Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
September 30, 2007
Games of the Day
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Photo: Anthony J Causi/Icon SMI

The start of the four big games are nicely staggered today to draw out the drama. It starts with a battle of lefties in New York as Tom Glavine hosts Dontrelle Willis and the Marlins at 1 PM EDT. With 35 post-season starts under his belt, I don't think Tom will be feeling any pressure today. Glavine has mixed results against Florida this season. He's pitched 11 1/3 innings, allowing one walk and one home run while striking out eight. But the Marlins did a good job when they put the ball in play, knocking out eighteen hits. Willis pitched poorly this season, but he's ending strong, coming off two fine outings versus contenders New York and Chicago. Righties walloped Willis all season, hitting .321 against him overall, but in those last two starts they're just 7 for 44, a .159 BA.

Next at 1:30 PM EDT, the Phillies continue their series with the Nationals. Once again, a veteran lefty takes the hill for the contender as Jamie Moyer faces Jason Bergmann. Jason's not a bad pitcher, he just tends to allow too many home runs. Even in his good September performance, he's allowed six home runs in 31 1/3 innings. In his two starts against the Nationals, Moyer walked seven in fourteen innings. It seemed to be effective wildness, however, as he allowed just ten hits and no home runs.

At 2 PM EDT, the Padres and the Brewers get underway with Brett Tomko facing Jeff Suppan. This is the game that has me excited for a four-way tie. The Padres need to lose for that to happen, and Tomko isn't a very good pitcher. He's pitched better for the Padres than for the Dodgers, however, only walking four in 23 innings of work. Suppan is at home, where his ERA is about a run and a half better than on the road, even though his K, BB, HR and hits allowed are similar. It turns out opponents hits .252 with men in scoring position at Miller Park, .360 when Jeff is on the road.

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Photo: Ed Wolfstein/Icon SMI

Then at 3 PM EDT, Doug Davis and Ubaldo Jimenez see if the Rockies can complete their comeback. The Rockies and Davis produced unusual stats this season. Davis allowed 12 walks and 23 hits in 17 innings against the Rockies, but only six earned runs, nine total. That's a lot of men left on base. But despite the 3.18 ERA, Davis only managed a 1-2 record against Colorado. After a very good August, Ubaldo's strikeouts tumbled and his walks and home runs rose. I suspect the managers will go to their bullpens early in this game.

Again, for the four-way tie to occur, the Mets, Phillies and Rockies must win and San Diego must lose. A San Diego win makes the Padres the wild card and eliminates the Rockies. If the Mets and the Phillies suffer the same fate today (win or lose), they play for the NL east in Philadelphia tomorrow. If the Padres lose and the Rockies win, and the NL East is either decided or both the Mets and Phillies lose, the Padres and Rockies play for the Wild Card in Colorado tomorrow. And there is the possibility of a three-way tie among the Mets, Phillies and Padres if the Rockies lose and everything else breaks right.

Enjoy and stay tuned!


Posted by David Pinto at 10:06 AM | Matchups | TrackBack (0)
Comments

David... just a quick thank you very much for that clear concise summary of todays scenarios.

Posted by: Trey Peiffer at September 30, 2007 11:12 AM
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