Baseball Musings: Game of the Day

September 30, 2008

Game of the Day

The Twins and White Sox finish up the regular season tonight as they play a 163rd game to decide the AL Central winner, the team to take on the Rays in the ALDS. Nick Blackburn matches up against John Danks. Both sport eleven wins on the season although Danks ERA stands over 0.6 runs lower than Blackburn's.

Both pitchers come into the game with 187 innings pitched, making their total directly comparable. Danks win in strikeouts and home runs. He lead Blackburn 155 to 93 in Ks. The extra balls in play off Blackburn show up in their batting average allowed. Danks comes in at .251, Nick .295. Blackburn allowed 22 home runs to John's 15.

Due to his low number of walks, however, 14 of the homers against Nick were solo shots. Danks didn't post the extremely low walk rate of Blackburn, but he was still very good. Twelve of his 15 homers allowed came with no one on.

Danks is simply the better pitcher. Combined with a rested Bobby Jenks, the White Sox hold the advantage on the mound. I could see winning today costing Chicago the first round, however. Danks is their best starter, but by pitching in the playoff game, he'll only be able to start once in the ALDS. If the Twins get by, however, they'll be able to go with a well rested Francisco Liriano in game one. A team can't win if it doesn't play, however, and the White Sox get the edge tonight.

Enjoy!

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Posted by David Pinto at 10:41 AM | Matchups | TrackBack (0)

Comments

The rested Bobby Jenks is cancelled by the rested - and better by over a hundred ERA points - Joe Nathan. And Minnesota's bullpen has been better than Chicago's in the second half, when Sox relievers have posted an ERA close to six.

If Blackburn can bob and weave through the first five or six innnings and keep Minnesota tied or close, the edge goes to the Twins. Chicago would be well-advised to put this one away early.

Posted by: Casey Abell at September 30, 2008 11:41 AM

Funny note: Coolstandings.com reckons that the White Sox improved their chances of making the playoffs from 28.7% to 61.8% - just by beating the Tigers yesterday.

What a difference a day makes (wink).

Of course, if you use "dumb" mode on the site, you get a 50% chance right now that Chicago goes to the postseason. I can believe that (wink again).

Posted by: Casey Abell at September 30, 2008 12:18 PM

This was brought up on ESPN Radio this morning.

Why is there a "play in" game at all? Why wouldn't head to head record be a tie breaker?
Also, why is home field determined by a coin toss? Again, why not head to head?
So Minn wins the season series with the Sox but have to play AT Chicago for the tie breaker.

Seems ridiculous to me.

Posted by: Boomer at September 30, 2008 01:04 PM

Tiebreakers are for football. With baseball there's no problem at all with playing an extra game, and there's a lot of fun in watching a one-and-out showdown. So why not do it?

I agree that home field should be determined on head-to-head records, with a coin flip only if those records are tied.

Posted by: Casey Abell at September 30, 2008 01:23 PM

Hasn't baseball always used a tie-breaker game to decide playoff/World Series spots? It seems perfectly legitimate to me, especially now that the teams do not play identical schedules.

I think the coin flips are used for planning purposes. Doesn't seem ridiculous to me.

Posted by: Mike L. at September 30, 2008 01:26 PM

Its not ridiculous that you can go 18-0 head to head with a team, but if you tie for the division lead, you very well might have to play a ROAD game in a do or die situation?

Coin flips should be dead last in tie breakers.

And yes Casey, I think as a fan, its great. I'm just thinking from a players perspective on this. Minn should be thinking "WTF, we beat them head to head, yet we have to go to THEM and play a do or die?"

Posted by: Boomer at September 30, 2008 02:12 PM

Name me one team that went 18-0 against another team and tied for anything. C'mon, now. With that kind of dominance comes championships.

I like the coin flip. A 10-8 advantage over the course of a season hardly equals dominance. Injuries, pitching matchups, and luck all play a factor in such a record. The coin flip has been doing the job for many years -- why change now?
We would never have seen this argument 30 years ago. It's part of the footballification of our national pastime.

Posted by: Tor at September 30, 2008 03:45 PM

The reason there is a coin flip is because the issue of the "where" and "when" has to be decided long before the official end of the season- for scheduling concerns. Certainly with an unbalanced schedule it may seem unfair to flip a coin but ultimately these matters must be sorted out ahead of time.

Posted by: John at September 30, 2008 03:55 PM

The only game in town.

Recently MLB has created some buzz by setting aside a couple of dates at the beginning of the season to play in Tokyo. Since they were the only games scheduled on those dates, the games got the undivided attention of America's baseball fans. Such games are rare. With 30 teams and doubleheaders now reserved almost exclusively for makeup games, every day during the regular season usually features at least four contests. Since 1980, only 33 regular-season dates have featured a single game.

Yesterday and today the White Sox have hosted games that were the only action on the major league baseball card. It's a great way to hog the highlights. Leaving aside the Tokyo Dome, no stateside ballpark has hosted back-to-back, regular-season singleton games since the conclusion of the 1962 tiebreaker playoff between the Giants and Dodgers at Chavez Ravine.

Posted by: Tor at September 30, 2008 06:01 PM

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