Baseball Musings: Chicago vs. Houston

October 20, 2005

Chicago vs. Houston

	Chicago		Houston
2005	Value	AL Rank	Value	NL Rank
Runs per Game	4.57	9th	4.25	11th
Batting Average	.262	11th-T	.256	13th-T
On-Base Average	.322	11th-T	.322	12th
Slugging Percentage	.425	7th-T	.408	11th
ERA	3.61	1st-T	3.51	2nd

This looks like a dead-even series. The run predictor I use has these two opponents separated by .01 runs, 3.75 to 3.74.

Still, there are some things in my mind that work in the White Sox favor. The White Sox starters, as shown in the ALCS, are capable of going deep into a game. The Astros offense saw 3.68 pitches per plate appearance this season, about even with the Angels at 3.65. With the White Sox pitchers ability to throw strikes, my guess is Houston will average less that that in the series. When pitchers go deep, when you don't need to go to the pen, you eliminate the chance that some pitcher is going to have a bad day.

Clemens and Pettitte don't do this. Roger is a seven inning pitcher. Oswalt can run his pitch count high pretty quickly. It's unlikely Backe is going nine in game four. Yes, the Astros have a good pen, but as Lidge showed, when you see a pitcher everyday he can become hittable.

Secondly, the Astros did not play well on the road, while the White Sox were great away from home. The Astros were 53-28 at home, but the White Sox were 52-29 on the road. A strength for the Astros is negated by an equal strength for the White Sox.

Thirdly, the White Sox lineup is ordered better than the Astros. The four best hitters sit at the top of the Chicago order, while the third best OBA on the Astros bats 7th or 8th. We saw how well this worked for Chicago in the first innings of games 3 and 4 in the ALCS. It's not that I think the White Sox offense is that much better, but by bunching their best hitters together, they're more likely to have a big inning.

I have no idea how lack of work will effect the Chicago bullpen. If the starters pitch as they did in the ALCS it won't matter. If the offense can get a big lead it won't matter. And no matter what, the pen would have five days off even if they had pitched. My guess is that the pitching coach kept them working.

Both pitching staff are complimented by extremely good defenses. Neither side gives the opposition any extra hits on balls in play.

So there you have it. Two great pitching staffs, with the White Sox having one more great starter. Two excellent bullpens, with the Astros having the advantage of being battle tested in two series. Two below average offenses, but with Chicago putting their best hitters close together. Neither team gives the opposing offense an extra out. I'll give Chicago a slight edge, 52-48. At least we won't have to stay up until midnight on the east coast to see the end of the games. :-)

Posted by David Pinto at 10:40 PM | World Series | TrackBack (0)

Comments

Throw all the regular season stats out the window. They have very little to do with a seven game series. A manager will do whatever it takes to win a game. These guys are pumped up to the max and either play way above their game or fizzle out under the pressure. I think the White Sox have the advantage due to playing in a stronger league. I do like the Astors team. Garner is my type of guy. I hope it goes all the way to a game seven. I do think the Astros have the advantage in the pen. Time will tell!

Posted by: Bob at October 21, 2005 09:03 AM

I agree that it should be a pretty even series. Great pitching and average hitting. I think it's valuable to note that the Astros season stats can be a little misleading this season. They really struggled the first two months of the season trying to do without Berkman, and trying to sort out which rookies would replace Beltran and Kent in the lineup. Also, Bagwell was falling apart on his way to shoulder surgery.

Once the team settled the offensive stats look a little better, not great, but better. For example, the BA/OBA/SLG is .262/.331/.416 for the second half (with 4.41 runs per game). Also, the road record in April and May was something like 5-23, which leaves the road record for the rest of the year at a very respectable 31-22. That's a slightly higher winning percentage than the Sox had at home for the regular season. Also note that the Stros took 1 of 2 from the Braves in Atlanta and 2 of 3 from St Louis at Busch.

Posted by: Bruce at October 21, 2005 12:27 PM

You've got it pegged about right. Lurking in those numbers, though, is a plausible argument that Chicago is better. Chicago's ERA is only 0.10 worse even though they didn't face a single pitcher the batter's box in 90% of their games. On the other hand, you can use the same logic to argue that Houston's offense is a little better than it appears. But--Chicago's offense ranks better in the AL than Houston's does in the NL, so it didn't mean all that much. (Does Coors offset the lack of DH here?) Sooooo, White Sox in 6.

Posted by: Martin at October 21, 2005 01:50 PM

I don't think Coors offsets the lack of DH...the AL has its own close counterpart in the Ballpark at Arlington.

The only fooler I'd see in the ERA issue that Martin sites is that the pitchers the ChiSox are likely to see the most are way ahead of the curve in regards to the rest of the team: Clemens, Oswalt, Pettitte and Lidge are just so far out there. In contrast, ChiSox has its pitching more evenly distributed, with the variance between their best and worst rather a bit lower. That even distribution is better for a full season, as evidenced by their high win total. But when it's a short series, and the pennant's on the line, you're less likely to see any of Houston's chaff trotting out from the pen, especially in games 6 and 7 of the series, when Clemens will be out there as well.

I think the managers will play a big role in this, with Guillen over managing on the hitting side, killing rallies with early-game sac bunts or ill-advised stolen base attempts. Houston in 7.

Posted by: Dave S. at October 21, 2005 02:52 PM

CWS lose Everett in games 3-5. Pettitte and Clemens have pitched against the DH for most of their careers. I think the Sox offense is hurt more than the Astros' pitching in this regard.

Unless Garner lulled by sentiment, Houston gains Lamb or Lane in games 1-2 and 6-7. This won't measureably impact Sox starting pitching.

Both teams are battle tested. I think it is the Astros who are most likely to suffer a letdown if one occurs. The Sox nearly tossed away a fine season then rallied smartly in the final 10 days. They've had their letdown and are playing relaxed and confidently.

My heart tells me it is the Sox year. My head tells me not to bet against Clemens, Pettitte and Oswalt. How's that for waffling....

Posted by: Bill McKinley at October 21, 2005 02:54 PM

For what it's worth, Konerko has lit up both Pettite and Clemens in the course of his career.

As an old school Boston fan, however, I am hoping the Rocket silences all doubters in his last appearance on baseball's greatest stage.

Posted by: ben a at October 21, 2005 02:59 PM

Belgian style, Bill. I had a hard time writing "Houston in 7." It's such a toss-up. Hey, how's this for tangent:

Is either Craig Biggio or Jeff Bagwell HOF material? How about Frank Thomas? They are all certainly right on the cusp, with outstanding numbers...but...maybe...just...not...enough...? Good for all of them, anyway, to be in the World Series. It's a shame that both teams can't win it all this year.

Posted by: Dave S. at October 21, 2005 03:00 PM

Would it be wise to discount the Astros stats from their first 30 or 40 games? They were a very different team then and they don't play anything like that now so those stats just dampen the averages of the rest of the season and make them seem like a worse team than they actually are. So if these two teams are so even, perhaps the Astros are actually better than the full numbers reveal....

Posted by: Devon at October 21, 2005 03:52 PM

I apologize, but 90% of baseball is pitching and catching. Anyone could replace the Astros defense with a high school baseball team and still win the World Series. Remember, I said it , before the game began. That's right a high school baseball team!

Posted by: Farmer at October 21, 2005 06:03 PM

USAToday Sports uses the term "smart ball", as in "World Series fans in for a look at old-style baseball":

http://usatoday.com/sports/baseball/playoffs/2005-10-20-astros-sox-style-cover_x.htm

Posted by: daniel aleman at October 21, 2005 06:14 PM

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