Baseball Musings: Historic Low

August 30, 2007

Historic Low

As mentioned in the previous post, the Padres have the highest run differential in the National League, +67. That struck me as a very low number for this far into the season, and indeed it is. The following table lists the best run difference in the National League from 1962 to the present, the era of the 162 game schedule.

Season	MaxDiff
2007	67
1982	81
1980	89
1981	94
1964	94
1989	99
2006	103
1984	104
1983	106
1969	109
1992	113
1966	118
1963	119
1973	120
1965	121
1968	122
1995	124
1987	125
1996	125
1970	127
1994	131
1979	132
1991	136
1967	138
2001	141
1978	154
1990	162
2002	167
2003	167
2005	171
1988	171
1985	175
2000	178
1972	179
1977	187
1962	188
1971	189
2004	196
1986	205
1993	208
1997	210
1976	224
1999	232
1974	237
1998	254
1975	254

The Padres are on a pace for a +82 run difference this season, which would just beat out 1982. Even strike years higher than 2007. And this is the problem with parity. It's nice to have lots of teams involved in a playoff race, but it would also be nice to have some good teams as well. There's no inspiring team in the National League this season, no one that's going to get a chapter in the history books. There are just teams that can win on any given day, or just as easily lose.

The good news for an owner who really wants to win is that it should be too difficult. If you're willing to do what the Marlins did in 1997, and spend money on quality free agents, dominating the NL in 2008 should be a piece of cake. The teams just aren't that good.

Posted by David Pinto at 08:23 AM | Offense | TrackBack (0)

Comments

There are plenty of teams in the NL that could merit being named in the history books if they were to, say, win the World Series...unfortunately, pretty much all of them would be under the heading "worst teams to ever win a championship". And if the Cardinals somehow win their division and get hot through the playoffs, people might even start calling them a dynasty...

Posted by: matthew at August 30, 2007 09:30 AM

The Padres also are second in the NL in home-run differential this year, behind only Milwaukee.

Posted by: Geoff Young at August 30, 2007 09:46 AM

To back up mattthew's point -- 5 of the top 6 "historic low" run differential leaders went on to win the World Series. Cards in '82, Phils in '80, Dodgers in '81, Cards in '64, and Cards in '06... Man, the Cards have snuck in some "cheap" championships...

Posted by: Brian Gunn at August 30, 2007 11:45 AM

If you're willing to do what the Marlins did in 1997, and spend money on quality free agents, dominating the NL in 2008 should be a piece of cake.

Well... that is kinda' what the Cubs are doing this year.

Posted by: dave at August 30, 2007 02:26 PM

Even in the craptacular NL, you still need pitching to win - and there just isn't much pitching available on the FA market this year.

Posted by: Tim at August 30, 2007 03:03 PM

Sorry, Soriano isn't Gary Sheffield.

Posted by: David Pinto at August 30, 2007 03:19 PM

Can't have your cake and eat it, too. Can't have great teams and lots of teams contending. The AL East is the anti-parity division, with two really rich, er, good teams running away from the scrubs.

All in all, I'll take parity. It's nice that so many games in the NL are meaningful this late in the season. And I love it when an average team like last year's Cardinals gets hot in the postseason and wins it all. Just shows that almost any club can be a winner over a short stretch of games. Which gives hope to the fans of even the most downtrodden franchise when their club plays against a good team.

Posted by: Casey Abell at August 30, 2007 07:48 PM

To be fair, the Padres are in a low-scoring environment. They're giving up a lot fewer runs than anyone else--except, strangely, the Red Sox, who are fighting the DH.

Posted by: Syd Henderson at September 2, 2007 07:01 PM