February 09, 2007
Schmidt and Strikeouts
Mike Schmidt takes aim at Pat Burrell and Adam Dunn over their strikeouts. He also criticizes himself:
"I don't know Adam Dunn, but from watching I'd say I don't know that a strikeout is as much a slap in the face as it was when I played," said Schmidt, the keynote speaker at Thursday morning's Leadership Breakfast at the Mandalay Banquet Center. "Or maybe I shouldn't have despised the strikeout as much as I did. You get three swats at a guy and there is no reason to strike out as much as I did.
"Now I know that if I had choked up on the bat with two strikes and hadn't been so aggressive and gave in to the pitcher, I wouldn't have struck out so much. And that's what guys like Dunn and Burrell have to realize," Schmidt added.
Schmidt said that with a game on the line pitchers don't mind facing guys like Dunn and Burrell because they know they can strike them out.
"How do I know this? Because when I played pitchers wanted me up there with the game on the line," he said. "They'd rather face me than a guy behind me like Greg Luzinski, who would put the ball in play.
"I look at Dunn and Burrell and I go, 'My God, if these guys cut their strikeouts down to 75 or 80, they put the ball in play 85 or 90 more times a year. That's at least 15 more home runs a year and at least 35 more RBIs a year.' "
We know that putting the ball in play gives a player a decent chance of reaching base. If Dunn followed Schmidt's advice and cut his strikeouts by 100 per season, he would be looking at 30 extra times on base. However, I do disagree with this:
What they are doing now is not great, it is mediocrity."
Over the last three seasons, Dunn posted win shares of 29, 25 and 18. Burrell posted 14, 24, 15. That's not mediocre. The fear for the two is that as they age, and they can't swing as hard, the ability to overcome the lack of contact decreases. So as their strength decline Schmidt's advice might keep them in the majors longer.
Balls, Sticks and Stuff looks at this graphically, and indeed as Schmidt aged, he put the ball in play more.
Posted by David Pinto at
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"They'd rather face me than a guy behind me like Greg Luzinski, who would put the ball in play.
Is that the same Luzinski who struck out at a higher rate than Schmidt did?
My B.S. detector is firing bigtime. I doubt there's a pitcher on the planet who would have rather faced Mike Schmidt than Greg Luzinski. Schmidt's going overboard in trying to make his point. Which has some validity, but I have to question his basic premise.
Can a player like Dunn or Burrell be expected to significantly change their hitting approach? They are big-risk, big-reward guys -- their advantage is being able to hit one out of the park at any time. It's very difficult for a player to radically adjust his approach; more often than not, they lose their fundamental skill while failing to acquire a new one. Schmidt did change his approach somewhat over the course of his career, but that's one of the qualities that made him a Hall of Famer. It's not something you can expect any player to do.
Besides, while there's a lot of complaining about the negative value of strikeouts (as opposed to outs on balls in play), the sabermetric studies all show that the additional negative value of a strikeout is negligible.
As a lifelong Philly fan, i have to agree with JVWalt. Schmidt has always been a douchebag. he's 60 years old, and NOW he realizes that choking up on the bat will prevent strikeouts ? i'm sure he knew that as a player. that's the first thing they teach you in little league for Pete's sake !
Schmidt suddenly has a "Do as I say, don't do as I do" attitude ?
Also, considering how much Dunn walks, can we really call his plate approach with 2 strikes "Aggressive"?
1976
Danny Ozark
"We tried to get Mike to move back from the plate a little, but he won't do it. He pulls away from the plate all the time and when he does hit the ball good, he usually pulls it foul."
From an article in TSN lamenting Schmidt's torrid 1976 strikeout pace.
I think what people fail to realize, especially those who want to spout about sabremetrics, about the negative value of K's is the pressure it puts on the rest of the lineup.....Forces the guys behind him into the "RISP with two out" category...K's, like many other stats, can be overrated, but context is key....Sometimes a grounder to second can be golden....And don't underestimate the value of putting the ball in play, Adam. Even with Dunn's walks, he's still never topped .394 OBP.....A sub 70% contact rate? That's pathetic....
Although Schmidt is crusty old buzzard, I still can't think of any pitcher who'd rather face Luzinski, though.....Weird comments by him....
Luzinski struck out once every 4.9 PA through his career - for Schmidt it was once every 5.2. What am I missing here?
A couple years ago (2004, I believe) Albert Pujols made a concious effort to strike out less. It actually ended up making him hit worse. Because, and he had a pretty bad start to the season (at least for him. I think he still hit around .300 until he abandoned his effort, at which point his BA skyrocketed back to normal).
1. I think it's pretty well established that Albert Pujols should not be used as the measuring stick for saying what other players should and should not be capable of. He's the best hitter in the game, and no matter how much Burrell changes his approach, it won't make him or anyone else Pujols-ish. Also, Jeremy, I have no idea what you're talking about. From '05 to '06, Pujols cut his strikeouts from 65 to 50, and his batting average went from .330 to .331. And he was in the .315 to .330 range pretty much all year.
2. I declare BS on this part of Schmidt's "argument:"
"My God, if these guys cut their strikeouts down to 75 or 80, they put the ball in play 85 or 90 more times a year. That's at least 15 more home runs a year and at least 35 more RBIs a year"
Incorrect. If they choke up and go defensive at the plate, they could cut down their K's. And in those at bats, they'll be David Eckstein, who is very tough to strike out, and has probably hit one 2-strike homer in his career. Choking up and defending the plate = ball put in play, but almost certainly not a powerful enough swing to hit a home run. There are situations when it would be good for Dunn/Burrell/etc to do this. But not all of them.