as a steroid rumor-mongerer. He seems fairly professional to me and not out for attention...

Posted by: Benjamin Kabak at October 28, 2005 11:42 AM

wait a minute, if steroids don't affect a players offensive output, then why does anyone get suspended for using them? That'd be stupid to be suspended for a substance that doesn't affect your game .

Posted by: Devon at October 28, 2005 11:51 AM

Suggesting that Will Carroll isn't a reliable source is asinine -- he's one of the best baseball reporters out there.

As to who the offender might be, it's just human to speculate. I agree that it's relatively pointless to examine the numbers in this case...we don't have any idea when the player was most benefited by steroids or what exactly he was taking.

Finley is a workout nut. I wouldn't put it past him. With that said, I'm going with Gary Sheffield.

Posted by: Alex Carnevale at October 28, 2005 12:09 PM

There may be a bit of a geographical bias in the comments that no one would care about Finley.

Posted by: Capybara at October 28, 2005 12:11 PM

I'm no doctor, but I'm pretty sure that steroids stay in your system long after you use them. After all, wasn't that Mike Morse's excuse as to why he kept testing postive a full year after ceasing to use them? If that is the case, it only stands to reason that the "boost" from the 'roids would still be in your system in August and September if you stopped using them in July. So I don't think the numbers will give us much info.

As for Jermaine's demeanor after the WS, well, that's just "Jermaine being Jermaine". He's a low-key guy.

Posted by: Melissa at October 28, 2005 12:49 PM

I agree with Capybara. Finley's been an overrated player for a very long time, and my experience is that people care about overrated players (which is why they are overrated).

Posted by: David Pinto at October 28, 2005 01:16 PM

Devon: Ok, I misspoke. It's not that steroids don't cause a boost in offense. It's that no one knows how much of an effect steroids have so it's nearly useless to look at someone's stats and conclusively accuse anyone of steroid use. Do steroids help on offense? If so, then look at age comparisons across players in different decades. Do they help allow a player's body to make it through the grueling season? If so, look at historical month-by-month splits.

Either way, you get a lot of numbers that, depending on how you spin them, may or may not suggest steroid use. It's hard to state, as you did, that any of those players listed used steroids based on stats alone. Bernie had a bad September? Well, he's old and hurt. Damon? Also hurt, playing with a very bad shoulder. Nixon? Hurt. There are plenty of reasons for OPS drops in September at the end of a VERY long season, and I would hardly point to steroids as being chief among them.

Posted by: Benjamin Kabak at October 28, 2005 01:19 PM

Steroids really haven't been proven to increase performance. People just assume that they will, because they make it easier to build muscle tissue and strength, and because anecdotal evidence suggests that users have increased hitting power. They're illegal ostensibly because they MAY help, because even to mortals they require an MD Rx in order to be legally administered, and because they may also cause injury to the user. But I think they're REALLY illegal in MLB because of the whole "kids will use them if pros do" nonsense that the morally high-horsed like to spout. "If that kid hadn't seen Barry Bonds, he wouldn't have taken steroids, then stopped, then gotten depressed, then killed himself. It's Barry Bonds' fault, consarnit!!" But there really hasn't been any published study that shows the impact of 'roids on the game. Certainly, cessation of use/timing of reduced/altered effects haven't been quantified, and I think looking through player monthly splits to try and figure who it may have been is like so much p***ing in the wind.

Posted by: Dave S. at October 28, 2005 02:12 PM

Take a poll of 100 casual sports fans, and ask them who Steve Finley is. My guess is that you'll get at least 90 blank looks. A poll of 100 randomly selected people might get 95 blank looks. Maybe 99.

A similar poll on, oh, Barry Bonds would probably get different numbers.

And I never cared any more or less about any player because somebody thought he was overrated or underrated or any-rated.

Posted by: Casey Abell at October 28, 2005 02:41 PM

Hey, I'm the host of the show -- www.sportsbloggerslive.com -- where Carroll made these comments, and I feel compelled to post in defense of the man. He's been on our show a half-dozen times this season and has never said anything that was overly unreliable, self-serving, etc. Obviously, I trust him on this or I wouldn't have posted this stuff on my blog (www.misterirrelevant.com), and I don't think David would have either. Best, Jamie

Posted by: Jamie at October 28, 2005 02:46 PM

Well, it's nice to know that he's not "overly" unreliable. We'll find out soon enough if he's reliable at all. Meanwhile, speculation about the identity of the player (if any) involved is completely unreliable...including my own comments about Sheffield. So from now on, I'll just sit back and see if anything develops from this rumor, as we've done with so many other steroid rumors over the summer.

