Baseball Musings: Where are the Runs?

May 25, 2007

Where are the Runs?

Runs are down over .5 per game for May 2007 vs. May 2006, through May 24 (9.67 in 2006 vs. 9.13 in 2007). I checked with my good friends at STATS, Inc. and they tell me that the temperature difference between May 2006 and May 2007 is slight. Last year, the average temperature in May for games was 70.1 degrees Fahrenheit (with or without dome stadiums). This year, it's 69.9 degrees Fahrenheit. That doesn't seem like much of a difference to me. The weather looked like a good reason in April for the decline. It's looking like less of a good reason in May.

Posted by David Pinto at 10:33 AM | Offense | TrackBack (0)

Comments

Maybe we're finally starting to see the pitchers catching up with matching the offense. Sort of like the 1930's (or was it the 40's?) when the slider showed up and slowed down offenses. Although, I can't think of a new pitch to account for this, so maybe there's just better pitching coaching?

Posted by: Devon Young at May 25, 2007 11:33 AM

it may just be me, but it seems there are more guys who are first pitch fasball hitters than ever...plate discipline is almost nonexistent with all these guys trying to hit 40 homers or more a year..leadoff hitters in both leagues seem to think theyre sluggers now...the pichers arent necessarily more talented than usual, but theyre not stupid either...off-speed first pitches are common now, especially outisde and in the dirt, even to the 7 through 9 hitters these days...why not get a cheap first strike?

Posted by: glenn at May 25, 2007 01:00 PM

The most obvious explanation is that the ball's been deadened, at least a little. The major league batting line last year was .269/.336/.432. This year it's .259/.330/.407.

There have been small declines in batting average and on-base percentage - ten and six points, respectively. But the drop in slugging average has been a startling twenty-five points - much larger on a percentage basis than the declines in BA and OBP. Guys are getting on base almost as much as they did last year. But when they hit the ball, it's just not going as far.

They're openly messing with the ball in Denver. My guess is that the shennanigans aren't confined to the Mile High City.

But let's not get too exercised. Offense is still slightly above the average season since the AL opened for business in 1901. It's just lower than the bash-'em-silly 1993-2006 era.

Posted by: Casey Abell at May 25, 2007 02:15 PM

I think we need to wait, no?

2006 tals vs. 2007 YTD for R/G:
AL: 4.97 vs. 4.77.
NL: 4.76 vs. 4.36

If I recall, that AL gap was much wider in April, so that appears to be closing.

The NL is very signficant however, but for hte life of me I can't think of any reasons why the NL would change more dramitically than the NL.

Posted by: Lou Poulas at May 25, 2007 02:17 PM

This doesn't explain the diff from 2006 to 2007, but has anybody noticed how Coors isn't a real good hitters park any more? Baseball-reference.com says it's collapsed from a 131 rating in 2000 to a humidored 107 in 2007. Coors still favors the hitters a little, but nothing like before.

Just shows what messing with the ball can do. The change in Coors doesn't explain the drop in offense from 2006 to 2007, because the park has the same 107 rating for both years. But it does show that a little tampering with the horsehide really pushes numbers around. Maybe that's what we're seeing this year on a wider basis.

Posted by: Casey Abell at May 25, 2007 02:29 PM

Could some of the difference be the lack of thunderous stats from Pujols, Howard, Berkman, Atkins, Konerko, Thomas, V. Wells, etc.? I didn't do the math, but these are anomalous by large margins, no?

Posted by: ben at May 25, 2007 02:54 PM

Just looked at all the baseball-reference.com park factors so far this year. Surprise, surprise, PETCO is the worst for hitters, Great American is the best.

There are a few mild eyebrow-lifters. The Kansas City park is real good for hitters - best in the AL, in fact. Overall, the park has treated hitters very well since 2001. Dodger Stadium isn't nearly as nasty to hitters as it used to be at 102. And Philadelphia does favor the hitters, but not as extremely as everybody seems to assume, at 103.

Yankee Statdium like hurlers almost as much as PETCO, though you wouldn't convince the NY media of that. Those starters really have been bad. And Arizona is now about as good for hitters as Denver.

Posted by: Casey Abell at May 25, 2007 02:56 PM

Really, these year to year park factors are borderline meaningless in my mind. Unless there are changes to the ball (a la Coors Field and the humidor) park factors shouldn't fluctuate a lot from year to year.

Posted by: Lou Poulas at May 25, 2007 03:35 PM

We're probably on the right track with the humidor, but I think you guys missed this story in the offseason:

http://colorado.rockies.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070208&content_id=1798476&vkey=news_col&fext=.jsp&c_id=col

Everybody's using it now.

Posted by: Sean Ahmed at May 25, 2007 03:38 PM

30 humidors?!? Well... that would explain some things...

Posted by: Devon Young at May 25, 2007 05:14 PM

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