Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
June 15, 2007
Games of the Day

I'm interested to see the reaction Bonds gets in Boston tonight. Red Sox fans can be quite abusive, and there's not much room between a player in the on-deck circle and the expensive seats. Barry has the chance to add Julian Tavarez to pitchers against whom he's homered and Fenway Park to venues in which he's homered.

The Mets visit Yankee Stadium tonight as Oliver Perez faces Roger Clemens, with the Mets 1-9 in their last 10 and the Yankees 9-1. My good friend Jim Storer called to tell me today he heard the Mad Dog on WFAN say the Mets have a higher probability of being swept than they do of winning one game in the series. That's only true if you consider the last ten games as a meaningful representation of the winning percentages of the two teams. If you take their season winning percentages as more accurate, the highest probability is that the Mets take two out of three.

Jeremy Bonderman takes his undefeated record against the hot Phillies and Jon Lieber tonight. Opponents hit Lieber well in Philadelphia, with Jon giving up 130 points more in slugging percentage than on the road. Bonderman is walking less than two per nine innings, over a walk better than his career average.

One of the best pitching matchups of the day takes place in Colorado where James Shields shares the thin air with Rodrigo Lopez. Batters are hitting for power against Lopez in Denver, but he's only issued three walks in his four starts there, somewhat mitigating those extra-base hits. Shields yields a good number of home runs, but he also keeps base runners to a minimum with a .259 OBA against.

Finally, the Angels get to play in the city that bears their name as they travel to Los Angeles proper to face the Dodgers. Only Vicente Padilla owns a worse road ERA than Santana among pitcher with 30 innings away from home. Lowe's had the bad luck of pulling better starters than him lately. Despite a 2.31 ERA since May 1, he's lost two quality starts in that time and another in which he allowed four runs in eight innings.

Enjoy!


Posted by David Pinto at 12:29 PM | Matchups | TrackBack (0)
Comments

"That's only true if you consider the last ten games as a meaningful representation of the winning percentages of the two teams. If you take their season winning percentages as more accurate, the highest probability is that the Mets take two out of three."

If all games were equal, this would be true. But they're not. Circumstances were different when the Yankees lost most of their games and when the Mets won most of theirs. Now, Abreu and ARod are on fire, while Beltran, Delgado, and most met starters are ice cold.

If I were Vegas, I'd put my odds on the Yankees taking 2 of 3.

Posted by: Josh at June 15, 2007 03:01 PM

Question - Has Bonds been to Fenway since saying he wouldn't play in Boston because it's too racist for him?

Posted by: Paul at June 15, 2007 04:18 PM

Bonds never played a regular season game at Fenway.

Posted by: David Pinto at June 15, 2007 04:29 PM

Josh, there isn't really any such thing as 'on fire' or 'ice cold', barring mechanical problems. Check the Book.

Posted by: Jack at June 15, 2007 05:58 PM

Josh, there isn't really any such thing as 'on fire' or 'ice cold', barring mechanical problems. Check the Book.

Posted by: Jack at June 15, 2007 06:01 PM
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