Posted by: Casey Abell at October 28, 2005 02:55 PM

Jamie,

I take it you've never talked with Will about Pete Rose.

Posted by: kevin at October 28, 2005 03:42 PM

Will told a number of folks in the middle of the summer that several big names who had tested positive were about to be revealed. Nothing happened. I offered to bet at least one person that the rumor would amount to nada, but they turned me down.

I'm not suggesting that Will is always full of it; I think he does have some real sources. But his record certainly isn't any better than, say, Matt Drudge's, so you can't take his word as gospel. You gotta at least apply a smell test. There were parts of the Rose rumor that never came close to passing the smell test; someone screwed with Will on that one.

As others have noted, this isn't Will's rumor, though, it's Sports Weekly's (not the daily USA Today's).

Posted by: Matt Serranco at October 28, 2005 06:34 PM

Updated information posted on Mr. Irrelevant indicates, from a source close to the rumor, that the alleged steroid user is NOT a member of the White Sox. Sorry to disappoint all of you looking to further discredit the teams championship run. As if White Sox fans haven't heard enough from fans whining about the umpiring calls.

My personal opinion--based on the latest blog suggesting no White Sox have tested postive, and old thread indicating it's someone "we'd care about," I'm putting money on it either being Guerrero or Damon.

Posted by: KMan at October 28, 2005 10:43 PM

NOT SO FAST ON THE SHEFFIELD FRONT!

Although Sheffield represented himself when he got into contract with negotiations with the Yankees, he does IN FACT have an agent, Rufus Williams. It was Williams who went to the police about the extortion attempt on Sheffield and his wife at the end of last season.

http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/005734.php
http://abclocal.go.com/wls/story?section=News&id=2398861

So don't count him out just yet!

Posted by: Chase at October 28, 2005 11:54 PM

Rufus Williams is not Gary Sheffield's baseball agent. He's a Chicago-based business agent for Sheffield and mainly his wife. He dealt with Gary over the recent extortion issue and hasn't done any work on the baseball front. But it's good to see you supporting a guilty-until-proven-innocent mentality there, Chase.

Posted by: Benjamin Kabak at October 29, 2005 12:35 AM

Kevin,

We have not talked to Will about Rose. What's the deal with that?

Best,
Jamie

Posted by: Jamie at October 29, 2005 03:37 PM

Benjamin -

I never said he was guilty nor would I. I just said not to rule him out.

SEVERAL news agencies refer to Williams as his "agent" (not business agent, but agent) just like the ABC story I posted. He represents Sheffield in many instances including handling talks with the media (including when the Yankees were negotiating with him) and, in the extortion case, the police. The rumor talks about an agent of a player - doesn't say financial agent, contract agent, or business agent.

Posted by: Chase at October 29, 2005 11:49 PM

Uh, Vlad? Late season power outage, huge name, AL playoff team OF.... Just saying, he matches the profile given. I know a lot of people think he's one of the good guys, apparently, but...

Posted by: dbt at October 30, 2005 02:15 AM

So Johnny is second in the lead of who used. I hope it's not him because he was the player who got me to like the sox. I did say at one time looking at a picture of Kapler that it might be that he did use, but then again there's Manny's erratic behavior and mood swings.
I think however it's the dude from the Angels in the Pepsi commercial. Not Alex, he's a good Christian boy who would never poision his body.

Posted by: Karen at October 31, 2005 02:33 AM

I am willing to bet my house it was Matt Lawton. He looks juiced.

Posted by: Turd Ferguson at November 3, 2005 02:15 PM

Hmm, seems no one considered a non-starting outfielder on an AL playoff team.

Here is an interesting thought. Why does it seem there are a lot of former Cubs who have been caught on steroids? Palmeiro. Lawton. Heredia. Santiago was on the juice. You know Sosa was juiced. They suck so bad they have to cheat to win more than 80 games.

Posted by: Bif Henderson at November 3, 2005 03:18 PM
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