Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
October 26, 2005
What are the Odds

A 3-0 series lead is golden:

After five hours and 41 minutes, after 17 pitchers combined to throw 482 pitches, the White Sox became the 22nd team to win the first three games of the Series. The first 21 teams to get that kind of head start went on to win the Series. Eighteen of those Series ended in sweeps, thus reducing the Astros to trying to reinvent themselves as idiots, Boston Red Sox-style.

One would figure that a team up 3-0 would go to five games about 1/2 the time. But given the propensity of sweeps after a 3-0 start, I wonder if this start isn't telling us something about the superiority of the sweeper. That in these cases, the team with the big lead is really the better team. The probability of evenly matched teams only going to a fifth game three times in 21 tries is 0.0007. It may be a demoralizing effect of losing three in a row, but teams get swept way too often.


Posted by David Pinto at 09:28 AM | World Series | TrackBack (1)
Comments

The thing that amazes me the most about these White Sox is their resiliency. I have gone to bed twice now with them ahead, figuring that they had the win. Only to wake up and find out that they lost the lead, and then came back and won it anyway. When was the last time that happened two games in a row?? They seem to find a way to win as they have since the last week of the season when they had to get past the Indians.

Posted by: Bob Eddy at October 26, 2005 12:04 PM
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